Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sandefjord v Aalesund

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 15:00 UTC

Final: Sandefjord 1–0 Aalesund

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sandefjord (Local)

Prediction 51.17%1.95fair odd
EV -3.80%
Edge -2.02%
Kelly -4.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.63%51.38%51.12%56.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.791.801.8859.88%55.97%55.56%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Aalesund (Visit)

Prediction 24.98%4.00fair odd
EV +15.64%
Edge +3.38%
Kelly +4.31%
Growth +0.674%

assuming max odds 4.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.97%24.84%24.94%26.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.743.754.6330.30%26.71%26.67%21.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.85%4.19fair odd
EV +2.56%
Edge +0.596%
Kelly +0.777%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.58%23.79%23.94%25.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.833.854.3030.77%26.12%25.97%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sandefjord (Local): 51.17%; Aalesund (Visit): 24.98%; Draw: 23.85%. For Aalesund (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.00. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.63, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.64%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.45%EV -11.99%E -6.97%K -16.65%G +0.000%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.97%EV +15.64%E +3.38%K +4.31%G +0.674%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.58%EV +2.56%E +0.596%K +0.777%G +0.020%3.0%2026-05-03 10:30
GTbets🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.27%EV -7.38%E -4.08%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -0.092%E -0.023%K -0.031%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.07%EV -6.26%E -1.59%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-03 14:40
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -10.45%E -5.97%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -1.34%E -0.339%K -0.454%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 14:45
Casumo🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -10.45%E -5.97%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -1.34%E -0.339%K -0.454%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 14:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -10.45%E -5.97%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -1.34%E -0.339%K -0.454%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 14:45
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -10.45%E -5.97%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -1.34%E -0.339%K -0.454%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 14:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -10.45%E -5.97%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -1.34%E -0.339%K -0.454%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 14:45
TABtouch🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -10.45%E -5.97%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -1.34%E -0.339%K -0.454%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 14:45
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -10.45%E -5.97%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -1.34%E -0.339%K -0.454%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 14:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -10.45%E -5.97%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -1.34%E -0.339%K -0.454%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 14:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -10.45%E -5.97%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -1.34%E -0.339%K -0.454%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 14:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -10.45%E -5.97%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -1.34%E -0.339%K -0.454%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 14:45
betPARX🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -10.45%E -5.97%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -1.34%E -0.339%K -0.454%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 14:45
1xBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.86%EV -5.85%E -3.18%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.22%EV -1.59%E -0.404%K -0.541%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 23.92%EV -4.83%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-03 14:50
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.42%EV -3.80%E -2.02%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.66%EV -2.09%E -0.533%K -0.716%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.93%EV -3.64%E -0.900%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-03 14:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.81%EV -11.99%E -6.97%K -16.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.29%EV -2.59%E -0.664%K -0.893%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -9.36%E -2.46%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-03 14:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.81%EV -11.99%E -6.97%K -16.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.29%EV -2.59%E -0.664%K -0.893%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -9.36%E -2.46%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-03 14:45
LeoVegas🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.79%EV -12.50%E -7.31%K -17.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.14%EV -2.59%E -0.664%K -0.893%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -10.55%E -2.81%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-03 14:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.84%EV -7.89%E -4.38%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -3.84%E -0.997%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -6.98%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 14:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.72%EV -4.31%E -2.31%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -5.09%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -6.98%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-03 14:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.72%EV -4.31%E -2.31%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -5.09%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -6.98%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-03 14:55
BetAnything🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.72%EV -4.31%E -2.31%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -5.09%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -6.98%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-03 14:55
BetUS🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.72%EV -4.31%E -2.31%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -5.09%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -6.98%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-03 14:55
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -6.36%E -3.47%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.09%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -9.36%E -2.46%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 14:40
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -7.89%E -4.38%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -5.09%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -6.98%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 14:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.09%EV -9.43%E -5.33%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -5.09%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -6.98%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 14:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.89%EV -14.55%E -8.71%K -21.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.24%EV -5.09%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.87%EV -11.75%E -3.17%K -4.35%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-03 14:45
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.71%EV -4.31%E -2.31%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -6.34%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.01%EV -5.78%E -1.46%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 14:54
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -6.36%E -3.47%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -6.34%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -6.98%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 14:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -7.89%E -4.38%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -6.34%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -4.59%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 14:45
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -11.47%E -6.63%K -15.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -6.34%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -4.59%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-03 14:40
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -7.89%E -4.38%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -9.36%E -2.46%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-03 14:45
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -7.89%E -4.38%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -9.36%E -2.46%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-03 14:53
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.07%EV -3.80%E -2.02%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -8.83%E -2.42%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -6.98%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 14:40
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.07%EV -3.80%E -2.02%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -8.83%E -2.42%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -6.98%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 14:40
Everygame🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.68%EV -7.89%E -4.38%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -8.83%E -2.42%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -10.55%E -2.81%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 14:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.12%EV -8.92%E -5.01%K -11.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -8.83%E -2.42%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -9.36%E -2.46%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-03 14:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.30%EV -5.33%E -2.88%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -6.98%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 14:54
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -5.33%E -2.88%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -9.36%E -2.46%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 14:45
William Hill🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -6.36%E -3.47%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -10.55%E -2.81%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 14:45
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -7.89%E -4.38%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -10.55%E -2.81%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 14:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.16%EV -14.03%E -8.35%K -20.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.34%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.49%EV -11.03%E -2.96%K -4.04%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-03 14:44
Bet Right🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.03%EV -10.45%E -5.97%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.16%EV -11.33%E -3.19%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.81%EV -10.55%E -2.81%K -3.84%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-03 14:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.59%EV -13.01%E -7.65%K -18.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.71%EV -11.33%E -3.19%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.70%EV -11.75%E -3.17%K -4.35%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-03 14:45
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.61%EV -7.89%E -4.38%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -6.98%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-03 14:56
PlayUp🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.70%EV -6.87%E -3.77%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.45%EV -11.75%E -3.17%K -4.35%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-03 14:55
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -7.89%E -4.38%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -11.75%E -3.17%K -4.35%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-03 14:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -7.89%E -4.38%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -11.75%E -3.17%K -4.35%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-03 14:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -7.89%E -4.38%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -11.75%E -3.17%K -4.35%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-03 14:45
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -7.89%E -4.38%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -11.75%E -3.17%K -4.35%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-03 14:40
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -7.89%E -4.38%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -14.13%E -3.93%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 14:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.42%EV -7.89%E -4.38%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -13.83%E -4.01%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.27%EV -6.98%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-03 14:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.13%EV -9.94%E -5.65%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.34%EV -16.33%E -4.87%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.53%EV -10.55%E -2.81%K -3.84%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-03 14:55
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.36%EV -11.47%E -6.63%K -15.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.40%EV -17.58%E -5.33%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.23%EV -10.55%E -2.81%K -3.84%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-03 14:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 48.63%EV -11.47%E -6.63%K -15.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.49%EV -17.58%E -5.33%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.88%EV -22.48%E -6.92%K -9.99%G +0.000%18.9%2026-05-03 14:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.20%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%1.2%2026-05-03 14:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.20%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%1.2%2026-05-03 14:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.20%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%1.2%2026-05-03 14:45
Matchbook1.93I 51.81%NM 51.20%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%1.2%2026-05-03 14:45
Smarkets1.92I 52.08%NM 51.17%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.87%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.96%1.8%2026-05-03 14:45