La escuela de los momios

Molde v Sarpsborg FK

2026-08-02 15:00 UTC — Eliteserien - Norway

Resultado del partido

34 corredores (10 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Molde (Local)

Predicción 55.25%1.81momio equitativo
EV -6.07%
Ventaja -3.57%
Kelly -8.68%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.91%55.40%55.15%57.31%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.561.651.671.7064.10%60.73%59.88%58.82%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Sarpsborg FK (Visitante)

Predicción 22.00%4.54momio equitativo
EV -2.53%
Ventaja -0.571%
Kelly -0.737%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.43

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.10%21.97%22.04%23.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.604.174.254.4327.78%23.99%23.53%22.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 22.75%4.40momio equitativo
EV -1.51%
Ventaja -0.348%
Kelly -0.453%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.40%22.63%22.81%23.12%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.704.034.004.3327.03%24.81%25.00%23.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (34 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet1.70I 58.82%NM 56.18%EV -6.07%E -3.57%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.43I 22.57%NM 21.56%EV -2.53%E -0.571%K -0.737%G +0.000%4.29I 23.31%NM 22.26%EV -2.42%E -0.563%K -0.735%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-26 16:10
NordicBet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.56%EV -6.07%E -3.57%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.22%EV -6.49%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.22%EV -3.33%E -0.783%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-26 16:55
Betsson1.70I 58.82%NM 55.56%EV -6.07%E -3.57%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.22%EV -6.49%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.22%EV -3.33%E -0.783%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-26 16:55
Fanatics1.67I 59.88%NM 55.37%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51%EV -5.39%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 16:00
Unibet1.67I 59.88%NM 55.24%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -6.49%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 15:05
TABtouch1.67I 59.88%NM 55.24%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -6.49%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 15:05
Grosvenor1.67I 59.88%NM 55.24%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -6.49%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 15:05
Unibet (NL)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.24%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -6.49%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 15:05
Casumo1.67I 59.88%NM 55.24%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -6.49%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 15:05
Unibet (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.24%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -6.49%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 15:05
BetRivers1.67I 59.88%NM 55.24%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -6.49%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 15:06
LeoVegas (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.24%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -6.49%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 15:06
betPARX1.67I 59.88%NM 55.24%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -6.49%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 15:05
ATG (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.24%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -6.49%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 15:05
Svenska Spel1.67I 59.88%NM 55.24%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -6.49%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 15:05
Tipico (DE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -9.79%E -2.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -6.74%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 20:00
Unibet (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -7.59%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 15:40
LeoVegas1.67I 59.88%NM 54.64%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -9.79%E -2.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.10%EV -10.15%E -2.57%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-26 15:40
Betway1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -11.99%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-26 16:35
Marathon Bet1.66I 60.24%NM 56.22%EV -8.28%E -4.99%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -4.73%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.46%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 15:55
Codere (IT)1.66I 60.24%NM 54.79%EV -8.28%E -4.99%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -9.79%E -2.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.03%EV -10.15%E -2.57%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-26 15:10
LiveScore Bet1.64I 60.98%NM 55.38%EV -9.39%E -5.72%K -14.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.63%EV -7.59%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.99%EV -10.15%E -2.57%K -3.44%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-26 15:05
Virgin Bet1.64I 60.98%NM 55.38%EV -9.39%E -5.72%K -14.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.63%EV -7.59%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.99%EV -10.15%E -2.57%K -3.44%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-26 15:05
FanDuel1.62I 61.73%NM 57.31%EV -10.49%E -6.48%K -16.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -3.19%E -0.725%K -0.938%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.59%EV -2.19%E -0.509%K -0.663%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-26 15:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.20%EV -10.49%E -6.48%K -16.93%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -4.73%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -1.51%E -0.348%K -0.453%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-26 17:01
betfred_uk1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -10.49%E -6.48%K -16.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -7.59%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -4.46%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 15:50
SportsBet1.61I 62.11%NM 57.04%EV -11.05%E -6.86%K -18.11%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -5.39%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.61%EV -3.33%E -0.783%K -1.02%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-26 15:50
Paddy Power1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -11.60%E -7.25%K -19.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -7.59%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -4.46%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-26 15:51
Betclic (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 54.80%EV -11.60%E -7.25%K -19.33%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 22.31%EV -13.53%E -3.44%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 22.89%EV -12.88%E -3.36%K -4.55%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-26 15:05
Unibet (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 54.61%EV -11.60%E -7.25%K -19.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.40%EV -14.19%E -3.64%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.99%EV -13.56%E -3.57%K -4.84%G +0.000%14.5%2026-07-26 15:04
Winamax (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 54.44%EV -11.60%E -7.25%K -19.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.23%EV -17.49%E -4.66%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.33%EV -11.29%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-26 15:10
PMU (FR)1.57I 63.69%NM 55.84%EV -13.26%E -8.44%K -23.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.38%EV -9.79%E -2.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.77%EV -12.43%E -3.23%K -4.36%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-26 15:05
Sky Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 54.76%EV -13.26%E -8.44%K -23.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.62%EV -16.39%E -4.31%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.62%EV -13.56%E -3.57%K -4.84%G +0.000%16.3%2026-07-26 15:50
Winamax (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 53.91%EV -13.81%E -8.85%K -24.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.36%EV -20.79%E -5.78%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.73%EV -15.84%E -4.28%K -5.87%G +0.000%18.9%2026-07-26 15:06
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.