Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Molde v Sarpsborg FK

Inicio: 2026-08-02 15:00 UTC

Final: Molde 3–3 Sarpsborg FK

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Molde (Local)

Predicción 58.70%1.70momio equitativo
EV -1.97%
Ventaja -1.18%
Kelly -2.93%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.67

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.56%58.73%58.63%59.91%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.501.591.591.6766.67%62.95%62.89%59.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sarpsborg FK (Visitante)

Predicción 19.20%5.21momio equitativo
EV +4.63%
Ventaja +0.849%
Kelly +1.04%
Crecimiento +0.048%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.82%19.22%19.25%21.65%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.674.655.4525.00%21.40%21.51%18.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 22.10%4.52momio equitativo
EV -0.109%
Ventaja -0.024%
Kelly -0.031%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.52

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.62%22.06%22.13%22.98%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.904.164.104.5225.64%24.07%24.39%22.12%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Molde (Local): 58.70%; Sarpsborg FK (Visitante): 19.20%; Empate: 22.10%. Para Sarpsborg FK (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.21. 4 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.45, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.63%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.59%EV -4.31%E -2.65%K -6.85%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.82%EV +4.63%E +0.849%K +1.04%G +0.048%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.59%EV -4.97%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-02 14:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.91%EV -4.90%E -3.03%K -7.91%G +0.000%5.43I 18.42%NM 17.87%EV +4.24%E +0.781%K +0.958%G +0.041%4.37I 22.88%NM 22.21%EV -3.42%E -0.784%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-02 14:55
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.87%EV -5.49%E -3.41%K -9.00%G +0.000%5.38I 18.59%NM 17.92%EV +3.28%E +0.610%K +0.749%G +0.025%4.34I 23.04%NM 22.21%EV -4.09%E -0.942%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-02 14:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.63%EV -4.90%E -3.03%K -7.91%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 18.06%EV +2.71%E +0.506%K +0.622%G +0.017%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.31%EV -4.31%E -0.995%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-02 14:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.99%EV -7.25%E -4.59%K -12.50%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -2.09%E -0.410%K -0.510%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -9.39%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 14:55
BetUS🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.51%EV -6.66%E -4.19%K -11.29%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.74%EV -3.05%E -0.604%K -0.754%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.75%EV -3.87%E -0.889%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-02 14:54
DraftKings🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.95%EV -5.49%E -3.41%K -9.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.98%EV -4.01%E -0.803%K -1.00%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.07%EV -4.97%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 14:40
FanDuel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.56%EV -7.84%E -4.99%K -13.75%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -4.01%E -0.803%K -1.00%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -4.97%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 14:34
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.62%EV -6.66%E -4.19%K -11.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -4.01%E -0.803%K -1.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -9.39%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 14:49
GTbets🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.69%EV -1.97%E -1.18%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.96I 20.16%NM 19.42%EV -4.78%E -0.964%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.88%EV -6.96%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-02 14:50
BetAnything🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.98%EV -5.49%E -3.41%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.18%EV -4.97%E -1.00%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.83%EV -3.87%E -0.889%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 14:55
NordicBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.15%EV -4.90%E -3.03%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.42%EV -6.89%E -1.42%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -7.18%E -1.71%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-02 14:49
Betsson🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.15%EV -4.90%E -3.03%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.42%EV -6.89%E -1.42%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -7.18%E -1.71%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-02 14:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.58%EV -9.01%E -5.81%K -16.38%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.72%EV -6.89%E -1.42%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -11.60%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-02 14:40
Bovada🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.64%EV -6.08%E -3.80%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -7.85%E -1.64%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -4.97%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-02 14:54
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.87%EV -5.49%E -3.41%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.41%EV -7.85%E -1.64%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -9.39%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 14:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.40%EV -9.01%E -5.81%K -16.38%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.18%EV -7.85%E -1.64%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.41%EV -4.97%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-02 14:54
SportsBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.63%EV -8.42%E -5.40%K -15.04%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.06%EV -7.85%E -1.64%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%EV -9.39%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-02 14:35
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -7.84%E -4.99%K -13.75%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -7.85%E -1.64%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -11.60%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-02 14:50
1xBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.04%EV -5.49%E -3.41%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.77I 20.96%NM 19.93%EV -8.43%E -1.77%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.03%EV -0.109%E -0.024%K -0.031%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 14:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.66%EV -6.08%E -3.80%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -8.81%E -1.86%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.58%EV -3.87%E -0.889%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-02 14:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.54%EV -7.84%E -4.99%K -13.75%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -8.81%E -1.86%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -0.551%E -0.122%K -0.157%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 14:50
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.21%EV -6.08%E -3.80%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -8.81%E -1.86%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -7.18%E -1.71%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-02 14:55
betano_uk🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.98%EV -9.01%E -5.81%K -16.38%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.25%EV -8.81%E -1.86%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -7.18%E -1.71%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-02 14:34
Bet Victor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.98%EV -9.01%E -5.81%K -16.38%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.25%EV -8.81%E -1.86%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -7.18%E -1.71%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-02 14:40
Everygame🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.35%EV -9.01%E -5.81%K -16.38%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.04%EV -8.81%E -1.86%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -11.60%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-02 14:35
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.66%EV -10.18%E -6.66%K -19.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.90%EV -8.81%E -1.86%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.44%EV -11.60%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-02 14:34
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.58%EV -7.84%E -4.99%K -13.75%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.78%EV -10.73%E -2.31%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.64%EV -6.08%E -1.43%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-02 14:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.72%EV -8.42%E -5.40%K -15.04%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.36%EV -10.73%E -2.31%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 22.91%EV -13.15%E -3.35%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-02 14:49
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.52%EV -7.25%E -4.59%K -12.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -11.69%E -2.54%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.72%EV -11.60%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-02 14:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.99%EV -9.01%E -5.81%K -16.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.54%EV -11.69%E -2.54%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -11.60%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-02 14:49
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.43%EV -7.84%E -4.99%K -13.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.39%EV -13.61%E -3.02%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%EV -4.31%E -0.995%K -1.29%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-02 14:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.20%EV -8.42%E -5.40%K -15.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.18%EV -13.61%E -3.02%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -7.18%E -1.71%K -2.24%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-02 14:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.10%EV -7.84%E -4.99%K -13.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.92%EV -13.61%E -3.02%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -13.81%E -3.54%K -4.76%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-02 14:44
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.10%EV -7.84%E -4.99%K -13.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.92%EV -13.61%E -3.02%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -13.81%E -3.54%K -4.76%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-02 14:49
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.10%EV -7.84%E -4.99%K -13.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.92%EV -13.61%E -3.02%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -13.81%E -3.54%K -4.76%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-02 14:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.10%EV -7.84%E -4.99%K -13.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.92%EV -13.61%E -3.02%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -13.81%E -3.54%K -4.76%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-02 14:45
Sky Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.73%EV -10.18%E -6.66%K -19.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.63%EV -13.61%E -3.02%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.65%EV -13.81%E -3.54%K -4.76%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-02 14:34
Unibet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.56%EV -4.31%E -2.65%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -15.53%E -3.53%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -9.39%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:35
TABtouch🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.56%EV -4.31%E -2.65%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -15.53%E -3.53%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -9.39%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:35
Grosvenor🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.56%EV -4.31%E -2.65%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -15.53%E -3.53%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -9.39%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.56%EV -4.31%E -2.65%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -15.53%E -3.53%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -9.39%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:34
Casumo🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.56%EV -4.31%E -2.65%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -15.53%E -3.53%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -9.39%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.56%EV -4.31%E -2.65%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -15.53%E -3.53%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -9.39%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:35
BetRivers🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.56%EV -4.31%E -2.65%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -15.53%E -3.53%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -9.39%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.56%EV -4.31%E -2.65%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -15.53%E -3.53%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -9.39%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:34
betPARX🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.56%EV -4.31%E -2.65%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -15.53%E -3.53%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -9.39%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:34
ATG (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.56%EV -4.31%E -2.65%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -15.53%E -3.53%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -9.39%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.56%EV -4.31%E -2.65%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -15.53%E -3.53%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -9.39%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -8.42%E -5.40%K -15.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -15.53%E -3.53%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -2.76%E -0.628%K -0.812%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-02 14:39
Bet Right🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.95%EV -9.60%E -6.23%K -17.77%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.28%EV -15.53%E -3.53%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -9.39%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-02 14:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.88%EV -6.08%E -3.80%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -16.49%E -3.79%K -4.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%EV -9.39%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-02 14:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.88%EV -6.08%E -3.80%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -16.49%E -3.79%K -4.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%EV -9.39%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-02 14:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.27%EV -9.60%E -6.23%K -17.77%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.87%EV -17.45%E -4.06%K -5.29%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.87%EV -4.97%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-02 14:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 56.77%EV -9.01%E -5.81%K -16.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.95%EV -19.37%E -4.61%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.28%EV -12.71%E -3.22%K -4.31%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-02 14:34
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.73%EV -11.95%E -7.96%K -23.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.65%EV -23.21%E -5.80%K -7.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.62%EV -7.18%E -1.71%K -2.24%G +0.000%15.5%2026-08-02 14:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 60.09%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.36%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.55%0.9%2026-08-02 14:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.65I 60.61%NM 60.09%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.36%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.55%0.9%2026-08-02 14:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 60.09%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.36%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.55%0.9%2026-08-02 14:50
Matchbook1.65I 60.61%NM 60.09%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.36%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.55%0.9%2026-08-02 14:55
Smarkets1.65I 60.61%NM 59.80%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.27%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.93%1.3%2026-08-02 14:55