Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lillestrom v Rosenborg

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 12:31 UTC

Final: Lillestrom 0–2 Rosenborg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lillestrom (Local)

Prediction 37.91%2.64fair odd
EV -1.44%
Edge -0.554%
Kelly -0.901%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.08%37.97%37.89%39.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.182.402.402.6045.87%41.75%41.67%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rosenborg (Visit)

Prediction 35.63%2.81fair odd
EV -0.959%
Edge -0.345%
Kelly -0.539%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.97%35.72%35.61%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.622.602.7842.02%38.22%38.46%35.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.47%3.78fair odd
EV +0.573%
Edge +0.151%
Kelly +0.205%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.84%26.32%26.51%27.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.473.503.8031.25%28.79%28.57%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lillestrom (Local): 37.91%; Rosenborg (Visit): 35.63%; Draw: 26.47%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.573%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.25%EV -1.44%E -0.554%K -0.901%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.25%EV -7.37%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.49%EV +0.573%E +0.151%K +0.205%G +0.001%3.2%2026-08-09 12:30
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.23%E -2.09%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.93%E -4.37%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -0.750%E -0.200%K -0.273%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 12:30
Pinnacle🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.80%EV -2.96%E -1.16%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.11%EV -4.52%E -1.69%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.09%EV -1.81%E -0.488%K -0.668%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-09 11:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -9.02%E -3.76%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.89%EV -7.37%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -2.07%E -0.560%K -0.768%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 11:45
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.81%EV -9.78%E -4.11%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.53%EV -7.37%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.66%EV -4.72%E -1.31%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 11:45
GTbets🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.10%EV -8.26%E -3.42%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.40%EV -2.03%E -0.737%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.50%EV -5.51%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-09 11:35
1xBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.21%EV -8.26%E -3.42%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.13%EV -0.959%E -0.345%K -0.539%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.65%EV -5.78%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-09 12:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.73%EV -4.47%E -1.78%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.48%EV -4.52%E -1.69%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.79%EV -6.04%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 12:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.73%EV -4.47%E -1.78%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.48%EV -4.52%E -1.69%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.79%EV -6.04%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 12:29
BetAnything🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.73%EV -4.47%E -1.78%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.48%EV -4.52%E -1.69%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.79%EV -6.04%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 12:30
Betsson🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.77%EV -5.23%E -2.09%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.63%EV -5.59%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -6.04%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 12:04
NordicBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.77%EV -5.23%E -2.09%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.63%EV -5.59%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -6.04%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 12:05
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.25%EV -7.13%E -2.91%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -5.59%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -6.04%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 12:29
BetUS🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.25%EV -7.13%E -2.91%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -5.59%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -6.04%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 12:29
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.43%EV -10.92%E -4.65%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -10.93%E -4.37%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.44%EV -6.04%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-09 12:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -9.78%E -4.11%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.00%EV -2.03%E -0.737%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.37%E -2.10%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 15:14
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -9.78%E -4.11%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.00%EV -2.03%E -0.737%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.37%E -2.10%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 15:14
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -9.78%E -4.11%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.00%EV -2.03%E -0.737%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.37%E -2.10%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 15:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -9.78%E -4.11%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.00%EV -2.03%E -0.737%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.37%E -2.10%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 15:14
BetRivers🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -9.78%E -4.11%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.00%EV -2.03%E -0.737%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.37%E -2.10%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 15:14
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -9.78%E -4.11%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.00%EV -2.03%E -0.737%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.37%E -2.10%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 15:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -9.78%E -4.11%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.00%EV -2.03%E -0.737%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.37%E -2.10%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 15:15
betPARX🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -9.78%E -4.11%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.00%EV -2.03%E -0.737%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.37%E -2.10%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 15:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -7.13%E -2.91%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -5.59%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.37%E -2.10%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 11:44
Marathon Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.61%EV -5.99%E -2.42%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 35.74%EV -7.02%E -2.69%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -7.37%E -2.10%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 12:25
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -7.13%E -2.91%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -7.37%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -7.37%E -2.10%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-09 11:55
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -9.02%E -3.76%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -5.59%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.37%E -2.10%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-09 09:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -9.02%E -3.76%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -7.37%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.37%E -2.10%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-09 11:49
Bet Victor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -9.02%E -3.76%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -9.15%E -3.59%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -7.37%E -2.10%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-09 11:39
betano_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -9.02%E -3.76%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -9.15%E -3.59%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -7.37%E -2.10%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-09 11:40
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.64%EV -14.71%E -6.54%K -11.77%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.53%EV -15.21%E -6.39%K -11.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.84%EV -7.37%E -2.10%K -2.95%G +0.000%15.0%2026-08-09 11:59
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.70%EV -7.13%E -2.91%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.53%EV -7.37%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -8.69%E -2.52%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 12:30
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.92%EV -9.02%E -3.76%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -9.15%E -3.59%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -8.69%E -2.52%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-09 11:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.20%EV -12.81%E -5.57%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.67%EV -7.37%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.13%EV -8.69%E -2.52%K -3.55%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-09 12:05
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.15%EV -10.92%E -4.65%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.86%EV -10.93%E -4.37%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.99%EV -8.69%E -2.52%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 11:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.10%EV -12.81%E -5.57%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.51%EV -14.50%E -6.04%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.40%EV -8.69%E -2.52%K -3.55%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-09 12:30
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -5.23%E -2.09%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -7.37%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -10.01%E -2.95%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-09 11:55
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.65%EV -7.13%E -2.91%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -6.66%E -2.54%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -10.01%E -2.95%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 12:30
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -9.02%E -3.76%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -7.37%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -10.01%E -2.95%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-09 11:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -9.78%E -4.11%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -7.37%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.01%E -2.95%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-09 11:45
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -9.02%E -3.76%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -9.15%E -3.59%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -10.01%E -2.95%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-09 12:05
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -9.02%E -3.76%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -10.93%E -4.37%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.01%E -2.95%K -4.17%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-09 11:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -9.02%E -3.76%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -10.93%E -4.37%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.01%E -2.95%K -4.17%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-09 12:15
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -12.81%E -5.57%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -5.59%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -11.34%E -3.38%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 15:14
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -12.81%E -5.57%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -5.59%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -11.34%E -3.38%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 15:14
Betclic (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 37.17%EV -8.26%E -3.42%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.98%EV -10.93%E -4.37%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.85%EV -11.34%E -3.38%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-09 12:29
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.25%EV -13.57%E -5.95%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.03%EV -6.30%E -2.40%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.72%EV -11.34%E -3.38%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-08 15:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.74%EV -12.81%E -5.57%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.27%EV -7.37%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.00%EV -12.66%E -3.84%K -5.50%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-09 09:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.74%EV -12.81%E -5.57%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.27%EV -7.37%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.00%EV -12.66%E -3.84%K -5.50%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-09 09:50
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.74%EV -12.81%E -5.57%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.27%EV -7.37%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.00%EV -12.66%E -3.84%K -5.50%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-09 09:50
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.41%EV -9.78%E -4.11%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.61%EV -10.93%E -4.37%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -12.66%E -3.84%K -5.50%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-09 11:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.26%EV -14.71%E -6.54%K -11.77%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.97%EV -7.37%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -12.66%E -3.84%K -5.50%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-08 15:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.26%EV -14.71%E -6.54%K -11.77%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.97%EV -7.37%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -12.66%E -3.84%K -5.50%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-08 15:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 39.17%EV -17.36%E -7.96%K -14.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.15%EV -10.93%E -4.37%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.68%EV -15.31%E -4.78%K -6.96%G +0.000%17.1%2026-08-08 15:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.64I 37.88%NM 37.59%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.95%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.46%0.8%2026-08-09 12:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.64I 37.88%NM 37.59%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.95%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.46%0.8%2026-08-09 12:25
Matchbook2.60I 38.46%NM 37.58%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.66%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.77%2.4%2026-08-09 12:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 37.44%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.52%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.04%2.7%2026-08-09 12:30
Smarkets2.60I 38.46%NM 37.30%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.39%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.31%3.1%2026-08-09 12:30

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