Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lillestrom v Rosenborg

2026-08-09 12:30 UTC — Eliteserien - Norway

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lillestrom (Local)

Prediction 39.99%2.50fair odd
EV -4.03%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -2.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.46%40.00%39.89%41.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.282.302.4046.51%43.86%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rosenborg (Visit)

Prediction 33.42%2.99fair odd
EV -4.09%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -2.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.46%33.43%33.53%34.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.532.762.792.8739.53%36.21%35.84%34.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.59%3.76fair odd
EV -1.60%
Edge -0.432%
Kelly -0.592%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.94%26.57%26.58%27.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.233.433.403.7030.96%29.14%29.41%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Lillestrom (Local): 39.99%; Rosenborg (Visit): 33.42%; Draw: 26.59%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.76. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.70, with an expected value of -1.60%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle2.40I 41.67%NM 39.78%EV -4.03%E -1.68%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.85%EV -5.76%E -2.04%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.37%EV -3.73%E -1.03%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-02 18:50
Betsson2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -4.03%E -1.68%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.87%EV -7.10%E -2.55%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -6.92%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-02 18:40
NordicBet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -4.03%E -1.68%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.87%EV -7.10%E -2.55%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -6.92%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-02 18:39
1xBet2.38I 42.02%NM 40.15%EV -4.83%E -2.03%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.30%EV -4.09%E -1.43%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.55%EV -4.26%E -1.18%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 18:59
Marathon Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 40.20%EV -7.23%E -3.12%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -6.43%E -2.30%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.49%EV -6.39%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)2.32I 43.10%NM 40.06%EV -7.23%E -3.12%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.61%EV -4.76%E -1.67%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -9.58%E -2.82%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 20:10
Unibet (NL)2.32I 43.10%NM 40.06%EV -7.23%E -3.12%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.61%EV -4.76%E -1.67%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -9.58%E -2.82%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 20:09
Casumo2.32I 43.10%NM 40.06%EV -7.23%E -3.12%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.61%EV -4.76%E -1.67%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -9.58%E -2.82%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 20:10
Unibet (SE)2.32I 43.10%NM 40.06%EV -7.23%E -3.12%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.61%EV -4.76%E -1.67%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -9.58%E -2.82%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 20:09
BetRivers2.32I 43.10%NM 40.06%EV -7.23%E -3.12%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.61%EV -4.76%E -1.67%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -9.58%E -2.82%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 20:10
ATG (SE)2.32I 43.10%NM 40.06%EV -7.23%E -3.12%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.61%EV -4.76%E -1.67%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -9.58%E -2.82%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 20:09
Svenska Spel2.32I 43.10%NM 40.06%EV -7.23%E -3.12%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.61%EV -4.76%E -1.67%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -9.58%E -2.82%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 20:10
betPARX2.32I 43.10%NM 40.06%EV -7.23%E -3.12%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.61%EV -4.76%E -1.67%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -9.58%E -2.82%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 20:09
FanDuel2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -8.03%E -3.49%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.03%EV -8.10%E -2.95%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -1.60%E -0.432%K -0.592%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-02 18:50
Unibet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.03%E -3.49%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -6.43%E -2.30%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.58%E -2.82%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-02 20:09
Grosvenor2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.03%E -3.49%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -6.43%E -2.30%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.58%E -2.82%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-02 20:09
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.03%E -3.49%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.77%E -3.62%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -6.92%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-02 18:44
Fanatics2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -8.03%E -3.49%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.10%E -2.95%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.58%E -2.82%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-02 19:00
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -8.03%E -3.49%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -6.43%E -2.30%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -12.24%E -3.71%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-02 18:45
TABtouch2.28I 43.86%NM 40.24%EV -8.83%E -3.87%K -6.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -6.43%E -2.30%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -9.58%E -2.82%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-02 20:10
Betclic (FR)2.27I 44.05%NM 38.46%EV -9.23%E -4.06%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 34.51%EV -15.45%E -6.11%K -10.10%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.03%EV -14.10%E -4.36%K -6.32%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-02 18:48
Unibet (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.11%EV -10.03%E -4.46%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -4.76%E -1.67%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -6.92%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-02 18:49
betfred_uk2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -10.03%E -4.46%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -8.10%E -2.95%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -4.26%E -1.18%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-02 18:50
SportsBet2.25I 44.44%NM 40.68%EV -10.03%E -4.46%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90%EV -9.77%E -3.62%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -4.26%E -1.18%K -1.64%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-02 18:49
LeoVegas2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -10.03%E -4.46%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.12%EV -8.10%E -2.95%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -8.25%E -2.39%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-02 18:50
LiveScore Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 40.16%EV -10.03%E -4.46%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -8.10%E -2.95%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -10.91%E -3.26%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-02 20:10
Virgin Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 40.16%EV -10.03%E -4.46%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -8.10%E -2.95%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -10.91%E -3.26%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-02 20:10
Codere (IT)2.23I 44.84%NM 40.78%EV -10.83%E -4.86%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -6.43%E -2.30%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -9.58%E -2.82%K -3.99%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-02 18:50
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 40.80%EV -12.03%E -5.47%K -10.02%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.26%EV -12.45%E -4.75%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV -4.26%E -1.18%K -1.64%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-02 18:50
PMU (FR)2.18I 45.87%NM 40.35%EV -12.83%E -5.88%K -10.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.58%EV -9.77%E -3.62%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.07%EV -13.57%E -4.17%K -6.03%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-02 20:10
Unibet (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 40.85%EV -14.03%E -6.52%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.53%EV -9.77%E -3.62%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -12.24%E -3.71%K -5.32%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-02 18:49
Winamax (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 40.66%EV -14.03%E -6.52%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.62%EV -13.12%E -5.04%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.71%EV -9.58%E -2.82%K -3.99%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-02 18:35
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 40.35%EV -14.03%E -6.52%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.36%EV -13.12%E -5.04%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.29%EV -12.24%E -3.71%K -5.32%G +0.000%15.3%2026-08-02 18:49
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 40.09%EV -14.03%E -6.52%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.80%EV -14.79%E -5.80%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.12%EV -12.24%E -3.71%K -5.32%G +0.000%16.0%2026-08-02 18:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.18I 45.87%NM 40.45%2.72I 36.76%NM 32.42%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%13.4%2026-08-02 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.50I 66.67%NM 28.99%1.04I 96.15%NM 41.82%1.49I 67.11%NM 29.19%129.9%2026-08-02 19:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 28.99%1.04I 96.15%NM 41.82%1.49I 67.11%NM 29.19%129.9%2026-08-02 19:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 28.99%1.04I 96.15%NM 41.82%1.49I 67.11%NM 29.19%129.9%2026-08-02 19:50