L’École des cotes

Lillestrom v IK Start

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-11 12:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

50 opérateurs (17 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Lillestrom (Local)

Prévision 65.93%1.52cote équitable
EV +2.19%
Avantage +1.41%
Kelly +3.98%
Croissance +0.087%

avec la cote maximale 1.55

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
61.36%65.76%65.86%67.35%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.331.421.401.5575.19%70.22%71.43%64.52%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

IK Start (Visiteur)

Prévision 15.14%6.61cote équitable
EV +10.49%
Avantage +1.44%
Kelly +1.67%
Croissance +0.175%

avec la cote maximale 7.30

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
12.96%15.05%15.27%16.73%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
5.405.955.787.3018.52%16.81%17.32%13.70%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 18.93%5.28cote équitable
EV -0.596%
Avantage -0.114%
Kelly -0.140%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 5.25

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
18.27%19.19%18.88%22.38%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.004.644.635.2525.00%21.57%21.62%19.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (50 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Betsson1.46I 68.49%NM 64.79%EV -3.74%E -2.56%K -8.14%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.96%EV +10.49%E +1.44%K +1.67%G +0.175%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.26%EV -19.53%E -4.60%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-11 11:55
PointsBet (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.24%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV +5.95%E +0.850%K +0.992%G +0.059%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -10.06%E -2.12%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 11:55
Pinnacle1.44I 69.44%NM 67.15%EV -5.06%E -3.51%K -11.50%G +0.000%6.72I 14.88%NM 14.39%EV +1.71%E +0.255%K +0.300%G +0.005%5.24I 19.08%NM 18.45%EV -0.785%E -0.150%K -0.185%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-11 11:55
Coolbet1.45I 68.97%NM 66.92%EV -4.40%E -3.04%K -9.78%G +0.000%6.65I 15.04%NM 14.59%EV +0.654%E +0.098%K +0.116%G +0.001%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.48%EV -0.596%E -0.114%K -0.140%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-11 11:04
DraftKings1.43I 69.93%NM 66.40%EV -5.72%E -4.00%K -13.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.61%EV -1.62%E -0.249%K -0.294%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.99%EV -5.33%E -1.07%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 11:14
FanDuel1.37I 72.99%NM 67.35%EV -9.68%E -7.06%K -26.15%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.20%EV -1.62%E -0.249%K -0.294%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -5.33%E -1.07%K -1.33%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-11 11:48
Bet Right1.37I 72.99%NM 66.70%EV -9.68%E -7.06%K -26.15%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.06%EV -1.62%E -0.249%K -0.294%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -10.06%E -2.12%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-11 11:55
PlayUp1.42I 70.42%NM 63.91%EV -6.38%E -4.49%K -15.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.96%EV -1.62%E -0.249%K -0.294%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -22.37%E -5.46%K -7.22%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-11 11:54
1xBet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.52%EV -4.40%E -3.04%K -9.78%G +0.000%6.38I 15.67%NM 14.89%EV -3.43%E -0.538%K -0.638%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.59%EV -8.17%E -1.68%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 11:55
Marathon Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.65%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.24%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 14.69%EV -3.89%E -0.612%K -0.727%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.66%EV -5.33%E -1.07%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 11:28
GTbets1.42I 70.42%NM 65.42%EV -6.38%E -4.49%K -15.19%G +0.000%6.27I 15.95%NM 14.82%EV -5.10%E -0.813%K -0.967%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.76%EV -11.01%E -2.34%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 11:50
BetMGM1.43I 69.93%NM 65.50%EV -5.72%E -4.00%K -13.30%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.99%EV -5.40%E -0.864%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.51%EV -9.12%E -1.90%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 11:50
Unibet (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.76%EV -6.38%E -4.49%K -15.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -9.18%E -1.53%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -5.33%E -1.07%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 11:13
Betway1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -9.18%E -1.53%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -5.33%E -1.07%K -1.33%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 11:00
BetUS1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -9.18%E -1.53%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -9.12%E -1.90%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 11:50
BetAnything1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -9.18%E -1.53%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -9.12%E -1.90%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 11:55
Fanatics1.40I 71.43%NM 65.44%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -9.18%E -1.53%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -10.06%E -2.12%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-11 11:14
Everygame1.40I 71.43%NM 65.44%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -9.18%E -1.53%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -10.06%E -2.12%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-11 11:14
William Hill1.40I 71.43%NM 65.03%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -9.18%E -1.53%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -12.90%E -2.81%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-11 11:04
SportsBet1.36I 73.53%NM 66.09%EV -10.34%E -7.60%K -28.71%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -9.18%E -1.53%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.92%EV -10.06%E -2.12%K -2.68%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-11 11:50
Paddy Power1.36I 73.53%NM 66.09%EV -10.34%E -7.60%K -28.71%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -9.18%E -1.53%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.92%EV -10.06%E -2.12%K -2.68%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-11 11:49
NordicBet1.55I 64.52%NM 61.36%EV +2.19%E +1.41%K +3.98%G +0.087%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.26%EV -11.45%E -1.96%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38%EV -19.53%E -4.60%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 11:50
LowVig.ag1.39I 71.94%NM 65.39%EV -8.36%E -6.01%K -21.43%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.67%EV -12.21%E -2.11%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -9.12%E -1.90%K -2.40%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 11:00
BetOnline.ag1.39I 71.94%NM 65.39%EV -8.36%E -6.01%K -21.43%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.67%EV -12.21%E -2.11%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -9.12%E -1.90%K -2.40%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 11:00
Codere (IT)1.39I 71.94%NM 65.13%EV -8.36%E -6.01%K -21.43%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.61%EV -12.21%E -2.11%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.26%EV -11.01%E -2.34%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-11 11:14
Unibet (NL)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.73%EV -1.10%E -0.737%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -12.97%E -2.26%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -14.80%E -3.29%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 11:30
Unibet (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.73%EV -1.10%E -0.737%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -12.97%E -2.26%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -14.80%E -3.29%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 11:30
Casumo1.50I 66.67%NM 62.73%EV -1.10%E -0.737%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -12.97%E -2.26%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -14.80%E -3.29%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 11:30
betPARX1.50I 66.67%NM 62.73%EV -1.10%E -0.737%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -12.97%E -2.26%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -14.80%E -3.29%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 11:30
Svenska Spel1.50I 66.67%NM 62.73%EV -1.10%E -0.737%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -12.97%E -2.26%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -14.80%E -3.29%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 11:30
ATG (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.73%EV -1.10%E -0.737%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -12.97%E -2.26%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -14.80%E -3.29%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 11:30
Ladbrokes (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 64.33%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.66%EV -12.97%E -2.26%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.01%EV -14.80%E -3.29%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-11 11:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 64.33%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.66%EV -12.97%E -2.26%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.01%EV -14.80%E -3.29%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-11 11:50
Coral1.40I 71.43%NM 64.33%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.66%EV -12.97%E -2.26%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.01%EV -14.80%E -3.29%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-11 11:50
Neds1.40I 71.43%NM 64.33%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.66%EV -12.97%E -2.26%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.01%EV -14.80%E -3.29%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-11 11:50
Sky Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 64.99%EV -10.34%E -7.60%K -28.71%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.37%EV -12.97%E -2.26%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.64%EV -14.80%E -3.29%K -4.23%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-11 11:50
Betclic (FR)1.33I 75.19%NM 65.91%EV -12.31%E -9.26%K -37.31%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.24%EV -12.97%E -2.26%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 18.85%EV -11.96%E -2.57%K -3.28%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-11 11:40
Winamax (DE)1.39I 71.94%NM 65.71%EV -8.36%E -6.01%K -21.43%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.02%EV -13.73%E -2.41%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -5.33%E -1.07%K -1.33%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-11 11:15
Unibet (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 65.38%EV -11.65%E -8.70%K -34.28%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.37%EV -13.73%E -2.41%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.25%EV -13.85%E -3.04%K -3.90%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-11 11:35
BetRivers1.50I 66.67%NM 62.45%EV -1.10%E -0.737%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV -15.24%E -2.72%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -14.80%E -3.29%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 09:04
LeoVegas (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.45%EV -1.10%E -0.737%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV -15.24%E -2.72%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -14.80%E -3.29%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 09:05
Grosvenor1.49I 67.11%NM 62.32%EV -1.76%E -1.18%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.58%EV -15.24%E -2.72%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -16.69%E -3.79%K -4.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 11:30
Unibet1.49I 67.11%NM 62.32%EV -1.76%E -1.18%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.58%EV -15.24%E -2.72%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -16.69%E -3.79%K -4.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 11:30
TABtouch1.47I 68.03%NM 62.63%EV -3.08%E -2.10%K -6.56%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.44%EV -15.24%E -2.72%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -16.69%E -3.79%K -4.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 11:30
LiveScore Bet1.46I 68.49%NM 62.46%EV -3.74%E -2.56%K -8.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -16.75%E -3.05%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.96%EV -17.64%E -4.05%K -5.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-11 11:30
Virgin Bet1.46I 68.49%NM 62.46%EV -3.74%E -2.56%K -8.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -16.75%E -3.05%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.96%EV -17.64%E -4.05%K -5.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-11 11:30
BoyleSports1.36I 73.53%NM 65.21%EV -10.34%E -7.60%K -28.71%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.12%EV -16.75%E -3.05%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.67%EV -10.06%E -2.12%K -2.68%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-11 11:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 63.00%EV -10.34%E -7.60%K -28.71%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.58%EV -16.75%E -3.05%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.42%EV -24.26%E -6.07%K -8.09%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-11 11:50
LeoVegas1.43I 69.93%NM 62.60%EV -5.72%E -4.00%K -13.30%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -18.27%E -3.38%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.82%EV -18.58%E -4.32%K -5.63%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-11 11:30
Winamax (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 64.88%EV -10.34%E -7.60%K -28.71%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.34%EV -18.27%E -3.38%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.77%EV -11.01%E -2.34%K -2.98%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-11 11:15
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.47I 68.03%NM 67.23%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.12%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.65%1.2%2026-04-11 11:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.47I 68.03%NM 67.23%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.12%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.65%1.2%2026-04-11 11:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.47I 68.03%NM 67.23%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.12%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.65%1.2%2026-04-11 11:15
Matchbook1.47I 68.03%NM 67.23%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.12%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.65%1.2%2026-04-11 11:15
Smarkets1.46I 68.49%NM 67.41%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.93%1.6%2026-04-11 11:50