Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lillestrom v Fredrikstad FK

Kickoff: 2026-08-30 17:15 UTC

Final: Lillestrom 1–4 Fredrikstad FK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lillestrom (Local)

Prediction 54.48%1.84fair odd
EV +0.784%
Edge +0.424%
Kelly +0.923%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.34%54.41%54.59%55.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.701.701.8561.73%58.87%58.82%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fredrikstad FK (Visit)

Prediction 20.96%4.77fair odd
EV +1.43%
Edge +0.295%
Kelly +0.372%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 4.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.96%20.99%20.83%22.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.374.404.8425.32%22.86%22.73%20.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.57%4.07fair odd
EV -1.00%
Edge -0.248%
Kelly -0.330%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.31%24.59%24.58%26.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.743.804.0328.57%26.73%26.32%24.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lillestrom (Local): 54.48%; Fredrikstad FK (Visit): 20.96%; Draw: 24.57%. For Fredrikstad FK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.77. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.84, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.43%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.45%EV +0.784%E +0.424%K +0.923%G +0.007%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.96%EV -2.97%E -0.642%K -0.819%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.59%EV -10.34%E -2.83%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-30 11:20
GTbets🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.65%EV -4.12%E -2.34%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.38I 22.83%NM 21.56%EV -8.21%E -1.87%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.79%EV -6.41%E -1.68%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-30 07:50
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.20%EV -4.66%E -2.66%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.84I 20.66%NM 19.96%EV +1.43%E +0.295%K +0.372%G +0.005%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.83%EV -4.44%E -1.14%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-30 17:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.68%EV -4.66%E -2.66%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.60%EV -8.84%E -2.03%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 16:30
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.60%EV -5.21%E -2.99%K -7.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -7.79%E -1.77%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -9.11%E -2.46%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 16:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.84%EV -5.75%E -3.33%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.19%EV -1.50%E -0.320%K -0.407%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 17:08
LowVig.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.84%EV -5.75%E -3.33%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.19%EV -1.50%E -0.320%K -0.407%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 17:10
BetAnything🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.84%EV -5.75%E -3.33%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.19%EV -1.50%E -0.320%K -0.407%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 17:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.18%EV -5.75%E -3.33%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -5.70%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -7.88%E -2.10%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 16:25
LeoVegas🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.10%EV -5.75%E -3.33%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -14.08%E -3.43%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -7.88%E -2.10%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-30 17:10
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.75%EV -6.30%E -3.66%K -8.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -3.60%E -0.783%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 17:10
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.75%EV -6.30%E -3.66%K -8.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -3.60%E -0.783%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 17:05
Bovada🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.75%EV -6.30%E -3.66%K -8.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -3.60%E -0.783%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 17:04
BetUS🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.50%EV -6.30%E -3.66%K -8.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -5.70%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 17:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.18%EV -6.30%E -3.66%K -8.75%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -10.94%E -2.57%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -4.19%E -1.08%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 17:05
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.50%EV -6.84%E -4.00%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.53I 22.08%NM 20.95%EV -5.07%E -1.12%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.55%EV -1.00%E -0.248%K -0.330%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 17:05
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.48%EV -6.84%E -4.00%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.19%EV -1.50%E -0.320%K -0.407%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.33%EV -4.19%E -1.08%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 16:45
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -6.84%E -4.00%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -5.70%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -11.56%E -3.21%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-30 16:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.32%EV -6.84%E -4.00%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -11.98%E -2.85%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -10.34%E -2.83%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-30 16:30
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -5.70%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-27 19:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -5.70%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-27 19:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -5.70%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-27 19:10
Casumo🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -5.70%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-27 19:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -5.70%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-27 19:10
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -5.70%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-27 19:10
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -5.70%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-27 19:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -5.70%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-27 19:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -5.70%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-27 19:10
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -5.70%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-27 19:10
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -5.70%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-30 16:40
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -11.98%E -2.85%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -7.88%E -2.10%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 17:05
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -7.79%E -1.77%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -11.56%E -3.21%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 17:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.71%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.27%EV -14.08%E -3.43%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -16.17%E -4.04%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -14.02%E -4.01%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-30 16:30
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -16.17%E -4.04%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -14.02%E -4.01%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-30 16:30
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -16.17%E -4.04%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -14.02%E -4.01%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-30 16:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -16.17%E -4.04%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -14.02%E -4.01%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-30 16:30
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.53%EV -7.93%E -4.69%K -11.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -3.60%E -0.783%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -4.19%E -1.08%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 16:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.16%EV -7.93%E -4.69%K -11.50%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.53%EV -9.26%E -2.14%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -1.74%E -0.435%K -0.579%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 17:10
SportsBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -8.48%E -5.05%K -12.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -5.70%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -7.88%E -2.10%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-30 17:00
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.84%EV -8.48%E -5.05%K -12.47%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.04%EV -9.89%E -2.30%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.13%EV -11.56%E -3.21%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-30 17:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.36%EV -8.48%E -5.05%K -12.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -16.17%E -4.04%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -9.11%E -2.46%K -3.37%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-30 16:30
Bet Right🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.21%EV -8.48%E -5.05%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.63%EV -17.22%E -4.36%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -9.11%E -2.46%K -3.37%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 17:05
betano_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -9.02%E -5.40%K -13.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -11.98%E -2.85%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 17:10
Bet Victor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -9.02%E -5.40%K -13.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -11.98%E -2.85%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 17:09
Betclic (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.12%EV -9.02%E -5.40%K -13.47%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.78%EV -8.84%E -2.03%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -11.56%E -3.21%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-30 16:49
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.07%EV -9.02%E -5.40%K -13.47%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.85%EV -9.26%E -2.14%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.08%EV -11.56%E -3.21%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-30 17:10
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -9.02%E -5.40%K -13.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -11.98%E -2.85%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -11.56%E -3.21%K -4.45%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-30 16:57
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -10.11%E -6.13%K -15.56%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -3.60%E -0.783%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-30 16:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.53%EV -10.66%E -6.50%K -16.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -11.98%E -2.85%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.17%EV -9.11%E -2.46%K -3.37%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-30 16:50
TABtouch🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.49%EV -10.66%E -6.50%K -16.65%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.03%EV -10.94%E -2.57%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.48%EV -10.34%E -2.83%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-27 19:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.32%EV -11.20%E -6.87%K -17.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.08%EV -11.98%E -2.85%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.60%EV -11.56%E -3.21%K -4.45%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-27 19:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.32%EV -11.20%E -6.87%K -17.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.08%EV -11.98%E -2.85%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.60%EV -11.56%E -3.21%K -4.45%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-27 19:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.32%EV -11.20%E -6.87%K -17.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.08%EV -11.98%E -2.85%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.60%EV -11.56%E -3.21%K -4.45%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-27 19:10
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.44%EV -11.75%E -7.25%K -18.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.05%EV -16.17%E -4.04%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.52%EV -7.88%E -2.10%K -2.87%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-30 17:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 55.13%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.67%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.20%0.8%2026-08-30 17:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 55.13%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.67%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.20%0.8%2026-08-30 17:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.80I 55.56%NM 55.03%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.76%1.0%2026-08-30 17:10
Matchbook1.79I 55.87%NM 54.93%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.58%1.7%2026-08-30 17:10
Smarkets1.77I 56.50%NM 54.80%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.64%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.56%3.1%2026-08-30 17:10