Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fredrikstad FK v Lillestrom

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 12:00 UTC

Final: Fredrikstad FK 0–2 Lillestrom

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fredrikstad FK (Local)

Prediction 30.35%3.29fair odd
EV +1.08%
Edge +0.323%
Kelly +0.462%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 3.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.14%30.42%30.32%31.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.043.053.3335.71%32.88%32.79%30.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lillestrom (Visit)

Prediction 42.85%2.33fair odd
EV -1.02%
Edge -0.442%
Kelly -0.780%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.83%42.81%42.83%44.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.152.162.3150.00%46.47%46.30%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.80%3.73fair odd
EV -0.843%
Edge -0.228%
Kelly -0.312%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.51%26.77%26.85%27.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.413.403.7031.25%29.36%29.41%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fredrikstad FK (Local): 30.35%; Lillestrom (Visit): 42.85%; Draw: 26.80%. For Fredrikstad FK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.29. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.33, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯3.33I 30.03%NM 29.14%EV +1.08%E +0.323%K +0.462%G +0.005%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.52%EV -4.45%E -2.00%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.34%EV -4.86%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-11 11:00
Pinnacle🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.22%EV -2.87%E -0.897%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.36%EV -4.45%E -2.00%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.42%EV -1.91%E -0.523%K -0.720%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-11 11:55
1xBet🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 30.09%EV -3.78%E -1.19%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.97%EV -4.88%E -2.20%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.94%EV -5.13%E -1.45%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-11 11:54
BetAnything🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -4.39%E -1.39%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.97%EV -5.73%E -2.61%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.01%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-11 11:54
Betsson🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -4.39%E -1.39%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.52%EV -9.16%E -4.32%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -0.843%E -0.228%K -0.312%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-11 11:55
NordicBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -4.39%E -1.39%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.52%EV -9.16%E -4.32%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -0.843%E -0.228%K -0.312%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-11 11:54
BetRivers🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -4.39%E -1.39%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.91%EV -7.45%E -3.45%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.67%EV -10.22%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-11 11:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -4.39%E -1.39%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.91%EV -7.45%E -3.45%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.67%EV -10.22%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-11 11:09
Unibet (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -4.39%E -1.39%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.91%EV -7.45%E -3.45%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.67%EV -10.22%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-11 11:09
Grosvenor🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -4.39%E -1.39%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.91%EV -7.45%E -3.45%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.67%EV -10.22%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-11 11:09
Casumo🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -4.39%E -1.39%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.91%EV -7.45%E -3.45%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.67%EV -10.22%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-11 11:09
Unibet (NL)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -4.39%E -1.39%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.91%EV -7.45%E -3.45%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.67%EV -10.22%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-11 11:09
betPARX🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -4.39%E -1.39%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.91%EV -7.45%E -3.45%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.67%EV -10.22%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-11 11:09
Svenska Spel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -4.39%E -1.39%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.91%EV -7.45%E -3.45%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.67%EV -10.22%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-11 11:09
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -4.39%E -1.39%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.91%EV -7.45%E -3.45%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.67%EV -10.22%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-11 11:09
Unibet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -4.39%E -1.39%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.91%EV -7.45%E -3.45%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.67%EV -10.22%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-11 11:09
Marathon Bet🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 29.86%EV -5.30%E -1.70%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.13%EV -7.45%E -3.45%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -7.54%E -2.19%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-11 11:54
LowVig.ag🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -5.91%E -1.91%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.71%EV -4.88%E -2.20%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -4.86%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-11 11:40
BetOnline.ag🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -5.91%E -1.91%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.71%EV -4.88%E -2.20%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -4.86%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-11 11:39
BetUS🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -5.91%E -1.91%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.93%EV -5.73%E -2.61%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -4.86%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-11 11:39
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -5.91%E -1.91%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -3.59%E -1.60%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-11 11:04
FanDuel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -5.91%E -1.91%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -5.73%E -2.61%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-11 11:48
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -5.91%E -1.91%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -7.88%E -3.66%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-11 11:19
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -5.91%E -1.91%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.88%E -3.66%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-11 11:19
TABtouch🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -5.91%E -1.91%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.93%EV -8.31%E -3.88%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.43%EV -10.22%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-11 11:09
DraftKings🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -7.42%E -2.43%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -5.73%E -2.61%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -3.52%E -0.978%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-11 11:44
Bovada🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -7.42%E -2.43%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.95%EV -7.88%E -3.66%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -7.54%E -2.19%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-11 11:49
SportsBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -7.42%E -2.43%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.30%EV -9.16%E -4.32%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -7.54%E -2.19%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-11 11:55
Virgin Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.62%EV -7.42%E -2.43%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.01%EV -10.02%E -4.77%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -11.56%E -3.50%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-11 11:09
LiveScore Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.62%EV -7.42%E -2.43%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.01%EV -10.02%E -4.77%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -11.56%E -3.50%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-11 11:09
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -8.94%E -2.98%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -10.02%E -4.77%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-11 11:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -8.94%E -2.98%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -10.02%E -4.77%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-11 11:45
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -8.94%E -2.98%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -10.02%E -4.77%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-11 11:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -8.94%E -2.98%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -10.02%E -4.77%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -12.90%E -3.97%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-11 11:24
Neds🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -8.94%E -2.98%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -10.02%E -4.77%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -12.90%E -3.97%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-11 11:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -8.94%E -2.98%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -10.02%E -4.77%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -12.90%E -3.97%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-11 11:24
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -8.94%E -2.98%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -10.02%E -4.77%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -12.90%E -3.97%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-11 11:19
Betclic (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -8.94%E -2.98%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.93%EV -13.45%E -6.66%K -13.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.49%EV -10.22%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-11 11:34
GTbets🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 31.76%EV -9.85%E -3.32%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.83%EV -1.02%E -0.442%K -0.780%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.42%EV -7.81%E -2.27%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-11 11:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -10.46%E -3.55%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.73%E -2.61%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.52%E -0.978%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-11 11:25
LeoVegas🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.05%EV -10.46%E -3.55%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.01%EV -6.59%E -3.02%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-11 11:39
Everygame🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -10.46%E -3.55%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.35%EV -7.88%E -3.66%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-11 11:44
Codere (IT)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.80%EV -10.46%E -3.55%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.67%EV -6.59%E -3.02%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -11.56%E -3.50%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-11 11:04
PMU (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.69%EV -10.46%E -3.55%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 42.94%EV -12.59%E -6.17%K -12.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.37%EV -14.24%E -4.45%K -6.47%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-11 11:09
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -11.98%E -4.13%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -5.73%E -2.61%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-11 11:44
Bet Victor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -11.98%E -4.13%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.88%E -3.66%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-11 11:53
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -11.98%E -4.13%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -5.73%E -2.61%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -11.56%E -3.50%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-11 11:44
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -11.98%E -4.13%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -7.88%E -3.66%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-11 11:04
Sky Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -11.98%E -4.13%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -10.02%E -4.77%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -11.56%E -3.50%K -5.03%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-11 11:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.42%EV -11.98%E -4.13%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.01%EV -10.02%E -4.77%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.57%EV -14.24%E -4.45%K -6.47%G +0.000%13.4%2026-07-11 11:34
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -12.58%E -4.37%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -5.73%E -2.61%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-11 11:20
Bet Right🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -15.01%E -5.36%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -7.88%E -3.66%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-11 11:24
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.30%EV -15.01%E -5.36%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.73%EV -10.02%E -4.77%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -12.90%E -3.97%K -5.73%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-11 11:04
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.78%EV -15.01%E -5.36%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.10%EV -14.30%E -7.15%K -14.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.12%EV -11.56%E -3.50%K -5.03%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-11 11:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook3.30I 30.30%NM 30.05%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.50%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.45%0.8%2026-07-11 11:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.72%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.35%1.2%2026-07-11 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.72%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.35%1.2%2026-07-11 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.72%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.35%1.2%2026-07-11 11:54
Smarkets3.25I 30.77%NM 30.15%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.36%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%2.0%2026-07-11 11:55

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