Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aalesund v Tromso

Kickoff: 2026-08-02 15:00 UTC

Final: Aalesund 2–6 Tromso

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aalesund (Local)

Prediction 26.02%3.84fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.366%
Kelly -0.498%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.35%26.04%26.02%27.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.553.583.7930.30%28.20%27.97%26.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tromso (Visit)

Prediction 49.14%2.03fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -3.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.45%49.05%49.20%50.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.871.851.9756.82%53.37%54.05%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.84%4.03fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -0.477%
Kelly -0.638%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.44%24.92%24.78%25.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.703.703.9528.57%27.05%27.03%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aalesund (Local): 26.02%; Tromso (Visit): 49.14%; Draw: 24.84%. For Aalesund (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.84. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.79, with an expected value of -1.39%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯3.79I 26.39%NM 25.46%EV -1.39%E -0.366%K -0.498%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.99%EV -5.16%E -2.67%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.55%EV -2.38%E -0.606%K -0.812%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-02 14:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.79I 26.39%NM 25.46%EV -1.39%E -0.366%K -0.498%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.99%EV -5.16%E -2.67%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.55%EV -2.38%E -0.606%K -0.812%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-02 14:49
BetAnything🎯3.79I 26.39%NM 25.46%EV -1.39%E -0.366%K -0.498%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.99%EV -5.16%E -2.67%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.55%EV -2.38%E -0.606%K -0.812%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-02 14:49
Pinnacle🎯3.76I 26.60%NM 25.71%EV -2.17%E -0.577%K -0.786%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.57%EV -4.17%E -2.14%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.72%EV -2.88%E -0.736%K -0.989%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-02 14:45
Coolbet🎯3.71I 26.95%NM 26.16%EV -3.47%E -0.935%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.27%EV -3.19%E -1.62%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.57%EV -1.88%E -0.477%K -0.638%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-02 14:30
BetUS🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.65%EV -3.73%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.69%EV -6.14%E -3.21%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.65%EV -4.37%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 14:49
FanDuel🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -3.73%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.53%EV -6.14%E -3.21%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.61%E -1.48%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-02 14:19
GTbets🎯3.68I 27.17%NM 25.35%EV -4.25%E -1.15%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.36%EV -7.12%E -3.77%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.28%EV -8.34%E -2.26%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-27 21:35
NordicBet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -5.03%E -1.38%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -4.17%E -2.14%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -9.34%E -2.56%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-02 14:05
Betsson🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -5.03%E -1.38%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -4.17%E -2.14%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -9.34%E -2.56%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-02 14:05
1xBet🎯3.64I 27.47%NM 26.08%EV -5.29%E -1.45%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.19%EV -5.16%E -2.67%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.72%EV -4.62%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 14:50
Marathon Bet🎯3.62I 27.62%NM 25.75%EV -5.81%E -1.61%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.59%EV -7.61%E -4.05%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.66%EV -6.11%E -1.62%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 14:50
DraftKings🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.67%EV -4.17%E -2.14%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -5.61%E -1.48%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 14:00
Bovada🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.14%E -3.21%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -5.61%E -1.48%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-02 14:50
Unibet (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.60%EV -5.16%E -2.67%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -8.09%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-02 14:19
BetMGM🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.55%EV -8.11%E -4.33%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-02 14:48
Unibet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.67%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.69%EV -8.60%E -4.62%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-02 14:50
Grosvenor🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:50
BetRivers🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:50
Unibet (NL)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:49
Unibet (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:49
Casumo🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:50
betPARX🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:49
ATG (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:49
Svenska Spel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:49
Tipico (DE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -8.09%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-02 14:30
TABtouch🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -10.07%E -5.50%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-02 14:49
LiveScore Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.58%EV -7.63%E -2.15%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.89%EV -10.56%E -5.80%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.54%EV -8.09%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-02 14:50
Virgin Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.58%EV -7.63%E -2.15%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.89%EV -10.56%E -5.80%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.54%EV -8.09%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-02 14:50
Betclic (FR)🎯3.53I 28.33%NM 25.56%EV -8.15%E -2.31%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.58%EV -10.56%E -5.80%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 24.86%EV -9.83%E -2.71%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-02 14:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -8.93%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.66%EV -6.14%E -3.21%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 14:05
Fanatics🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.93%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -6.14%E -3.21%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.58%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-02 14:05
LeoVegas🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -8.93%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.89%EV -7.61%E -4.05%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -8.09%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-02 14:55
SportsBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.93%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.03%EV -8.11%E -4.33%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -8.09%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-02 14:50
betano_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -8.93%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.30%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -8.09%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-02 14:44
Bet Victor🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -8.93%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.30%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -8.09%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-02 14:45
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -8.93%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -10.58%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-02 14:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -8.93%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -10.58%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-02 14:45
Unibet (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -8.93%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -10.07%E -5.50%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -10.58%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-02 14:35
Codere (IT)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.27%EV -10.23%E -2.97%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.20%EV -7.61%E -4.05%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.53%EV -11.82%E -3.33%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-02 14:25
Everygame🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.16%EV -10.23%E -2.97%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.78%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.07%EV -10.58%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-02 14:04
PMU (FR)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.43%EV -10.23%E -2.97%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 49.85%EV -13.51%E -7.68%K -17.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.72%EV -11.82%E -3.33%K -4.64%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-02 14:50
Betway🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -11.54%E -3.39%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.28%EV -6.14%E -3.21%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 14:00
betfred_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -11.54%E -3.39%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -6.63%E -3.49%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-02 14:09
Winamax (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -11.54%E -3.39%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.52%EV -7.61%E -4.05%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -8.09%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-02 14:20
William Hill🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -11.54%E -3.39%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -6.14%E -3.21%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -13.06%E -3.73%K -5.22%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-02 14:00
PlayUp🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -11.54%E -3.39%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.19%EV -7.61%E -4.05%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -10.58%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-02 14:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.54%E -3.39%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -13.06%E -3.73%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-02 14:00
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.54%E -3.39%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -13.06%E -3.73%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-02 14:04
Neds🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.54%E -3.39%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -13.06%E -3.73%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-02 14:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.54%E -3.39%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -13.06%E -3.73%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-02 14:04
Sky Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.11%EV -11.54%E -3.39%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.52%EV -10.07%E -5.50%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -13.06%E -3.73%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-02 14:19
Winamax (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -12.84%E -3.83%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 48.54%EV -9.58%E -5.21%K -11.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.81%EV -10.58%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-02 14:19
Bet Right🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -12.84%E -3.83%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.23%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.13%EV -11.82%E -3.33%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-02 14:04
BoyleSports🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.48%EV -14.14%E -4.28%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.55%EV -11.55%E -6.41%K -14.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.97%EV -13.06%E -3.73%K -5.22%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-02 14:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.90I 25.64%NM 25.35%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.93%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72%1.1%2026-08-02 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.90I 25.64%NM 25.35%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.93%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72%1.1%2026-08-02 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.90I 25.64%NM 25.35%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.93%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72%1.1%2026-08-02 14:55
Smarkets3.90I 25.64%NM 25.29%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.06%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.65%1.4%2026-08-02 14:55
Matchbook3.90I 25.64%NM 25.29%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.06%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.65%1.4%2026-08-02 14:55

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