Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Aalesund v Tromso

Inicio: 2026-08-02 15:00 UTC

Final: Aalesund 2–6 Tromso

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Aalesund (Local)

Predicción 26.02%3.84momio equitativo
EV -1.39%
Ventaja -0.366%
Kelly -0.498%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.79

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.35%26.04%26.02%27.12%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.553.583.7930.30%28.20%27.97%26.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Tromso (Visitante)

Predicción 49.14%2.03momio equitativo
EV -3.19%
Ventaja -1.62%
Kelly -3.29%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.97

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.45%49.05%49.20%50.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.761.871.851.9756.82%53.37%54.05%50.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 24.84%4.03momio equitativo
EV -1.88%
Ventaja -0.477%
Kelly -0.638%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.44%24.92%24.78%25.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.503.703.703.9528.57%27.05%27.03%25.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Aalesund (Local): 26.02%; Tromso (Visitante): 49.14%; Empate: 24.84%. Para Aalesund (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.84. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.79, con un valor esperado de -1.39%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
LowVig.ag🎯3.79I 26.39%NM 25.46%EV -1.39%E -0.366%K -0.498%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.99%EV -5.16%E -2.67%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.55%EV -2.38%E -0.606%K -0.812%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-02 14:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.79I 26.39%NM 25.46%EV -1.39%E -0.366%K -0.498%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.99%EV -5.16%E -2.67%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.55%EV -2.38%E -0.606%K -0.812%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-02 14:49
BetAnything🎯3.79I 26.39%NM 25.46%EV -1.39%E -0.366%K -0.498%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.99%EV -5.16%E -2.67%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.55%EV -2.38%E -0.606%K -0.812%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-02 14:49
Pinnacle🎯3.76I 26.60%NM 25.71%EV -2.17%E -0.577%K -0.786%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.57%EV -4.17%E -2.14%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.72%EV -2.88%E -0.736%K -0.989%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-02 14:45
Coolbet🎯3.71I 26.95%NM 26.16%EV -3.47%E -0.935%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.27%EV -3.19%E -1.62%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.57%EV -1.88%E -0.477%K -0.638%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-02 14:30
BetUS🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.65%EV -3.73%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.69%EV -6.14%E -3.21%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.65%EV -4.37%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 14:49
FanDuel🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -3.73%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.53%EV -6.14%E -3.21%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.61%E -1.48%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-02 14:19
GTbets🎯3.68I 27.17%NM 25.35%EV -4.25%E -1.15%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.36%EV -7.12%E -3.77%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.28%EV -8.34%E -2.26%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-27 21:35
NordicBet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -5.03%E -1.38%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -4.17%E -2.14%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -9.34%E -2.56%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-02 14:05
Betsson🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -5.03%E -1.38%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -4.17%E -2.14%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -9.34%E -2.56%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-02 14:05
1xBet🎯3.64I 27.47%NM 26.08%EV -5.29%E -1.45%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.19%EV -5.16%E -2.67%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.72%EV -4.62%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 14:50
Marathon Bet🎯3.62I 27.62%NM 25.75%EV -5.81%E -1.61%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.59%EV -7.61%E -4.05%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.66%EV -6.11%E -1.62%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 14:50
DraftKings🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.67%EV -4.17%E -2.14%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -5.61%E -1.48%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 14:00
Bovada🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.14%E -3.21%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -5.61%E -1.48%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-02 14:50
Unibet (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.60%EV -5.16%E -2.67%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -8.09%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-02 14:19
BetMGM🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.55%EV -8.11%E -4.33%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-02 14:48
Unibet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.67%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.69%EV -8.60%E -4.62%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-02 14:50
Grosvenor🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:50
BetRivers🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:50
Unibet (NL)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:49
Unibet (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:49
Casumo🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:50
betPARX🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:49
ATG (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:49
Svenska Spel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:49
Tipico (DE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -8.09%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-02 14:30
TABtouch🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -10.07%E -5.50%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-02 14:49
LiveScore Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.58%EV -7.63%E -2.15%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.89%EV -10.56%E -5.80%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.54%EV -8.09%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-02 14:50
Virgin Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.58%EV -7.63%E -2.15%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.89%EV -10.56%E -5.80%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.54%EV -8.09%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-02 14:50
Betclic (FR)🎯3.53I 28.33%NM 25.56%EV -8.15%E -2.31%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.58%EV -10.56%E -5.80%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 24.86%EV -9.83%E -2.71%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-02 14:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -8.93%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.66%EV -6.14%E -3.21%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 14:05
Fanatics🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.93%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -6.14%E -3.21%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.58%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-02 14:05
LeoVegas🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -8.93%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.89%EV -7.61%E -4.05%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -8.09%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-02 14:55
SportsBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.93%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.03%EV -8.11%E -4.33%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -8.09%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-02 14:50
betano_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -8.93%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.30%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -8.09%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-02 14:44
Bet Victor🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -8.93%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.30%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -8.09%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-02 14:45
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -8.93%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -10.58%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-02 14:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -8.93%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -10.58%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-02 14:45
Unibet (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -8.93%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -10.07%E -5.50%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -10.58%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-02 14:35
Codere (IT)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.27%EV -10.23%E -2.97%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.20%EV -7.61%E -4.05%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.53%EV -11.82%E -3.33%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-02 14:25
Everygame🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.16%EV -10.23%E -2.97%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.78%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.07%EV -10.58%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-02 14:04
PMU (FR)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.43%EV -10.23%E -2.97%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 49.85%EV -13.51%E -7.68%K -17.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.72%EV -11.82%E -3.33%K -4.64%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-02 14:50
Betway🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -11.54%E -3.39%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.28%EV -6.14%E -3.21%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 14:00
betfred_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -11.54%E -3.39%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -6.63%E -3.49%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-02 14:09
Winamax (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -11.54%E -3.39%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.52%EV -7.61%E -4.05%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -8.09%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-02 14:20
William Hill🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -11.54%E -3.39%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -6.14%E -3.21%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -13.06%E -3.73%K -5.22%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-02 14:00
PlayUp🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -11.54%E -3.39%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.19%EV -7.61%E -4.05%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -10.58%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-02 14:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.54%E -3.39%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -13.06%E -3.73%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-02 14:00
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.54%E -3.39%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -13.06%E -3.73%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-02 14:04
Neds🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.54%E -3.39%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -13.06%E -3.73%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-02 14:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.54%E -3.39%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -13.06%E -3.73%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-02 14:04
Sky Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.11%EV -11.54%E -3.39%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.52%EV -10.07%E -5.50%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -13.06%E -3.73%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-02 14:19
Winamax (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -12.84%E -3.83%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 48.54%EV -9.58%E -5.21%K -11.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.81%EV -10.58%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-02 14:19
Bet Right🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -12.84%E -3.83%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.23%EV -9.09%E -4.91%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.13%EV -11.82%E -3.33%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-02 14:04
BoyleSports🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.48%EV -14.14%E -4.28%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.55%EV -11.55%E -6.41%K -14.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.97%EV -13.06%E -3.73%K -5.22%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-02 14:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.90I 25.64%NM 25.35%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.93%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72%1.1%2026-08-02 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.90I 25.64%NM 25.35%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.93%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72%1.1%2026-08-02 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.90I 25.64%NM 25.35%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.93%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72%1.1%2026-08-02 14:55
Smarkets3.90I 25.64%NM 25.29%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.06%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.65%1.4%2026-08-02 14:55
Matchbook3.90I 25.64%NM 25.29%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.06%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.65%1.4%2026-08-02 14:55