Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 5.21
assuming max odds 1.64
assuming max odds 4.79
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Willem II (Local): 19.67%; NEC Nijmegen (Visit): 59.22%; Draw: 21.11%. For Willem II (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.08. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.21, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.48%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.21I 19.19%NM 18.50%EV +2.48%E +0.477%K +0.590%G +0.015% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.00%EV -6.43%E -4.07%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.51%EV -0.804%E -0.171%K -0.217%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-15 14:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.68%EV +2.29%E +0.440%K +0.545%G +0.012% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.24%EV -2.87%E -1.75%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.08%EV -7.14%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-15 14:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.12I 19.53%NM 18.89%EV +0.714%E +0.139%K +0.173%G +0.001% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.08%EV -4.65%E -2.89%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.03%EV -2.91%E -0.634%K -0.810%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-15 14:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 5.12I 19.53%NM 18.89%EV +0.714%E +0.139%K +0.173%G +0.001% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.08%EV -4.65%E -2.89%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.03%EV -2.91%E -0.634%K -0.810%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-15 14:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 5.12I 19.53%NM 18.89%EV +0.714%E +0.139%K +0.173%G +0.001% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.08%EV -4.65%E -2.89%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.03%EV -2.91%E -0.634%K -0.810%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-15 14:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 5.12I 19.53%NM 18.89%EV +0.714%E +0.139%K +0.173%G +0.001% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.08%EV -4.65%E -2.89%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.03%EV -2.91%E -0.634%K -0.810%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-15 14:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.86%EV +0.320%E +0.063%K +0.078%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.02%EV -3.47%E -2.13%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.12%EV -8.19%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-15 14:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.86%EV +0.320%E +0.063%K +0.078%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.02%EV -3.47%E -2.13%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.12%EV -8.19%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-15 14:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10%EV -1.65%E -0.329%K -0.412%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.68%EV -5.24%E -3.28%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.22%EV -5.03%E -1.12%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 13:49 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV -1.65%E -0.329%K -0.412%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.40%EV -5.24%E -3.28%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV -7.14%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 14:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV -1.65%E -0.329%K -0.412%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.40%EV -5.24%E -3.28%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV -7.14%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 14:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.93%EV -1.65%E -0.329%K -0.412%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.80%EV -4.65%E -2.89%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.27%EV -10.30%E -2.42%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 14:24 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.34%EV -3.61%E -0.737%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.60%EV -5.83%E -3.67%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.06%EV -5.03%E -1.12%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-15 14:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.32%EV -3.61%E -0.737%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.17%EV -5.24%E -3.28%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.51%EV -7.14%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 13:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV -3.61%E -0.737%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.11%EV -4.06%E -2.50%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.68%EV -12.41%E -2.99%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-15 14:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV -3.61%E -0.737%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.11%EV -4.06%E -2.50%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.68%EV -12.41%E -2.99%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-15 14:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV -3.61%E -0.737%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.91%EV -7.02%E -4.47%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -5.03%E -1.12%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-15 14:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -3.61%E -0.737%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.57%EV -5.24%E -3.28%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -11.36%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 14:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -3.61%E -0.737%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.57%EV -5.24%E -3.28%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -11.36%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 14:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -3.61%E -0.737%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.57%EV -5.24%E -3.28%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -11.36%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 14:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.10%EV -3.61%E -0.737%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.62%EV -7.02%E -4.47%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -7.14%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-15 14:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.62%EV -5.58%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.22%EV -5.83%E -3.67%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.16%EV -6.08%E -1.37%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-15 14:23 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.45%EV -5.58%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.25%EV -8.20%E -5.29%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -2.91%E -0.634%K -0.810%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-15 14:24 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.79I 20.88%NM 20.25%EV -5.78%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.50%EV -3.47%E -2.13%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 4.79I 20.88%NM 20.25%EV +1.10%E +0.229%K +0.289%G +0.003% | 3.1% | 2026-08-15 14:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -6.56%E -1.38%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.09%EV -5.24%E -3.28%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -5.03%E -1.12%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 14:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -6.56%E -1.38%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.30%EV -4.06%E -2.50%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.81%EV -8.61%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-15 14:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.83%EV -6.56%E -1.38%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.24%EV -5.83%E -3.67%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -5.03%E -1.12%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-15 14:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -6.56%E -1.38%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.54%EV -7.02%E -4.47%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -5.03%E -1.12%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-15 14:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -6.56%E -1.38%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.54%EV -7.02%E -4.47%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -5.03%E -1.12%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-15 13:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.64%EV -6.56%E -1.38%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.67%EV -5.83%E -3.67%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -9.25%E -2.15%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-15 14:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -6.56%E -1.38%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.90%EV -5.24%E -3.28%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -13.47%E -3.28%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-15 14:24 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -6.56%E -1.38%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.98%EV -7.61%E -4.88%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%EV -10.30%E -2.42%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-15 13:49 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.05%EV -7.55%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.53%EV -4.65%E -2.89%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.42%EV -7.14%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 14:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -9.51%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.84%EV -5.24%E -3.28%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -11.36%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-15 14:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -9.51%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -7.02%E -4.47%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -11.36%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-15 13:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -9.51%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.05%EV -5.24%E -3.28%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.11%EV -16.63%E -4.21%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-15 13:34 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.78%EV -9.51%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.07%EV -8.80%E -5.71%K -16.29%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.16%EV -9.25%E -2.15%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-15 14:24 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -9.51%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.83%EV -7.61%E -4.88%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -15.58%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-15 14:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -9.51%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.83%EV -7.61%E -4.88%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -15.58%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-15 14:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.60%EV -9.51%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.93%EV -9.39%E -6.14%K -17.71%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -11.36%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-15 14:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.48%EV -9.51%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.82%EV -8.20%E -5.29%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.69%EV -16.63%E -4.21%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-15 14:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.48%EV -9.51%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.82%EV -8.20%E -5.29%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.69%EV -16.63%E -4.21%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-15 14:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.48%EV -9.51%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.82%EV -8.20%E -5.29%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.69%EV -16.63%E -4.21%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-15 14:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -11.48%E -2.55%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.05%EV -7.02%E -4.47%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -11.36%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-15 14:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -11.48%E -2.55%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.05%EV -7.02%E -4.47%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -11.36%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-15 14:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -11.48%E -2.55%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.05%EV -7.02%E -4.47%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -11.36%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-15 14:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -11.48%E -2.55%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.05%EV -9.39%E -6.14%K -17.71%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.87%EV -8.61%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-15 13:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -11.48%E -2.55%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.82%EV -9.39%E -6.14%K -17.71%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.18%EV -10.30%E -2.42%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-15 14:24 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.95%EV -11.48%E -2.55%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.68%EV -9.39%E -6.14%K -17.71%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -11.36%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-15 14:14 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -11.48%E -2.55%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 59.29%EV -10.57%E -7.00%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.82%EV -9.25%E -2.15%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-15 14:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.74%EV -11.48%E -2.55%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.06%EV -9.39%E -6.14%K -17.71%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.21%EV -15.58%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-15 14:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.76%EV -13.45%E -3.06%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.40%EV -4.06%E -2.50%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -15.58%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-15 14:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -13.45%E -3.06%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -7.61%E -4.88%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -7.14%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-15 14:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.66%EV -14.83%E -3.42%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.98%EV -7.02%E -4.47%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -15.58%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-15 14:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.66%EV -14.83%E -3.42%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.98%EV -7.02%E -4.47%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -15.58%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-15 14:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.26%EV -17.38%E -4.14%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 57.98%EV -8.80%E -5.71%K -16.29%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.76%EV -9.25%E -2.15%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-15 14:20 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.81% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.42% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.77% | 0.3% | 2026-08-15 14:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.81% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.42% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.77% | 0.3% | 2026-08-15 14:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.81% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.42% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.77% | 0.3% | 2026-08-15 14:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.10% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.20% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.69% | 0.7% | 2026-08-15 14:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.03% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.35% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.62% | 1.0% | 2026-08-15 14:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.61% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.79% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.60% | 2.0% | 2026-08-15 14:20 |