Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Willem II v NEC Nijmegen

Inicio: 2026-08-15 14:30 UTC

Final: Willem II 1–4 NEC Nijmegen

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Willem II (Local)

Predicción 19.67%5.08momio equitativo
EV +2.48%
Ventaja +0.477%
Kelly +0.590%
Crecimiento +0.015%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.21

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.50%19.64%19.69%21.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.204.754.755.2123.81%21.06%21.05%19.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

NEC Nijmegen (Visitante)

Predicción 59.22%1.69momio equitativo
EV -2.87%
Ventaja -1.75%
Kelly -4.49%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.64

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.40%59.12%59.27%61.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.511.581.591.6466.23%63.21%62.89%60.98%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 21.11%4.74momio equitativo
EV +1.10%
Ventaja +0.229%
Kelly +0.289%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.79

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.25%21.24%21.04%23.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.954.304.304.7925.32%23.26%23.26%20.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Willem II (Local): 19.67%; NEC Nijmegen (Visitante): 59.22%; Empate: 21.11%. Para Willem II (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.08. 8 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.21, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.48%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯5.21I 19.19%NM 18.50%EV +2.48%E +0.477%K +0.590%G +0.015%1.58I 63.29%NM 61.00%EV -6.43%E -4.07%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.51%EV -0.804%E -0.171%K -0.217%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-15 14:15
Unibet (NL)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.68%EV +2.29%E +0.440%K +0.545%G +0.012%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.24%EV -2.87%E -1.75%K -4.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.08%EV -7.14%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-15 14:24
BetOnline.ag🎯5.12I 19.53%NM 18.89%EV +0.714%E +0.139%K +0.173%G +0.001%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.08%EV -4.65%E -2.89%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.03%EV -2.91%E -0.634%K -0.810%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-15 14:05
LowVig.ag🎯5.12I 19.53%NM 18.89%EV +0.714%E +0.139%K +0.173%G +0.001%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.08%EV -4.65%E -2.89%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.03%EV -2.91%E -0.634%K -0.810%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-15 14:04
BetUS🎯5.12I 19.53%NM 18.89%EV +0.714%E +0.139%K +0.173%G +0.001%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.08%EV -4.65%E -2.89%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.03%EV -2.91%E -0.634%K -0.810%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-15 14:05
BetAnything🎯5.12I 19.53%NM 18.89%EV +0.714%E +0.139%K +0.173%G +0.001%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.08%EV -4.65%E -2.89%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.03%EV -2.91%E -0.634%K -0.810%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-15 14:05
Svenska Spel🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.86%EV +0.320%E +0.063%K +0.078%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.02%EV -3.47%E -2.13%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.12%EV -8.19%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-15 14:24
ATG (SE)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.86%EV +0.320%E +0.063%K +0.078%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.02%EV -3.47%E -2.13%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.12%EV -8.19%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-15 14:24
Coolbet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10%EV -1.65%E -0.329%K -0.412%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.68%EV -5.24%E -3.28%K -8.74%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.22%EV -5.03%E -1.12%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 13:49
betano_uk🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV -1.65%E -0.329%K -0.412%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.40%EV -5.24%E -3.28%K -8.74%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV -7.14%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 14:19
Bet Victor🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV -1.65%E -0.329%K -0.412%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.40%EV -5.24%E -3.28%K -8.74%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV -7.14%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 14:19
Grosvenor🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.93%EV -1.65%E -0.329%K -0.412%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.80%EV -4.65%E -2.89%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.27%EV -10.30%E -2.42%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 14:24
DraftKings🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.34%EV -3.61%E -0.737%K -0.927%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.60%EV -5.83%E -3.67%K -9.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.06%EV -5.03%E -1.12%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 14:14
Betr (AU)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.32%EV -3.61%E -0.737%K -0.927%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.17%EV -5.24%E -3.28%K -8.74%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.51%EV -7.14%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 13:49
Betsson🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV -3.61%E -0.737%K -0.927%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.11%EV -4.06%E -2.50%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.68%EV -12.41%E -2.99%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 14:15
NordicBet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV -3.61%E -0.737%K -0.927%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.11%EV -4.06%E -2.50%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.68%EV -12.41%E -2.99%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 14:14
FanDuel🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV -3.61%E -0.737%K -0.927%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.91%EV -7.02%E -4.47%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -5.03%E -1.12%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 14:15
Casumo🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -3.61%E -0.737%K -0.927%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.57%EV -5.24%E -3.28%K -8.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -11.36%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 14:25
Unibet (SE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -3.61%E -0.737%K -0.927%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.57%EV -5.24%E -3.28%K -8.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -11.36%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 14:24
betPARX🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -3.61%E -0.737%K -0.927%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.57%EV -5.24%E -3.28%K -8.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -11.36%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 14:24
SportsBet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.10%EV -3.61%E -0.737%K -0.927%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.62%EV -7.02%E -4.47%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -7.14%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 14:14
Bovada🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.62%EV -5.58%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.22%EV -5.83%E -3.67%K -9.89%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.16%EV -6.08%E -1.37%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 14:23
Tipico (DE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.45%EV -5.58%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.25%EV -8.20%E -5.29%K -14.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -2.91%E -0.634%K -0.810%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 14:24
1xBet🎯4.79I 20.88%NM 20.25%EV -5.78%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.50%EV -3.47%E -2.13%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.79I 20.88%NM 20.25%EV +1.10%E +0.229%K +0.289%G +0.003%3.1%2026-08-15 14:24
Unibet (UK)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -6.56%E -1.38%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.09%EV -5.24%E -3.28%K -8.74%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -5.03%E -1.12%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 14:19
BetMGM🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -6.56%E -1.38%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.30%EV -4.06%E -2.50%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.81%EV -8.61%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 14:19
Fanatics🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.83%EV -6.56%E -1.38%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.24%EV -5.83%E -3.67%K -9.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -5.03%E -1.12%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 14:20
Betway🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -6.56%E -1.38%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.54%EV -7.02%E -4.47%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -5.03%E -1.12%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 14:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -6.56%E -1.38%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.54%EV -7.02%E -4.47%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -5.03%E -1.12%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 13:49
Marathon Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.64%EV -6.56%E -1.38%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.67%EV -5.83%E -3.67%K -9.89%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -9.25%E -2.15%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 14:20
Unibet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -6.56%E -1.38%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.90%EV -5.24%E -3.28%K -8.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -13.47%E -3.28%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 14:24
Bet Right🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -6.56%E -1.38%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.98%EV -7.61%E -4.88%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%EV -10.30%E -2.42%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 13:49
Codere (IT)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.05%EV -7.55%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.53%EV -4.65%E -2.89%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.42%EV -7.14%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 14:24
PlayUp🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -9.51%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.84%EV -5.24%E -3.28%K -8.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -11.36%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-15 14:15
betfred_uk🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -9.51%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -7.02%E -4.47%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -11.36%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 13:49
BetRivers🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -9.51%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.05%EV -5.24%E -3.28%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.11%EV -16.63%E -4.21%K -5.64%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 13:34
Betclic (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.78%EV -9.51%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.07%EV -8.80%E -5.71%K -16.29%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.16%EV -9.25%E -2.15%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-15 14:24
PMU (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -9.51%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.83%EV -7.61%E -4.88%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -15.58%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-15 14:24
TABtouch🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -9.51%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.83%EV -7.61%E -4.88%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -15.58%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-15 14:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.60%EV -9.51%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.93%EV -9.39%E -6.14%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -11.36%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-15 14:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.48%EV -9.51%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.82%EV -8.20%E -5.29%K -14.91%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.69%EV -16.63%E -4.21%K -5.64%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-15 14:24
Virgin Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.48%EV -9.51%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.82%EV -8.20%E -5.29%K -14.91%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.69%EV -16.63%E -4.21%K -5.64%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-15 14:24
LiveScore Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.48%EV -9.51%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.82%EV -8.20%E -5.29%K -14.91%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.69%EV -16.63%E -4.21%K -5.64%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-15 14:25
888sport🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -11.48%E -2.55%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.05%EV -7.02%E -4.47%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -11.36%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-15 14:24
888sport (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -11.48%E -2.55%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.05%EV -7.02%E -4.47%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -11.36%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-15 14:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -11.48%E -2.55%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.05%EV -7.02%E -4.47%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -11.36%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-15 14:24
BoyleSports🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -11.48%E -2.55%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.05%EV -9.39%E -6.14%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.87%EV -8.61%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 13:55
Unibet (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -11.48%E -2.55%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.82%EV -9.39%E -6.14%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.18%EV -10.30%E -2.42%K -3.17%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-15 14:24
Paddy Power🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.95%EV -11.48%E -2.55%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.68%EV -9.39%E -6.14%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -11.36%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-15 14:14
NetBet (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -11.48%E -2.55%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 59.29%EV -10.57%E -7.00%K -20.73%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.82%EV -9.25%E -2.15%K -2.80%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-15 14:20
Sky Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.74%EV -11.48%E -2.55%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.06%EV -9.39%E -6.14%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.21%EV -15.58%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-15 14:15
William Hill🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.76%EV -13.45%E -3.06%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.40%EV -4.06%E -2.50%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -15.58%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -13.45%E -3.06%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -7.61%E -4.88%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -7.14%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 14:20
Coral🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.66%EV -14.83%E -3.42%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.98%EV -7.02%E -4.47%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -15.58%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-15 14:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.66%EV -14.83%E -3.42%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.98%EV -7.02%E -4.47%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -15.58%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-15 14:15
Winamax (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.26%EV -17.38%E -4.14%K -5.43%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 57.98%EV -8.80%E -5.71%K -16.29%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.76%EV -9.25%E -2.15%K -2.80%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-15 14:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.30I 18.87%NM 18.81%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.42%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.77%0.3%2026-08-15 14:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.30I 18.87%NM 18.81%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.42%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.77%0.3%2026-08-15 14:15
Matchbook◎5.30I 18.87%NM 18.81%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.42%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.77%0.3%2026-08-15 14:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.20I 19.23%NM 19.10%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.20%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.69%0.7%2026-08-15 14:25
Smarkets◎5.20I 19.23%NM 19.03%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.35%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.62%1.0%2026-08-15 14:25
Kalshi◎5.00I 20.00%NM 19.61%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.79%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.60%2.0%2026-08-15 14:20