Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 4.35
assuming max odds 1.82
assuming max odds 4.42
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Willem II (Local): 23.14%; Heerenveen (Visit): 54.19%; Draw: 22.67%. For Willem II (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.32. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.667%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.17%EV +0.667%E +0.153%K +0.199%G +0.001% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.81%EV -4.63%E -2.63%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 4.19I 23.87%NM 23.02%EV -5.01%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-30 12:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.57%EV -0.490%E -0.114%K -0.149%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 4.42I 22.62%NM 21.96%EV +0.207%E +0.047%K +0.061%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-30 12:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -0.490%E -0.114%K -0.149%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.53%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.28%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-30 12:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -0.490%E -0.114%K -0.149%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.53%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.28%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-30 12:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -0.490%E -0.114%K -0.149%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.53%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.28%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-30 12:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -0.490%E -0.114%K -0.149%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.53%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.28%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-30 12:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%EV -0.490%E -0.114%K -0.149%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.47%EV -3.55%E -1.99%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.40%EV -11.58%E -2.97%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-30 12:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%EV -0.490%E -0.114%K -0.149%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.47%EV -3.55%E -1.99%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.40%EV -11.58%E -2.97%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-30 12:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.21%EV -2.80%E -0.668%K -0.876%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.57%EV -1.38%E -0.758%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.21%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-08-30 12:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74%EV -2.80%E -0.668%K -0.876%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.20%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 22.06%EV -1.83%E -0.423%K -0.551%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-30 12:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74%EV -2.80%E -0.668%K -0.876%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.20%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 22.06%EV -1.83%E -0.423%K -0.551%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-30 12:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -2.80%E -0.668%K -0.876%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.23%EV -5.71%E -3.28%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.30%EV -8.18%E -2.02%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 12:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.38%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.46%E -1.37%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.38%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-30 12:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.38%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.46%E -1.37%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.38%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-30 12:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.39%EV -5.71%E -3.28%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 12:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.10%EV -7.34%E -4.29%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -2.51%E -0.585%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-30 12:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.71%E -3.28%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-30 12:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.78%EV -5.71%E -3.28%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-30 12:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.96%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 12:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.96%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 12:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.50%EV -8.42%E -4.98%K -12.21%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-30 12:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.22%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.06%EV -2.51%E -0.585%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 12:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.77%EV -3.01%E -1.68%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-30 12:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 12:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 12:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 12:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 12:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 12:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-30 12:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.85%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -12.72%E -3.30%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-30 12:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -8.59%E -2.17%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.74%EV -4.09%E -2.31%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -10.45%E -2.65%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 12:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -8.59%E -2.17%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.74%EV -4.09%E -2.31%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -10.45%E -2.65%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 12:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -8.59%E -2.17%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.74%EV -4.09%E -2.31%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -10.45%E -2.65%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 12:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.93I 25.45%NM 23.19%EV -9.05%E -2.30%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.58%EV -9.51%E -5.69%K -14.19%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.23%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-30 12:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -9.75%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.18%EV -6.80%E -3.95%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -3.65%E -0.858%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-30 12:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -9.75%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.56%EV -4.63%E -2.63%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -11.58%E -2.97%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-30 12:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -9.75%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -11.58%E -2.97%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-30 12:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -9.75%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -11.58%E -2.97%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-30 12:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -9.75%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -11.58%E -2.97%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-30 12:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -9.75%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -11.58%E -2.97%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-30 12:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.15%EV -9.75%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.10%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -13.85%E -3.64%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-30 12:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -9.75%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.17%EV -10.59%E -6.42%K -16.29%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -11.58%E -2.97%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-30 12:24 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -10.90%E -2.83%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.73%EV -7.34%E -4.29%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-30 12:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.19%EV -10.90%E -2.83%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 54.77%EV -11.68%E -7.16%K -18.53%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.04%EV -8.18%E -2.02%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-30 12:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -12.06%E -3.17%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -13.85%E -3.64%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-30 12:14 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -12.06%E -3.17%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.20%EV -5.71%E -3.28%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -13.85%E -3.64%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-30 12:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -12.06%E -3.17%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.20%EV -5.71%E -3.28%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -13.85%E -3.64%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-30 12:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -12.06%E -3.17%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.78%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -13.85%E -3.64%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-30 12:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.54%EV -12.06%E -3.17%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.61%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%EV -14.98%E -4.00%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-30 12:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -13.22%E -3.52%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-30 12:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -13.22%E -3.52%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.53%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-30 12:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -13.22%E -3.52%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.16%EV -6.80%E -3.95%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -14.98%E -4.00%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-30 12:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -13.22%E -3.52%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.16%EV -6.80%E -3.95%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -14.98%E -4.00%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-30 12:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -13.22%E -3.52%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.16%EV -6.80%E -3.95%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -14.98%E -4.00%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-30 12:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.63%EV -13.22%E -3.52%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.06%EV -9.51%E -5.69%K -14.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -13.85%E -3.64%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-30 12:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.48%EV -15.53%E -4.26%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.18%EV -8.97%E -5.34%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-30 12:05 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.78% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.44% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.78% | 0.9% | 2026-08-30 12:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.52% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.44% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04% | 0.9% | 2026-08-30 12:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.52% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.44% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04% | 0.9% | 2026-08-30 12:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.46% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.01% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.53% | 1.2% | 2026-08-30 12:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.14% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.46% | 1.5% | 2026-08-30 12:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.73% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.00% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.27% | 2.3% | 2026-08-30 12:25 |