Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Willem II v Heerenveen

Início: 2026-08-30 12:30 UTC

Final: Willem II 2–2 Heerenveen

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

56 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Willem II (Local)

Previsão 23.14%4.32odd justa
EV +0.667%
Vantagem +0.153%
Kelly +0.199%
Crescimento +0.001%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.35

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
22.13%23.14%23.13%24.48%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.654.004.004.3527.40%25.00%25.00%22.99%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Heerenveen (Visitante)

Previsão 54.19%1.85odd justa
EV -1.38%
Vantagem -0.758%
Kelly -1.68%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.82

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
52.05%54.09%54.29%55.47%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.631.731.741.8261.35%57.66%57.47%54.95%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 22.67%4.41odd justa
EV +0.207%
Vantagem +0.047%
Kelly +0.061%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.42

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
21.91%22.77%22.58%24.40%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.754.034.004.4226.67%24.83%25.00%22.62%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Willem II (Local): 23.14%; Heerenveen (Visitante): 54.19%; Empate: 22.67%. Para Willem II (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.32. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.35, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.667%.

Odds das casas de apostas (56 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 22.17%EV +0.667%E +0.153%K +0.199%G +0.001%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.81%EV -4.63%E -2.63%K -6.09%G +0.000%4.19I 23.87%NM 23.02%EV -5.01%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-30 12:20
1xBet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.57%EV -0.490%E -0.114%K -0.149%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.96%EV +0.207%E +0.047%K +0.061%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-30 12:25
BetOnline.ag🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -0.490%E -0.114%K -0.149%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.53%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.28%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-30 12:20
LowVig.ag🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -0.490%E -0.114%K -0.149%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.53%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.28%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-30 12:20
BetAnything🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -0.490%E -0.114%K -0.149%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.53%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.28%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-30 12:25
BetUS🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -0.490%E -0.114%K -0.149%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.53%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.28%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-30 12:24
Betsson🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%EV -0.490%E -0.114%K -0.149%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.47%EV -3.55%E -1.99%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.40%EV -11.58%E -2.97%K -3.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 12:05
NordicBet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%EV -0.490%E -0.114%K -0.149%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.47%EV -3.55%E -1.99%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.40%EV -11.58%E -2.97%K -3.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 12:05
Unibet (NL)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 23.21%EV -2.80%E -0.668%K -0.876%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.57%EV -1.38%E -0.758%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.21%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-30 12:20
betano_uk🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74%EV -2.80%E -0.668%K -0.876%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.20%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.06%EV -1.83%E -0.423%K -0.551%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-30 12:09
Bet Victor🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74%EV -2.80%E -0.668%K -0.876%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.20%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.06%EV -1.83%E -0.423%K -0.551%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-30 12:10
Bovada🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -2.80%E -0.668%K -0.876%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.23%EV -5.71%E -3.28%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.30%EV -8.18%E -2.02%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 12:25
Svenska Spel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.38%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.46%E -1.37%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.38%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-30 12:20
ATG (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.38%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.46%E -1.37%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.38%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-30 12:20
DraftKings🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.39%EV -5.71%E -3.28%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 12:05
Fanatics🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.10%EV -7.34%E -4.29%K -10.34%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -2.51%E -0.585%K -0.762%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 12:00
BetMGM🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.71%E -3.28%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 12:00
SportsBet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.78%EV -5.71%E -3.28%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 12:20
Tipico (DE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.96%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 12:20
Marathon Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.96%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 12:19
FanDuel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.50%EV -8.42%E -4.98%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-30 12:15
Coolbet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.22%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.06%EV -2.51%E -0.585%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 12:10
Grosvenor🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.77%EV -3.01%E -1.68%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-30 12:20
Coral🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 12:00
Codere (IT)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 12:05
Unibet (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 12:05
Betr (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 12:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 12:00
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-30 12:04
PlayUp🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.85%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -12.72%E -3.30%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 12:05
Casumo🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -8.59%E -2.17%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.74%EV -4.09%E -2.31%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -10.45%E -2.65%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 12:20
Unibet (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -8.59%E -2.17%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.74%EV -4.09%E -2.31%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -10.45%E -2.65%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 12:20
betPARX🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -8.59%E -2.17%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.74%EV -4.09%E -2.31%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -10.45%E -2.65%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 12:20
Betclic (FR)🎯3.93I 25.45%NM 23.19%EV -9.05%E -2.30%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.58%EV -9.51%E -5.69%K -14.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.23%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-30 12:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -9.75%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.18%EV -6.80%E -3.95%K -9.44%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -3.65%E -0.858%K -1.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 12:10
Unibet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -9.75%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.56%EV -4.63%E -2.63%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -11.58%E -2.97%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 12:20
888sport🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -9.75%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -11.58%E -2.97%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 12:00
888sport (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -9.75%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -11.58%E -2.97%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 12:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -9.75%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -11.58%E -2.97%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 12:00
William Hill🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -9.75%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -11.58%E -2.97%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 12:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.15%EV -9.75%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.10%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -13.85%E -3.64%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-30 12:15
NetBet (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -9.75%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.17%EV -10.59%E -6.42%K -16.29%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -11.58%E -2.97%K -3.99%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 12:24
Bet Right🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -10.90%E -2.83%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.73%EV -7.34%E -4.29%K -10.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 12:10
Unibet (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.19%EV -10.90%E -2.83%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 54.77%EV -11.68%E -7.16%K -18.53%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.04%EV -8.18%E -2.02%K -2.68%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-30 12:04
BetRivers🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -12.06%E -3.17%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -13.85%E -3.64%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-30 12:14
PMU (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -12.06%E -3.17%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.20%EV -5.71%E -3.28%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -13.85%E -3.64%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 12:20
TABtouch🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -12.06%E -3.17%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.20%EV -5.71%E -3.28%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -13.85%E -3.64%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 12:20
Paddy Power🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -12.06%E -3.17%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.78%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -13.85%E -3.64%K -4.95%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-30 12:15
Sky Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.54%EV -12.06%E -3.17%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.61%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%EV -14.98%E -4.00%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-30 12:20
betfred_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -13.22%E -3.52%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 12:10
Winamax (DE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -13.22%E -3.52%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.53%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-30 12:05
Virgin Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -13.22%E -3.52%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.16%EV -6.80%E -3.95%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -14.98%E -4.00%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-30 12:20
LiveScore Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -13.22%E -3.52%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.16%EV -6.80%E -3.95%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -14.98%E -4.00%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-30 12:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -13.22%E -3.52%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.16%EV -6.80%E -3.95%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -14.98%E -4.00%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-30 12:20
BoyleSports🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.63%EV -13.22%E -3.52%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.06%EV -9.51%E -5.69%K -14.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -13.85%E -3.64%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-30 12:10
Winamax (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.48%EV -15.53%E -4.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.18%EV -8.97%E -5.34%K -13.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 12:05
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi◎4.35I 22.99%NM 22.78%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.44%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.78%0.9%2026-08-30 12:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.52%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.44%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04%0.9%2026-08-30 12:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.52%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.44%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04%0.9%2026-08-30 12:25
Matchbook◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.46%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.01%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.53%1.2%2026-08-30 12:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.14%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.46%1.5%2026-08-30 12:25
Smarkets◎4.30I 23.26%NM 22.73%1.81I 55.25%NM 54.00%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.27%2.3%2026-08-30 12:25