Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Willem II v Heerenveen

Coup d’envoi : 2026-08-30 12:30 UTC

Score final : Willem II 2–2 Heerenveen

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Willem II (Local)

Prévision 23.14%4.32cote équitable
EV +0.667%
Avantage +0.153%
Kelly +0.199%
Croissance +0.001%

avec la cote maximale 4.35

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
22.13%23.14%23.13%24.48%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.654.004.004.3527.40%25.00%25.00%22.99%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Heerenveen (Visiteur)

Prévision 54.19%1.85cote équitable
EV -1.38%
Avantage -0.758%
Kelly -1.68%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.82

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
52.05%54.09%54.29%55.47%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.631.731.741.8261.35%57.66%57.47%54.95%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 22.67%4.41cote équitable
EV +0.207%
Avantage +0.047%
Kelly +0.061%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.42

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.91%22.77%22.58%24.40%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.754.034.004.4226.67%24.83%25.00%22.62%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Willem II (Local) : 23.14% ; Heerenveen (Visiteur) : 54.19% ; Match nul : 22.67%. Pour Willem II (Local), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 4.32. 1 opérateur proposait une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 4.35, soit une espérance positive de +0.667%.

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 22.17%EV +0.667%E +0.153%K +0.199%G +0.001%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.81%EV -4.63%E -2.63%K -6.09%G +0.000%4.19I 23.87%NM 23.02%EV -5.01%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-30 12:20
1xBet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.57%EV -0.490%E -0.114%K -0.149%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.96%EV +0.207%E +0.047%K +0.061%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-30 12:25
BetOnline.ag🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -0.490%E -0.114%K -0.149%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.53%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.28%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-30 12:20
LowVig.ag🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -0.490%E -0.114%K -0.149%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.53%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.28%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-30 12:20
BetAnything🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -0.490%E -0.114%K -0.149%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.53%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.28%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-30 12:25
BetUS🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -0.490%E -0.114%K -0.149%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.53%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.28%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-30 12:24
Betsson🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%EV -0.490%E -0.114%K -0.149%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.47%EV -3.55%E -1.99%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.40%EV -11.58%E -2.97%K -3.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 12:05
NordicBet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%EV -0.490%E -0.114%K -0.149%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.47%EV -3.55%E -1.99%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.40%EV -11.58%E -2.97%K -3.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 12:05
Unibet (NL)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 23.21%EV -2.80%E -0.668%K -0.876%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.57%EV -1.38%E -0.758%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.21%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-30 12:20
betano_uk🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74%EV -2.80%E -0.668%K -0.876%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.20%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.06%EV -1.83%E -0.423%K -0.551%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-30 12:09
Bet Victor🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74%EV -2.80%E -0.668%K -0.876%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.20%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.06%EV -1.83%E -0.423%K -0.551%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-30 12:10
Bovada🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -2.80%E -0.668%K -0.876%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.23%EV -5.71%E -3.28%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.30%EV -8.18%E -2.02%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 12:25
Svenska Spel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.38%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.46%E -1.37%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.38%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-30 12:20
ATG (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.38%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.46%E -1.37%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.38%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-30 12:20
DraftKings🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.39%EV -5.71%E -3.28%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 12:05
Fanatics🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.10%EV -7.34%E -4.29%K -10.34%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -2.51%E -0.585%K -0.762%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 12:00
BetMGM🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.71%E -3.28%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 12:00
SportsBet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.78%EV -5.71%E -3.28%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 12:20
Tipico (DE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.96%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 12:20
Marathon Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.96%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 12:19
FanDuel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -5.12%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.50%EV -8.42%E -4.98%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-30 12:15
Coolbet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.22%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.06%EV -2.51%E -0.585%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 12:10
Grosvenor🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.77%EV -3.01%E -1.68%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-30 12:20
Coral🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 12:00
Codere (IT)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 12:05
Unibet (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 12:05
Betr (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 12:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 12:00
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-30 12:04
PlayUp🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -7.43%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.85%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -12.72%E -3.30%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 12:05
Casumo🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -8.59%E -2.17%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.74%EV -4.09%E -2.31%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -10.45%E -2.65%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 12:20
Unibet (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -8.59%E -2.17%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.74%EV -4.09%E -2.31%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -10.45%E -2.65%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 12:20
betPARX🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -8.59%E -2.17%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.74%EV -4.09%E -2.31%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -10.45%E -2.65%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 12:20
Betclic (FR)🎯3.93I 25.45%NM 23.19%EV -9.05%E -2.30%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.58%EV -9.51%E -5.69%K -14.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.23%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-30 12:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -9.75%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.18%EV -6.80%E -3.95%K -9.44%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -3.65%E -0.858%K -1.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 12:10
Unibet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -9.75%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.56%EV -4.63%E -2.63%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -11.58%E -2.97%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 12:20
888sport🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -9.75%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -11.58%E -2.97%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 12:00
888sport (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -9.75%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -11.58%E -2.97%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 12:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -9.75%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -11.58%E -2.97%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 12:00
William Hill🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -9.75%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -11.58%E -2.97%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 12:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.15%EV -9.75%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.10%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -13.85%E -3.64%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-30 12:15
NetBet (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -9.75%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.17%EV -10.59%E -6.42%K -16.29%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -11.58%E -2.97%K -3.99%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 12:24
Bet Right🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -10.90%E -2.83%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.73%EV -7.34%E -4.29%K -10.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 12:10
Unibet (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.19%EV -10.90%E -2.83%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 54.77%EV -11.68%E -7.16%K -18.53%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.04%EV -8.18%E -2.02%K -2.68%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-30 12:04
BetRivers🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -12.06%E -3.17%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -13.85%E -3.64%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-30 12:14
PMU (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -12.06%E -3.17%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.20%EV -5.71%E -3.28%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -13.85%E -3.64%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 12:20
TABtouch🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -12.06%E -3.17%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.20%EV -5.71%E -3.28%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -13.85%E -3.64%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 12:20
Paddy Power🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -12.06%E -3.17%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.78%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -13.85%E -3.64%K -4.95%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-30 12:15
Sky Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.54%EV -12.06%E -3.17%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.61%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%EV -14.98%E -4.00%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-30 12:20
betfred_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -13.22%E -3.52%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 12:10
Winamax (DE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -13.22%E -3.52%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.53%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-30 12:05
Virgin Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -13.22%E -3.52%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.16%EV -6.80%E -3.95%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -14.98%E -4.00%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-30 12:20
LiveScore Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -13.22%E -3.52%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.16%EV -6.80%E -3.95%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -14.98%E -4.00%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-30 12:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -13.22%E -3.52%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.16%EV -6.80%E -3.95%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -14.98%E -4.00%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-30 12:20
BoyleSports🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.63%EV -13.22%E -3.52%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.06%EV -9.51%E -5.69%K -14.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -13.85%E -3.64%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-30 12:10
Winamax (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.48%EV -15.53%E -4.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.18%EV -8.97%E -5.34%K -13.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 12:05
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Kalshi◎4.35I 22.99%NM 22.78%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.44%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.78%0.9%2026-08-30 12:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.52%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.44%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04%0.9%2026-08-30 12:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.52%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.44%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04%0.9%2026-08-30 12:25
Matchbook◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.46%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.01%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.53%1.2%2026-08-30 12:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.14%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.46%1.5%2026-08-30 12:25
Smarkets◎4.30I 23.26%NM 22.73%1.81I 55.25%NM 54.00%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.27%2.3%2026-08-30 12:25