Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 3.05
assuming max odds 2.36
assuming max odds 3.75
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Willem II (Local): 33.18%; Excelsior (Visit): 40.67%; Draw: 26.14%. For Willem II (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.01. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.21%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.80%EV +1.21%E +0.397%K +0.590%G +0.007% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.27%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-04 08:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.80%EV +1.21%E +0.397%K +0.590%G +0.007% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.27%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-04 08:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.80%EV +1.21%E +0.397%K +0.590%G +0.007% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.27%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-04 08:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -0.449%E -0.150%K -0.224%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 08:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -2.11%E -0.715%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.09%EV -7.27%E -3.19%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -9.80%E -2.84%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 08:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -2.11%E -0.715%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.09%EV -7.27%E -3.19%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -9.80%E -2.84%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 08:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -2.11%E -0.715%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.09%EV -7.27%E -3.19%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -9.80%E -2.84%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 08:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.91I 34.36%NM 33.00%EV -3.44%E -1.18%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.69%EV -4.01%E -1.70%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.31%EV -4.57%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-03 15:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.55%EV -3.77%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 40.86%EV -6.05%E -2.62%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -7.19%E -2.02%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-03 07:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -3.77%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-03 03:13 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -3.77%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-30 16:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -3.77%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -8.49%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-03 07:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.43%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.54%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 26.03%EV -4.31%E -1.18%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-03 02:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.43%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.54%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 26.03%EV -4.31%E -1.18%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-03 02:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.43%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.54%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 26.03%EV -4.31%E -1.18%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-03 02:49 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.43%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.54%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 26.03%EV -4.31%E -1.18%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-03 02:48 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.34%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.32%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -1.96%E -0.523%K -0.713%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 19:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.68%EV -5.64%E -2.43%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-03 19:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.68%EV -5.64%E -2.43%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-03 19:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-04 12:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.96%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 40.85%EV -9.30%E -4.17%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -12.42%E -3.71%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-04 08:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.65%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.01%EV -10.52%E -4.78%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -13.72%E -4.16%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-04 08:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.65%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.01%EV -10.52%E -4.78%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -13.72%E -4.16%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-04 08:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.54%EV -5.76%E -2.03%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.71%EV -4.83%E -2.06%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -3.27%E -0.883%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-03 14:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.83I 35.34%NM 32.95%EV -6.09%E -2.15%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 40.72%EV -6.86%E -3.00%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.34%EV -7.45%E -2.10%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-03 14:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 16:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -3.27%E -0.883%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-03 19:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.57%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 40.69%EV -6.05%E -2.62%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.75%EV -4.57%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-03 14:51 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.60%EV -8.49%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.96%EV -1.96%E -0.523%K -0.713%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-04 10:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 16:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-03 22:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 20:33 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 20:38 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-02 19:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -8.49%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -3.27%E -0.883%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-30 16:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -8.49%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -3.27%E -0.883%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-30 16:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -8.49%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-02 04:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.92%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.00%EV -11.33%E -5.20%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -13.72%E -4.16%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-04 08:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.92%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.00%EV -11.33%E -5.20%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -13.72%E -4.16%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-04 08:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.92%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.00%EV -11.33%E -5.20%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -13.72%E -4.16%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-04 08:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -14.59%E -6.95%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-03 19:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-02 17:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 19:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.49%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -7.19%E -2.02%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-03 19:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-02 05:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-02 05:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-02 05:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-02 05:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.49%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-30 15:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -10.52%E -4.78%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.82%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.02%EV -10.52%E -4.78%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.16%EV -9.80%E -2.84%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-03 03:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 33.36%EV -9.74%E -3.58%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.33%EV -8.49%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -9.80%E -2.84%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-04 07:03 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 32.75%EV -9.74%E -3.58%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.05%EV -11.74%E -5.41%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.20%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-03 19:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -12.55%E -5.84%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-02 19:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -12.55%E -5.84%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-09-03 03:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.02%EV -13.06%E -4.98%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -10.52%E -4.78%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-01 16:45 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.61% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.22% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.17% | 1.9% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.61% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.22% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.17% | 1.9% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.34% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.17% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49% | 2.0% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.50% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.42% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.08% | 2.2% | 2026-09-04 14:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.42% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.38% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19% | 3.2% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |