Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Willem II v Excelsior

Início: 2026-09-05 19:00 UTC

Final: Willem II 0–3 Excelsior

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

56 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Willem II (Local)

Previsão 33.18%3.01odd justa
EV +1.21%
Vantagem +0.397%
Kelly +0.590%
Crescimento +0.007%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.05

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
31.63%33.14%33.26%34.02%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.622.832.803.0538.17%35.38%35.71%32.79%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Excelsior (Visitante)

Previsão 40.67%2.46odd justa
EV -4.01%
Vantagem -1.70%
Kelly -2.95%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.36

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
39.80%40.69%40.60%42.24%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.102.272.302.3647.62%43.98%43.48%42.37%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 26.14%3.82odd justa
EV -1.96%
Vantagem -0.523%
Kelly -0.713%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.75

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
24.96%26.17%26.14%27.34%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.303.533.543.7530.30%28.34%28.21%26.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Willem II (Local): 33.18%; Excelsior (Visitante): 40.67%; Empate: 26.14%. Para Willem II (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.01. 3 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.05, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.21%.

Odds das casas de apostas (56 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.80%EV +1.21%E +0.397%K +0.590%G +0.007%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.27%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-04 08:05
Svenska Spel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.80%EV +1.21%E +0.397%K +0.590%G +0.007%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.27%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-04 08:05
ATG (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.80%EV +1.21%E +0.397%K +0.590%G +0.007%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.27%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-04 08:05
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -0.449%E -0.150%K -0.224%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 08:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -2.11%E -0.715%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.09%EV -7.27%E -3.19%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -9.80%E -2.84%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 08:05
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -2.11%E -0.715%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.09%EV -7.27%E -3.19%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -9.80%E -2.84%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 08:05
betPARX🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -2.11%E -0.715%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.09%EV -7.27%E -3.19%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -9.80%E -2.84%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 08:05
1xBet🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 33.00%EV -3.44%E -1.18%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.69%EV -4.01%E -1.70%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.31%EV -4.57%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-03 15:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.55%EV -3.77%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.86%EV -6.05%E -2.62%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -7.19%E -2.02%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 07:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -3.77%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 03:13
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -3.77%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 16:14
Unibet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -3.77%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -8.49%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-03 07:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.43%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.54%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.03%EV -4.31%E -1.18%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 02:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.43%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.54%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.03%EV -4.31%E -1.18%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 02:49
BetUS🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.43%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.54%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.03%EV -4.31%E -1.18%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 02:49
BetAnything🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.43%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.54%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.03%EV -4.31%E -1.18%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 02:48
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.34%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.32%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -1.96%E -0.523%K -0.713%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 19:04
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.68%EV -5.64%E -2.43%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 19:10
Betsson🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.68%EV -5.64%E -2.43%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 19:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 12:19
BetRivers🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.96%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.85%EV -9.30%E -4.17%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -12.42%E -3.71%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-04 08:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.65%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.01%EV -10.52%E -4.78%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -13.72%E -4.16%K -5.97%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-04 08:05
TABtouch🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.65%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.01%EV -10.52%E -4.78%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -13.72%E -4.16%K -5.97%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-04 08:05
Pinnacle🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.54%EV -5.76%E -2.03%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.71%EV -4.83%E -2.06%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -3.27%E -0.883%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 14:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 32.95%EV -6.09%E -2.15%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.72%EV -6.86%E -3.00%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.34%EV -7.45%E -2.10%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 14:50
BetMGM🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 16:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -3.27%E -0.883%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 19:04
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.57%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.69%EV -6.05%E -2.62%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.75%EV -4.57%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 14:51
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.60%EV -8.49%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.96%EV -1.96%E -0.523%K -0.713%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 10:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 16:20
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 22:40
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 20:33
betano_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 20:38
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 19:00
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -8.49%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -3.27%E -0.883%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 16:15
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -8.49%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -3.27%E -0.883%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 16:15
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -8.49%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-02 04:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.92%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.00%EV -11.33%E -5.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -13.72%E -4.16%K -5.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-04 08:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.92%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.00%EV -11.33%E -5.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -13.72%E -4.16%K -5.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-04 08:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.92%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.00%EV -11.33%E -5.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -13.72%E -4.16%K -5.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-04 08:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -14.59%E -6.95%K -13.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 19:05
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-02 17:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-03 19:05
Bet Right🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.49%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -7.19%E -2.02%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-03 19:04
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 05:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 05:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 05:00
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 05:00
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.49%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-30 15:40
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -10.52%E -4.78%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-31 19:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.82%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.02%EV -10.52%E -4.78%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.16%EV -9.80%E -2.84%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-03 03:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.36%EV -9.74%E -3.58%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.33%EV -8.49%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -9.80%E -2.84%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-04 07:03
NetBet (FR)🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 32.75%EV -9.74%E -3.58%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.05%EV -11.74%E -5.41%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.20%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-03 19:15
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -12.55%E -5.84%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-02 19:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -12.55%E -5.84%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-03 03:15
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.02%EV -13.06%E -4.98%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -10.52%E -4.78%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-01 16:45
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.61%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.22%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.17%1.9%2026-09-04 14:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.61%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.22%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.17%1.9%2026-09-04 14:15
Kalshi◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.34%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.17%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%2.0%2026-09-04 14:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.50%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.42%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.08%2.2%2026-09-04 14:10
Smarkets◎2.90I 34.48%NM 33.42%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.38%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%3.2%2026-09-04 14:30