Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Willem II v Excelsior

Coup d’envoi : 2026-09-05 19:00 UTC

Score final : Willem II 0–3 Excelsior

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Willem II (Local)

Prévision 33.18%3.01cote équitable
EV +1.21%
Avantage +0.397%
Kelly +0.590%
Croissance +0.007%

avec la cote maximale 3.05

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
31.63%33.14%33.26%34.02%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.622.832.803.0538.17%35.38%35.71%32.79%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Excelsior (Visiteur)

Prévision 40.67%2.46cote équitable
EV -4.01%
Avantage -1.70%
Kelly -2.95%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.36

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
39.80%40.69%40.60%42.24%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.102.272.302.3647.62%43.98%43.48%42.37%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 26.14%3.82cote équitable
EV -1.96%
Avantage -0.523%
Kelly -0.713%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.96%26.17%26.14%27.34%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.303.533.543.7530.30%28.34%28.21%26.67%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Willem II (Local) : 33.18% ; Excelsior (Visiteur) : 40.67% ; Match nul : 26.14%. Pour Willem II (Local), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 3.01. 3 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 3.05, soit une espérance positive de +1.21%.

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.80%EV +1.21%E +0.397%K +0.590%G +0.007%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.27%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-04 08:05
Svenska Spel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.80%EV +1.21%E +0.397%K +0.590%G +0.007%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.27%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-04 08:05
ATG (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.80%EV +1.21%E +0.397%K +0.590%G +0.007%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.27%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-04 08:05
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -0.449%E -0.150%K -0.224%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 08:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -2.11%E -0.715%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.09%EV -7.27%E -3.19%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -9.80%E -2.84%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 08:05
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -2.11%E -0.715%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.09%EV -7.27%E -3.19%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -9.80%E -2.84%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 08:05
betPARX🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -2.11%E -0.715%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.09%EV -7.27%E -3.19%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -9.80%E -2.84%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 08:05
1xBet🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 33.00%EV -3.44%E -1.18%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.69%EV -4.01%E -1.70%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.31%EV -4.57%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-03 15:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.55%EV -3.77%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.86%EV -6.05%E -2.62%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -7.19%E -2.02%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 07:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -3.77%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 03:13
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -3.77%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 16:14
Unibet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -3.77%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -8.49%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-03 07:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.43%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.54%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.03%EV -4.31%E -1.18%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 02:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.43%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.54%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.03%EV -4.31%E -1.18%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 02:49
BetUS🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.43%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.54%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.03%EV -4.31%E -1.18%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 02:49
BetAnything🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.43%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.54%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.03%EV -4.31%E -1.18%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 02:48
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.34%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.32%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -1.96%E -0.523%K -0.713%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 19:04
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.68%EV -5.64%E -2.43%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 19:10
Betsson🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.68%EV -5.64%E -2.43%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 19:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 12:19
BetRivers🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.96%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.85%EV -9.30%E -4.17%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -12.42%E -3.71%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-04 08:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.65%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.01%EV -10.52%E -4.78%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -13.72%E -4.16%K -5.97%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-04 08:05
TABtouch🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.65%EV -5.43%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.01%EV -10.52%E -4.78%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -13.72%E -4.16%K -5.97%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-04 08:05
Pinnacle🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.54%EV -5.76%E -2.03%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.71%EV -4.83%E -2.06%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -3.27%E -0.883%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 14:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 32.95%EV -6.09%E -2.15%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.72%EV -6.86%E -3.00%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.34%EV -7.45%E -2.10%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 14:50
BetMGM🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 16:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -3.27%E -0.883%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 19:04
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.57%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.69%EV -6.05%E -2.62%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.75%EV -4.57%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 14:51
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.60%EV -8.49%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.96%EV -1.96%E -0.523%K -0.713%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 10:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 16:20
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 22:40
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 20:33
betano_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 20:38
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 19:00
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -8.49%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -3.27%E -0.883%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 16:15
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -8.49%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -3.27%E -0.883%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 16:15
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -8.49%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-02 04:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.92%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.00%EV -11.33%E -5.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -13.72%E -4.16%K -5.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-04 08:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.92%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.00%EV -11.33%E -5.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -13.72%E -4.16%K -5.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-04 08:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.92%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.00%EV -11.33%E -5.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -13.72%E -4.16%K -5.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-04 08:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -14.59%E -6.95%K -13.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 19:05
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-02 17:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-03 19:05
Bet Right🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.49%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -7.19%E -2.02%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-03 19:04
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 05:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 05:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 05:00
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 05:00
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.49%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-30 15:40
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -10.52%E -4.78%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-31 19:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.82%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.02%EV -10.52%E -4.78%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.16%EV -9.80%E -2.84%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-03 03:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.36%EV -9.74%E -3.58%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.33%EV -8.49%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -9.80%E -2.84%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-04 07:03
NetBet (FR)🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 32.75%EV -9.74%E -3.58%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.05%EV -11.74%E -5.41%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.20%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-03 19:15
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -12.55%E -5.84%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-02 19:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -12.55%E -5.84%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-03 03:15
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.02%EV -13.06%E -4.98%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -10.52%E -4.78%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-01 16:45
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.61%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.22%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.17%1.9%2026-09-04 14:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.61%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.22%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.17%1.9%2026-09-04 14:15
Kalshi◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.34%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.17%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%2.0%2026-09-04 14:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.50%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.42%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.08%2.2%2026-09-04 14:10
Smarkets◎2.90I 34.48%NM 33.42%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.38%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%3.2%2026-09-04 14:30