Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 5.50
assuming max odds 1.67
assuming max odds 4.50
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sparta Rotterdam (Local): 18.63%; Feyenoord (Visit): 59.38%; Draw: 21.99%. For Sparta Rotterdam (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.37. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.45%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV +2.45%E +0.446%K +0.545%G +0.013% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.29%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.17%EV -4.34%E -0.998%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-09 10:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV +2.45%E +0.446%K +0.545%G +0.013% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.29%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.17%EV -4.34%E -0.998%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-09 10:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV +2.45%E +0.446%K +0.545%G +0.013% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.29%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.17%EV -4.34%E -0.998%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-09 10:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.02%EV +0.589%E +0.109%K +0.134%G +0.001% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.34%EV -2.61%E -1.59%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.63%EV -5.44%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-09 10:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.02%EV +0.589%E +0.109%K +0.134%G +0.001% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.34%EV -2.61%E -1.59%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.63%EV -5.44%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-09 10:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.02%EV +0.589%E +0.109%K +0.134%G +0.001% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.34%EV -2.61%E -1.59%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.63%EV -5.44%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-09 10:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.39I 18.55%NM 17.98%EV +0.402%E +0.075%K +0.092%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.19%EV -4.39%E -2.73%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 4.44I 22.52%NM 21.83%EV -2.36%E -0.532%K -0.687%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-09 10:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.67%EV -1.27%E -0.240%K -0.296%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.03%EV -7.36%E -4.72%K -13.15%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -7.64%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-09 09:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.53%EV -1.27%E -0.240%K -0.296%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.34%EV -8.55%E -5.55%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -7.64%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-09 10:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.27I 18.98%NM 18.20%EV -1.83%E -0.348%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.95%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 4.39I 22.78%NM 21.85%EV -3.46%E -0.789%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-09 10:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -2.21%E -0.420%K -0.519%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.68%EV -6.77%E -4.31%K -11.88%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.17%EV -1.04%E -0.232%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-09 10:10 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -2.21%E -0.420%K -0.519%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.68%EV -6.77%E -4.31%K -11.88%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.17%EV -1.04%E -0.232%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-09 10:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.11%EV -2.21%E -0.420%K -0.519%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.79%EV -5.58%E -3.51%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11%EV -5.44%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-09 10:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -2.21%E -0.420%K -0.519%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.80%EV -9.15%E -5.98%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.48%EV -4.78%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-09 10:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.19%EV -3.14%E -0.603%K -0.747%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.74%EV -4.39%E -2.73%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -9.84%E -2.40%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-09 10:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.97%EV -3.14%E -0.603%K -0.747%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.29%EV -7.96%E -5.13%K -14.47%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -5.44%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 10:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.35%EV -5.00%E -0.980%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.62%EV -6.77%E -4.31%K -11.88%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -6.54%E -1.54%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-09 10:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.31%EV -5.00%E -0.980%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.47%EV -6.77%E -4.31%K -11.88%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV -7.64%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-09 10:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.40%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV -3.24%E -0.737%K -0.954%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-09 09:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.64%EV -4.39%E -2.73%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -7.64%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-09 09:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.64%EV -4.39%E -2.73%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -7.64%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-09 09:33 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.84%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.25%EV -5.58%E -3.51%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -5.44%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-09 10:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.55%EV -6.18%E -3.91%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.63%EV -4.34%E -0.998%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-09 10:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -7.64%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-09 09:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.47%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -9.84%E -2.40%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-09 10:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.47%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -9.84%E -2.40%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-09 10:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.47%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -9.84%E -2.40%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-09 10:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.40%EV -6.77%E -4.31%K -11.88%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -6.54%E -1.54%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-09 09:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.45%EV -6.18%E -3.91%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -12.04%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-09 09:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -10.93%E -7.28%K -21.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -12.04%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-09 09:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -10.93%E -7.28%K -21.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -12.04%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-09 10:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.21%EV -7.79%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.68%EV -3.80%E -2.35%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11%EV -5.44%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-09 09:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.21%EV -7.79%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.68%EV -3.80%E -2.35%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11%EV -5.44%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-09 09:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.32%EV -8.73%E -1.78%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.17%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.51%EV -3.24%E -0.737%K -0.954%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-09 09:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.77%EV -8.73%E -1.78%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.23%EV -6.18%E -3.91%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -12.04%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-09 10:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.68%EV -9.66%E -1.99%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -9.15%E -5.98%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.10%EV -9.84%E -2.40%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-09 10:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.12%EV -10.59%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.35%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -14.24%E -3.65%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-09 10:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.12%EV -10.59%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.35%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -14.24%E -3.65%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-09 10:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.12%EV -10.59%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.35%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -14.24%E -3.65%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-09 10:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.12%EV -10.59%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.35%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -14.24%E -3.65%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-09 10:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.91%EV -10.59%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.82%EV -6.77%E -4.31%K -11.88%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.27%EV -14.24%E -3.65%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-09 09:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.84%EV -10.59%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.97%EV -7.36%E -4.72%K -13.15%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -14.24%E -3.65%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-09 10:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.63%EV -10.59%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.44%EV -9.15%E -5.98%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -14.24%E -3.65%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-09 10:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.47%EV -10.59%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 59.91%EV -12.11%E -8.19%K -25.24%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV -9.84%E -2.40%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-09 10:08 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.32%EV -11.52%E -2.43%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.83%EV -7.36%E -4.72%K -13.15%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -7.64%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-09 09:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.98%EV -11.52%E -2.43%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.30%EV -9.74%E -6.41%K -18.73%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 21.72%EV -8.74%E -2.11%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-09 10:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.87%EV -11.52%E -2.43%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.84%EV -7.96%E -5.13%K -14.47%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.29%EV -15.34%E -3.98%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-09 10:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.87%EV -11.52%E -2.43%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.84%EV -7.96%E -5.13%K -14.47%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.29%EV -15.34%E -3.98%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-09 10:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.87%EV -11.52%E -2.43%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.84%EV -7.96%E -5.13%K -14.47%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.29%EV -15.34%E -3.98%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-09 10:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.16%EV -12.45%E -2.65%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.73%EV -0.832%E -0.498%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.11%EV -9.84%E -2.40%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-09 09:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.84%EV -12.45%E -2.65%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.86%EV -9.15%E -5.98%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.30%EV -16.44%E -4.33%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-08-09 10:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -14.31%E -3.11%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -6.77%E -4.31%K -11.88%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -7.64%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-09 09:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.78%EV -14.31%E -3.11%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.07%EV -8.55%E -5.55%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.16%EV -5.44%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-09 10:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.03%EV -16.18%E -3.59%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.52%EV -8.55%E -5.55%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.46%EV -7.64%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-09 09:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -21.76%E -5.18%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.15%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -12.04%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-09 10:09 |
| BetUS🎯⚠ implausible | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.80%EV -71.50%E -46.73%K -134.91%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV +190.97%E +38.97%K +48.97%G +93.51% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.53%EV -6.54%E -1.54%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-09 10:10 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.17% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.71% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.13% | 0.4% | 2026-08-09 10:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.17% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.71% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.13% | 0.4% | 2026-08-09 10:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.10% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.85% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.04% | 0.8% | 2026-08-09 10:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.10% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.85% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.04% | 0.8% | 2026-08-09 10:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.35% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.67% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.98% | 1.1% | 2026-08-09 10:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.62% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.85% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.53% | 2.1% | 2026-08-09 09:50 |
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