Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Sparta Rotterdam v Feyenoord

Inicio: 2026-08-09 10:15 UTC

Final: Sparta Rotterdam 0–1 Feyenoord

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Sparta Rotterdam (Local)

Predicción 18.63%5.37momio equitativo
EV +2.45%
Ventaja +0.446%
Kelly +0.545%
Crecimiento +0.013%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.53%18.75%18.65%21.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.204.995.005.5023.81%20.03%20.00%18.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Feyenoord (Visitante)

Predicción 59.38%1.68momio equitativo
EV -0.832%
Ventaja -0.498%
Kelly -1.24%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.67

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.15%59.15%59.29%60.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.481.581.581.6767.57%63.36%63.29%59.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 21.99%4.55momio equitativo
EV -1.04%
Ventaja -0.232%
Kelly -0.298%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.16%22.10%22.06%23.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.804.164.204.5026.32%24.03%23.81%22.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Sparta Rotterdam (Local): 18.63%; Feyenoord (Visitante): 59.38%; Empate: 21.99%. Para Sparta Rotterdam (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.37. 7 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.45%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
BetOnline.ag🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV +2.45%E +0.446%K +0.545%G +0.013%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.29%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.17%EV -4.34%E -0.998%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-09 10:05
LowVig.ag🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV +2.45%E +0.446%K +0.545%G +0.013%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.29%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.17%EV -4.34%E -0.998%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-09 10:05
BetAnything🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV +2.45%E +0.446%K +0.545%G +0.013%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.29%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.17%EV -4.34%E -0.998%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-09 10:05
Unibet (NL)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 18.02%EV +0.589%E +0.109%K +0.134%G +0.001%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.34%EV -2.61%E -1.59%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.63%EV -5.44%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-09 10:10
Svenska Spel🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 18.02%EV +0.589%E +0.109%K +0.134%G +0.001%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.34%EV -2.61%E -1.59%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.63%EV -5.44%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-09 10:10
ATG (SE)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 18.02%EV +0.589%E +0.109%K +0.134%G +0.001%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.34%EV -2.61%E -1.59%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.63%EV -5.44%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-09 10:10
1xBet🎯5.39I 18.55%NM 17.98%EV +0.402%E +0.075%K +0.092%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.19%EV -4.39%E -2.73%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.83%EV -2.36%E -0.532%K -0.687%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-09 10:05
SportsBet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.67%EV -1.27%E -0.240%K -0.296%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.03%EV -7.36%E -4.72%K -13.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -7.64%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 09:49
FanDuel🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.53%EV -1.27%E -0.240%K -0.296%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.34%EV -8.55%E -5.55%K -15.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -7.64%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-09 10:04
Pinnacle🎯5.27I 18.98%NM 18.20%EV -1.83%E -0.348%K -0.429%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.95%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000%4.39I 22.78%NM 21.85%EV -3.46%E -0.789%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-09 10:05
Bet Victor🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -2.21%E -0.420%K -0.519%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.68%EV -6.77%E -4.31%K -11.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.17%EV -1.04%E -0.232%K -0.298%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-09 10:10
betano_uk🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -2.21%E -0.420%K -0.519%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.68%EV -6.77%E -4.31%K -11.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.17%EV -1.04%E -0.232%K -0.298%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-09 10:00
Fanatics🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.11%EV -2.21%E -0.420%K -0.519%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.79%EV -5.58%E -3.51%K -9.46%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11%EV -5.44%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 10:00
Betway🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -2.21%E -0.420%K -0.519%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.80%EV -9.15%E -5.98%K -17.26%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.48%EV -4.78%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 10:10
Grosvenor🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.19%EV -3.14%E -0.603%K -0.747%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.74%EV -4.39%E -2.73%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -9.84%E -2.40%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-09 10:10
Tipico (DE)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.97%EV -3.14%E -0.603%K -0.747%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.29%EV -7.96%E -5.13%K -14.47%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -5.44%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 10:05
Bovada🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.35%EV -5.00%E -0.980%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.62%EV -6.77%E -4.31%K -11.88%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -6.54%E -1.54%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 10:09
Marathon Bet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.31%EV -5.00%E -0.980%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.47%EV -6.77%E -4.31%K -11.88%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV -7.64%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 10:00
Coolbet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.40%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV -3.24%E -0.737%K -0.954%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 09:49
Coral🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.64%EV -4.39%E -2.73%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -7.64%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 09:35
BetMGM🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.64%EV -4.39%E -2.73%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -7.64%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 09:33
Codere (IT)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.84%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.25%EV -5.58%E -3.51%K -9.46%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -5.44%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-09 10:00
Unibet (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.55%EV -6.18%E -3.91%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.63%EV -4.34%E -0.998%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 10:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -7.64%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 09:35
Unibet (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.47%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -9.84%E -2.40%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 10:10
Casumo🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.47%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -9.84%E -2.40%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 10:10
betPARX🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.47%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -9.84%E -2.40%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 10:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.40%EV -6.77%E -4.31%K -11.88%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -6.54%E -1.54%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 09:50
PlayUp🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.45%EV -6.18%E -3.91%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -12.04%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 09:55
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -10.93%E -7.28%K -21.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -12.04%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-09 09:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -10.93%E -7.28%K -21.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -12.04%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-09 10:00
Betsson🎯4.95I 20.20%NM 19.21%EV -7.79%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.68%EV -3.80%E -2.35%K -6.13%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11%EV -5.44%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 09:54
NordicBet🎯4.95I 20.20%NM 19.21%EV -7.79%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.68%EV -3.80%E -2.35%K -6.13%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11%EV -5.44%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 09:55
Betr (AU)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.32%EV -8.73%E -1.78%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.17%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.51%EV -3.24%E -0.737%K -0.954%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-09 09:50
Unibet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.77%EV -8.73%E -1.78%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.23%EV -6.18%E -3.91%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -12.04%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-09 10:10
Betclic (FR)🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 18.68%EV -9.66%E -1.99%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -9.15%E -5.98%K -17.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.10%EV -9.84%E -2.40%K -3.17%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-09 10:09
William Hill🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.12%EV -10.59%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.35%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -14.24%E -3.65%K -4.91%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 10:10
888sport (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.12%EV -10.59%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.35%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -14.24%E -3.65%K -4.91%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 10:10
888sport🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.12%EV -10.59%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.35%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -14.24%E -3.65%K -4.91%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 10:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.12%EV -10.59%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.35%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -14.24%E -3.65%K -4.91%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 10:10
BetRivers🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.91%EV -10.59%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.82%EV -6.77%E -4.31%K -11.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.27%EV -14.24%E -3.65%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-09 09:44
TABtouch🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.84%EV -10.59%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.97%EV -7.36%E -4.72%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -14.24%E -3.65%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-09 10:10
Sky Bet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.63%EV -10.59%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.44%EV -9.15%E -5.98%K -17.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -14.24%E -3.65%K -4.91%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-09 10:05
NetBet (FR)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.47%EV -10.59%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 59.91%EV -12.11%E -8.19%K -25.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV -9.84%E -2.40%K -3.17%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-09 10:08
Bet Right🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.32%EV -11.52%E -2.43%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.83%EV -7.36%E -4.72%K -13.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -7.64%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 09:50
Unibet (FR)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.98%EV -11.52%E -2.43%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 59.30%EV -9.74%E -6.41%K -18.73%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.72%EV -8.74%E -2.11%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-09 10:00
LiveScore Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.87%EV -11.52%E -2.43%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.84%EV -7.96%E -5.13%K -14.47%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.29%EV -15.34%E -3.98%K -5.38%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 10:10
Virgin Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.87%EV -11.52%E -2.43%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.84%EV -7.96%E -5.13%K -14.47%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.29%EV -15.34%E -3.98%K -5.38%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 10:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.87%EV -11.52%E -2.43%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.84%EV -7.96%E -5.13%K -14.47%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.29%EV -15.34%E -3.98%K -5.38%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 10:10
DraftKings🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.16%EV -12.45%E -2.65%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.73%EV -0.832%E -0.498%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.11%EV -9.84%E -2.40%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-09 09:40
PMU (FR)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 18.84%EV -12.45%E -2.65%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.86%EV -9.15%E -5.98%K -17.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.30%EV -16.44%E -4.33%K -5.87%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-09 10:10
betfred_uk🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -14.31%E -3.11%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -6.77%E -4.31%K -11.88%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -7.64%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-09 09:50
Winamax (DE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.78%EV -14.31%E -3.11%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.07%EV -8.55%E -5.55%K -15.84%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.16%EV -5.44%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-09 10:00
Winamax (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.03%EV -16.18%E -3.59%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.52%EV -8.55%E -5.55%K -15.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.46%EV -7.64%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-09 09:59
BoyleSports🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -21.76%E -5.18%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.15%EV -4.99%E -3.12%K -8.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -12.04%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-09 10:09
BetUS🎯⚠ inverosímil1.53I 65.36%NM 59.80%EV -71.50%E -46.73%K -134.91%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV +190.97%E +38.97%K +48.97%G +93.51%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.53%EV -6.54%E -1.54%K -2.01%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 10:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.80I 17.24%NM 17.17%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.71%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.13%0.4%2026-08-09 10:10
Matchbook5.80I 17.24%NM 17.17%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.71%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.13%0.4%2026-08-09 10:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.80I 17.24%NM 17.10%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.85%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.04%0.8%2026-08-09 10:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.80I 17.24%NM 17.10%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.85%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.04%0.8%2026-08-09 10:10
Smarkets5.70I 17.54%NM 17.35%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.67%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.98%1.1%2026-08-09 10:00
Kalshi5.56I 17.99%NM 17.62%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.85%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.53%2.1%2026-08-09 09:50