Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

SC Cambuur v NEC Nijmegen

Inicio: 2026-09-12 19:00 UTC

Final: SC Cambuur 3–0 NEC Nijmegen

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

SC Cambuur (Local)

Predicción 19.76%5.06momio equitativo
EV +4.71%
Ventaja +0.889%
Kelly +1.10%
Crecimiento +0.052%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.93%19.74%19.82%21.21%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.204.774.755.3023.81%20.98%21.05%18.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

NEC Nijmegen (Visitante)

Predicción 59.25%1.69momio equitativo
EV -2.23%
Ventaja -1.35%
Kelly -3.44%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
57.59%59.21%59.21%61.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.501.571.571.6566.67%63.79%63.69%60.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 20.99%4.76momio equitativo
EV +1.18%
Ventaja +0.245%
Kelly +0.309%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.82

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.88%21.05%20.97%22.68%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.414.434.8225.00%22.70%22.60%20.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: SC Cambuur (Local): 19.76%; NEC Nijmegen (Visitante): 59.25%; Empate: 20.99%. Para SC Cambuur (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.06. 5 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.30, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.71%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 18.25%EV +4.71%E +0.889%K +1.10%G +0.052%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.60%EV -6.97%E -4.44%K -12.24%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.15%EV +0.760%E +0.158%K +0.200%G +0.002%3.4%2026-09-12 18:20
Svenska Spel🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 18.25%EV +4.71%E +0.889%K +1.10%G +0.052%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.60%EV -6.97%E -4.44%K -12.24%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.15%EV +0.760%E +0.158%K +0.200%G +0.002%3.4%2026-09-12 18:20
Unibet (NL)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 18.18%EV +4.71%E +0.889%K +1.10%G +0.052%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.75%EV -7.57%E -4.85%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.07%EV +0.760%E +0.158%K +0.200%G +0.002%3.8%2026-09-12 18:20
Tipico (DE)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV +2.73%E +0.526%K +0.651%G +0.018%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.35%EV -9.94%E -6.54%K -19.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.72%EV -5.54%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 18:50
Grosvenor🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.52%EV +0.758%E +0.149%K +0.185%G +0.001%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.94%EV -8.16%E -5.26%K -14.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -3.44%E -0.748%K -0.955%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-12 18:20
Coolbet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10%EV -1.22%E -0.243%K -0.304%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.68%EV -5.20%E -3.25%K -8.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.22%EV -5.54%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-12 15:00
betano_uk🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10%EV -1.22%E -0.243%K -0.304%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.68%EV -5.20%E -3.25%K -8.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.22%EV -5.54%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-12 18:45
Bet Victor🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10%EV -1.22%E -0.243%K -0.304%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.68%EV -5.20%E -3.25%K -8.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.22%EV -5.54%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-12 18:45
Unibet (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.66%EV -1.22%E -0.243%K -0.304%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.60%EV -8.75%E -5.68%K -16.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -5.54%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 18:20
Casumo🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.66%EV -1.22%E -0.243%K -0.304%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.60%EV -8.75%E -5.68%K -16.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -5.54%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 18:20
betPARX🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.66%EV -1.22%E -0.243%K -0.304%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.60%EV -8.75%E -5.68%K -16.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -5.54%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 18:20
FanDuel🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -1.22%E -0.243%K -0.304%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.47%EV -9.34%E -6.11%K -17.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.03%EV -7.64%E -1.74%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-12 18:35
Pinnacle🎯4.97I 20.12%NM 19.42%EV -1.81%E -0.364%K -0.456%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.59%EV -4.01%E -2.48%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.99%EV -3.44%E -0.748%K -0.955%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-12 18:56
DraftKings🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.34%EV -3.19%E -0.652%K -0.819%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.60%EV -5.79%E -3.64%K -9.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.06%EV -5.54%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-12 18:35
NordicBet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV -3.19%E -0.652%K -0.819%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.11%EV -4.01%E -2.48%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.68%EV -12.88%E -3.10%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 18:56
Betsson🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV -3.19%E -0.652%K -0.819%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.11%EV -4.01%E -2.48%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.68%EV -12.88%E -3.10%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 18:56
SportsBet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.10%EV -3.19%E -0.652%K -0.819%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.62%EV -6.97%E -4.44%K -12.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -7.64%E -1.74%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-12 18:35
Unibet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.81%EV -3.19%E -0.652%K -0.819%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.24%EV -9.34%E -6.11%K -17.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -7.64%E -1.74%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-12 18:20
LowVig.ag🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.67%EV -4.18%E -0.862%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.26%EV -4.60%E -2.86%K -7.55%G +0.000%4.53I 22.08%NM 21.06%EV -4.91%E -1.08%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-12 18:41
BetOnline.ag🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.67%EV -4.18%E -0.862%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.26%EV -4.60%E -2.86%K -7.55%G +0.000%4.53I 22.08%NM 21.06%EV -4.91%E -1.08%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-12 18:40
BetAnything🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.67%EV -4.18%E -0.862%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.26%EV -4.60%E -2.86%K -7.55%G +0.000%4.53I 22.08%NM 21.06%EV -4.91%E -1.08%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-12 18:40
Bovada🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.38%EV -4.18%E -0.862%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.49%EV -6.38%E -4.04%K -11.00%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.12%EV -6.59%E -1.48%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 18:49
BetUS🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.38%EV -4.18%E -0.862%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.49%EV -6.38%E -4.04%K -11.00%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.12%EV -6.59%E -1.48%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 18:50
Betr (AU)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -5.17%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.51%EV -6.38%E -4.04%K -11.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -5.54%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-12 15:05
BetRivers🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.93%EV -5.17%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 60.18%EV -10.53%E -6.97%K -20.65%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.89%EV -8.69%E -2.00%K -2.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-12 18:20
Unibet (UK)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -6.16%E -1.30%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.09%EV -5.20%E -3.25%K -8.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -5.54%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-12 18:35
Fanatics🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.83%EV -6.16%E -1.30%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.24%EV -5.79%E -3.64%K -9.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -5.54%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 14:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -6.16%E -1.30%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.54%EV -6.97%E -4.44%K -12.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -5.54%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 15:00
PlayUp🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -6.16%E -1.30%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.90%EV -5.20%E -3.25%K -8.66%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -13.93%E -3.40%K -4.50%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-12 18:56
Virgin Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.12%EV -6.16%E -1.30%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 59.76%EV -9.94%E -6.54%K -19.11%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.12%EV -9.74%E -2.26%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-12 18:20
LiveScore Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.12%EV -6.16%E -1.30%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 59.76%EV -9.94%E -6.54%K -19.11%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.12%EV -9.74%E -2.26%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-12 18:20
Paddy Power🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.10%EV -6.16%E -1.30%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.30%EV -9.34%E -6.11%K -17.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.60%EV -11.84%E -2.82%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-12 18:40
PMU (FR)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.05%EV -6.16%E -1.30%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 59.91%EV -10.53%E -6.97%K -20.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.04%EV -9.74%E -2.26%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-12 18:20
Codere (IT)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -7.14%E -1.52%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.96%EV -5.20%E -3.25%K -8.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -5.54%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 18:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.09%EV -7.14%E -1.52%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.81%EV -11.12%E -7.41%K -22.24%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.11%EV -10.79%E -2.54%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-12 18:20
Marathon Bet🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 20.05%EV -8.13%E -1.75%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.00%EV -6.38%E -4.04%K -11.00%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.95%EV -6.59%E -1.48%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 18:04
Coral🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -9.12%E -1.98%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.68%EV -2.23%E -1.35%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.63%EV -7.64%E -1.74%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 18:30
BetMGM🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -9.12%E -1.98%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.13%EV -4.01%E -2.48%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -7.64%E -1.74%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -9.12%E -1.98%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.08%EV -4.60%E -2.86%K -7.55%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.59%EV -9.11%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-12 18:30
betfred_uk🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -9.12%E -1.98%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.69%EV -6.97%E -4.44%K -12.24%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.28%EV -9.11%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-12 15:00
Bet Right🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -9.12%E -1.98%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.61%EV -7.57%E -4.85%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.51%EV -10.79%E -2.54%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 15:00
Winamax (DE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.81%EV -9.12%E -1.98%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 59.94%EV -9.94%E -6.54%K -19.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -5.54%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-12 18:35
TABtouch🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.68%EV -9.12%E -1.98%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.77%EV -8.75%E -5.68%K -16.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -11.84%E -2.82%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.60%EV -9.12%E -1.98%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.93%EV -9.34%E -6.11%K -17.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -11.84%E -2.82%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-12 18:45
1xBet🎯4.57I 21.88%NM 20.97%EV -9.71%E -2.13%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.15%EV -4.01%E -2.48%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.82I 20.75%NM 19.88%EV +1.18%E +0.245%K +0.309%G +0.004%4.4%2026-09-12 18:50
Betway🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -11.10%E -2.47%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.20%E -3.25%K -8.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -5.54%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-12 18:45
888sport🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -11.10%E -2.47%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.59%EV -5.20%E -3.25%K -8.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -11.84%E -2.82%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-12 18:40
William Hill🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -11.10%E -2.47%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.59%EV -5.20%E -3.25%K -8.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -11.84%E -2.82%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-12 18:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -11.10%E -2.47%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.59%EV -5.20%E -3.25%K -8.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -11.84%E -2.82%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-12 18:40
888sport (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -11.10%E -2.47%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.59%EV -5.20%E -3.25%K -8.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -11.84%E -2.82%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-12 18:40
Winamax (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -11.10%E -2.47%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.00%EV -11.12%E -7.41%K -22.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -5.54%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 18:35
Unibet (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.86%EV -11.10%E -2.47%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.59%EV -11.12%E -7.41%K -22.24%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.55%EV -8.69%E -2.00%K -2.59%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-12 18:35
Sky Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.74%EV -11.10%E -2.47%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.06%EV -9.34%E -6.11%K -17.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.21%EV -16.03%E -4.01%K -5.34%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-12 18:40
Betclic (FR)🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 20.07%EV -12.08%E -2.72%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 59.15%EV -10.53%E -6.97%K -20.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.77%EV -9.74%E -2.26%K -2.95%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-12 18:35
NetBet (FR)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.69%EV -15.05%E -3.50%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.14%EV -9.34%E -6.11%K -17.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.18%EV -11.84%E -2.82%K -3.70%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-12 18:56
BoyleSports🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -17.02%E -4.05%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.22%EV -9.34%E -6.11%K -17.63%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.57%EV -9.11%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-12 18:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.30I 18.87%NM 18.80%1.66I 60.24%NM 60.01%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.19%0.4%2026-09-12 18:56
Matchbook◎5.30I 18.87%NM 18.80%1.66I 60.24%NM 60.01%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.19%0.4%2026-09-12 18:56
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.30I 18.87%NM 18.73%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.15%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.12%0.8%2026-09-12 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.30I 18.87%NM 18.73%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.15%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.12%0.8%2026-09-12 18:56
Smarkets◎5.20I 19.23%NM 18.95%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.08%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.97%1.5%2026-09-12 18:56
Kalshi◎5.26I 19.01%NM 18.65%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55%2.0%2026-09-12 18:56