Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

PSV Eindhoven v Fortuna Sittard

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 18:00 UTC

Final: PSV Eindhoven 2–2 Fortuna Sittard

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

PSV Eindhoven (Local)

Prediction 81.51%1.23fair odd
EV -2.18%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -10.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.07%81.49%81.55%84.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.141.141.2092.59%87.57%87.72%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fortuna Sittard (Visit)

Prediction 7.18%13.93fair odd
EV +22.02%
Edge +1.30%
Kelly +1.38%
Growth +0.303%

assuming max odds 17.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.73%7.19%7.19%9.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5013.3713.0017.0010.53%7.48%7.69%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.31%8.84fair odd
EV +13.09%
Edge +1.31%
Kelly +1.45%
Growth +0.190%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.32%11.32%11.26%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.248.0010.0014.29%12.13%12.50%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: PSV Eindhoven (Local): 81.51%; Fortuna Sittard (Visit): 7.18%; Draw: 11.31%. For Fortuna Sittard (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.93. 19 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 17.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +22.02%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 84.01%EV -5.44%E -4.69%K -34.03%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.73%EV +22.02%E +1.30%K +1.38%G +0.303%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.26%EV +7.43%E +0.782%K +0.874%G +0.065%2.6%2026-08-08 17:34
Svenska Spel🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 84.01%EV -5.44%E -4.69%K -34.03%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.73%EV +22.02%E +1.30%K +1.38%G +0.303%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.26%EV +7.43%E +0.782%K +0.874%G +0.065%2.6%2026-08-08 17:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 84.01%EV -5.44%E -4.69%K -34.03%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.73%EV +22.02%E +1.30%K +1.38%G +0.303%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.26%EV +7.43%E +0.782%K +0.874%G +0.065%2.6%2026-08-08 17:35
Betsson🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.22%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.23%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.76%EV +18.43%E +1.12%K +1.19%G +0.219%7.30I 13.70%NM 13.02%EV -17.45%E -2.39%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-08 17:39
NordicBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.22%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.23%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.76%EV +18.43%E +1.12%K +1.19%G +0.219%7.30I 13.70%NM 13.02%EV -17.45%E -2.39%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-08 17:40
Coolbet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.39%EV -5.44%E -4.69%K -34.03%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +7.67%E +0.511%K +0.548%G +0.042%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.24%EV -3.88%E -0.456%K -0.517%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-08 17:40
Fanatics🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.15%EV -7.07%E -6.21%K -50.53%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV +7.67%E +0.511%K +0.548%G +0.042%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.53%EV +1.78%E +0.198%K +0.222%G +0.004%5.5%2026-08-08 17:40
Grosvenor🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.15%EV -7.07%E -6.21%K -50.53%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV +7.67%E +0.511%K +0.548%G +0.042%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.53%EV +1.78%E +0.198%K +0.222%G +0.004%5.5%2026-08-08 17:35
Bet Victor🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.15%EV -7.07%E -6.21%K -50.53%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV +7.67%E +0.511%K +0.548%G +0.042%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.53%EV +1.78%E +0.198%K +0.222%G +0.004%5.5%2026-08-08 17:49
betano_uk🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.15%EV -7.07%E -6.21%K -50.53%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV +7.67%E +0.511%K +0.548%G +0.042%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.53%EV +1.78%E +0.198%K +0.222%G +0.004%5.5%2026-08-08 17:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.76%EV -7.89%E -6.98%K -60.69%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV +7.67%E +0.511%K +0.548%G +0.042%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -3.88%E -0.456%K -0.517%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 17:34
Casumo🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.76%EV -7.89%E -6.98%K -60.69%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV +7.67%E +0.511%K +0.548%G +0.042%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -3.88%E -0.456%K -0.517%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 17:34
betPARX🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.76%EV -7.89%E -6.98%K -60.69%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV +7.67%E +0.511%K +0.548%G +0.042%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -3.88%E -0.456%K -0.517%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 17:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.40%EV -8.70%E -7.77%K -72.54%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV +7.67%E +0.511%K +0.548%G +0.042%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +1.78%E +0.198%K +0.222%G +0.004%7.1%2026-08-08 17:54
PlayUp🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.45%EV -5.44%E -4.69%K -34.03%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV +7.67%E +0.511%K +0.548%G +0.042%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -20.84%E -2.98%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 17:40
SportsBet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.15%EV -8.70%E -7.77%K -72.54%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV +7.67%E +0.511%K +0.548%G +0.042%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.64%EV -1.05%E -0.120%K -0.135%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 17:24
FanDuel🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.46%EV -9.52%E -8.58%K -86.55%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV +7.67%E +0.511%K +0.548%G +0.042%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-08 17:23
Betr (AU)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.86%EV -6.26%E -5.44%K -41.73%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.72%EV +0.490%E +0.035%K +0.038%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.41%EV -6.70%E -0.813%K -0.925%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 15:49
Unibet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.40%EV -7.89%E -6.98%K -60.69%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.65%EV +0.490%E +0.035%K +0.038%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -3.88%E -0.456%K -0.517%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 17:34
Pinnacle🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.83%EV -6.26%E -5.44%K -41.73%G +0.000%13.92I 7.18%NM 6.84%EV -0.084%E -0.006%K -0.007%G +0.000%9.22I 10.85%NM 10.33%EV +4.27%E +0.463%K +0.519%G +0.022%5.0%2026-08-08 17:45
1xBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.81%EV -2.18%E -1.82%K -10.92%G +0.000%13.80I 7.25%NM 7.03%EV -0.945%E -0.069%K -0.074%G +0.000%7.97I 12.55%NM 12.17%EV -9.87%E -1.24%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-08 17:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.96%EV -7.07%E -6.21%K -50.53%G +0.000%13.25I 7.55%NM 7.05%EV -4.89%E -0.369%K -0.399%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -3.88%E -0.456%K -0.517%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 17:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.89%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.23%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-08 17:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.48%EV -5.44%E -4.69%K -34.03%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.25%EV -5.01%E -0.596%K -0.677%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 17:39
Bovada🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.10%EV -7.07%E -6.21%K -50.53%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.20%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.70%EV -1.05%E -0.120%K -0.135%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 17:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.15%EV -6.26%E -5.44%K -41.73%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.18%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 15:49
betfred_uk🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.67%EV -7.07%E -6.21%K -50.53%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -15.18%E -2.02%K -2.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 17:39
Bet Right🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.67%EV -7.07%E -6.21%K -50.53%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -15.18%E -2.02%K -2.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 15:50
BetRivers🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.56%EV -8.70%E -7.77%K -72.54%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.03%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-08 17:35
TABtouch🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.56%EV -8.70%E -7.77%K -72.54%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.03%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-08 17:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.69%EV -9.52%E -8.58%K -86.55%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.33%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-08 17:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.69%EV -9.52%E -8.58%K -86.55%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.33%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-08 17:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.69%EV -9.52%E -8.58%K -86.55%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.33%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-08 17:34
Paddy Power🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.83%EV -10.34%E -9.40%K -103.35%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.92%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.25%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 17:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.83%EV -10.34%E -9.40%K -103.35%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.92%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.25%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 17:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 81.96%EV -11.15%E -10.23%K -123.89%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.87%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.17%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 17:35
BetMGM🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 81.35%EV -3.81%E -3.23%K -21.19%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.68%EV -10.28%E -0.822%K -0.894%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.97%EV -1.05%E -0.120%K -0.135%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-08 17:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 81.87%EV -11.97%E -11.08%K -149.57%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.07%EV -10.28%E -0.822%K -0.894%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.05%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-08 17:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.91%EV -8.70%E -7.77%K -72.54%G +0.000%12.25I 8.16%NM 7.40%EV -12.07%E -0.985%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.69%EV -12.36%E -1.59%K -1.83%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 17:39
Coral🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.83%EV -3.81%E -3.23%K -21.19%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.95%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.22%EV -3.88%E -0.456%K -0.517%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 17:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.96%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.23%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.14%EV -3.88%E -0.456%K -0.517%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 14:20
DraftKings🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.96%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.23%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.14%EV -3.88%E -0.456%K -0.517%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 17:54
Betway🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.73%EV -6.26%E -5.44%K -41.73%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV +1.78%E +0.198%K +0.222%G +0.004%6.4%2026-08-08 17:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -5.44%E -4.69%K -34.03%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 17:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -5.44%E -4.69%K -34.03%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 17:54
BetAnything🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -5.44%E -4.69%K -34.03%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 17:54
William Hill🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.78%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.23%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -15.18%E -2.02%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.78%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.23%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -15.18%E -2.02%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 17:50
888sport🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.78%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.23%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -15.18%E -2.02%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 17:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.78%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.23%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -15.18%E -2.02%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 17:49
Sky Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 80.75%EV -10.34%E -9.40%K -103.35%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.40%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.84%EV -15.18%E -2.02%K -2.34%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-08 17:25
BoyleSports🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.50%EV -6.26%E -5.44%K -41.73%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.31%EV -21.04%E -1.91%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -15.18%E -2.02%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 17:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 80.07%EV -9.52%E -8.58%K -86.55%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.08%EV -21.04%E -1.91%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -15.18%E -2.02%K -2.34%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 17:55
BetUS🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.79%EV -7.07%E -6.21%K -50.53%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -24.63%E -2.35%K -2.59%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV +13.09%E +1.31%K +1.45%G +0.190%7.2%2026-08-08 17:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.93%EV -7.07%E -6.21%K -50.53%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.68%EV -24.63%E -2.35%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.39%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-08 17:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 79.07%EV -7.89%E -6.98%K -60.69%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -31.81%E -3.35%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.53%EV -12.36%E -1.59%K -1.83%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 17:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.17I 85.47%NM 84.79%19.50I 5.13%NM 5.09%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.12%0.8%2026-08-08 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.17I 85.47%NM 84.79%19.50I 5.13%NM 5.09%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.12%0.8%2026-08-08 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.17I 85.47%NM 84.79%19.50I 5.13%NM 5.09%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.12%0.8%2026-08-08 17:50
Matchbook1.17I 85.47%NM 84.68%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.21%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.11%0.9%2026-08-08 17:55
Smarkets1.17I 85.47%NM 84.55%18.48I 5.41%NM 5.35%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.09%1.1%2026-08-08 17:55
Kalshi1.16I 86.21%NM 84.35%16.67I 6.00%NM 5.87%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.78%2.2%2026-08-08 17:30

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