Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

PSV Eindhoven v Fortuna Sittard

Inicio: 2026-08-08 18:00 UTC

Final: PSV Eindhoven 2–2 Fortuna Sittard

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

PSV Eindhoven (Local)

Predicción 81.51%1.23momio equitativo
EV -2.18%
Ventaja -1.82%
Kelly -10.92%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
79.07%81.49%81.55%84.01%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.081.141.141.2092.59%87.57%87.72%83.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Fortuna Sittard (Visitante)

Predicción 7.18%13.93momio equitativo
EV +22.02%
Ventaja +1.30%
Kelly +1.38%
Crecimiento +0.303%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 17.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
5.73%7.19%7.19%9.40%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
9.5013.3713.0017.0010.53%7.48%7.69%5.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 11.31%8.84momio equitativo
EV +13.09%
Ventaja +1.31%
Kelly +1.45%
Crecimiento +0.190%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 10.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
9.32%11.32%11.26%13.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
7.008.248.0010.0014.29%12.13%12.50%10.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: PSV Eindhoven (Local): 81.51%; Fortuna Sittard (Visitante): 7.18%; Empate: 11.31%. Para Fortuna Sittard (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 13.93. 19 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 17.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +22.02%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 84.01%EV -5.44%E -4.69%K -34.03%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.73%EV +22.02%E +1.30%K +1.38%G +0.303%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.26%EV +7.43%E +0.782%K +0.874%G +0.065%2.6%2026-08-08 17:34
Svenska Spel🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 84.01%EV -5.44%E -4.69%K -34.03%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.73%EV +22.02%E +1.30%K +1.38%G +0.303%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.26%EV +7.43%E +0.782%K +0.874%G +0.065%2.6%2026-08-08 17:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 84.01%EV -5.44%E -4.69%K -34.03%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.73%EV +22.02%E +1.30%K +1.38%G +0.303%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.26%EV +7.43%E +0.782%K +0.874%G +0.065%2.6%2026-08-08 17:35
Betsson🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.22%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.23%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.76%EV +18.43%E +1.12%K +1.19%G +0.219%7.30I 13.70%NM 13.02%EV -17.45%E -2.39%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-08 17:39
NordicBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.22%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.23%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.76%EV +18.43%E +1.12%K +1.19%G +0.219%7.30I 13.70%NM 13.02%EV -17.45%E -2.39%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-08 17:40
Coolbet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.39%EV -5.44%E -4.69%K -34.03%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +7.67%E +0.511%K +0.548%G +0.042%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.24%EV -3.88%E -0.456%K -0.517%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-08 17:40
Fanatics🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.15%EV -7.07%E -6.21%K -50.53%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV +7.67%E +0.511%K +0.548%G +0.042%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.53%EV +1.78%E +0.198%K +0.222%G +0.004%5.5%2026-08-08 17:40
Grosvenor🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.15%EV -7.07%E -6.21%K -50.53%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV +7.67%E +0.511%K +0.548%G +0.042%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.53%EV +1.78%E +0.198%K +0.222%G +0.004%5.5%2026-08-08 17:35
Bet Victor🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.15%EV -7.07%E -6.21%K -50.53%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV +7.67%E +0.511%K +0.548%G +0.042%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.53%EV +1.78%E +0.198%K +0.222%G +0.004%5.5%2026-08-08 17:49
betano_uk🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.15%EV -7.07%E -6.21%K -50.53%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV +7.67%E +0.511%K +0.548%G +0.042%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.53%EV +1.78%E +0.198%K +0.222%G +0.004%5.5%2026-08-08 17:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.76%EV -7.89%E -6.98%K -60.69%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV +7.67%E +0.511%K +0.548%G +0.042%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -3.88%E -0.456%K -0.517%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 17:34
Casumo🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.76%EV -7.89%E -6.98%K -60.69%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV +7.67%E +0.511%K +0.548%G +0.042%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -3.88%E -0.456%K -0.517%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 17:34
betPARX🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.76%EV -7.89%E -6.98%K -60.69%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV +7.67%E +0.511%K +0.548%G +0.042%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -3.88%E -0.456%K -0.517%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 17:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.40%EV -8.70%E -7.77%K -72.54%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV +7.67%E +0.511%K +0.548%G +0.042%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +1.78%E +0.198%K +0.222%G +0.004%7.1%2026-08-08 17:54
PlayUp🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.45%EV -5.44%E -4.69%K -34.03%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV +7.67%E +0.511%K +0.548%G +0.042%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -20.84%E -2.98%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 17:40
SportsBet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.15%EV -8.70%E -7.77%K -72.54%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV +7.67%E +0.511%K +0.548%G +0.042%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.64%EV -1.05%E -0.120%K -0.135%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 17:24
FanDuel🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.46%EV -9.52%E -8.58%K -86.55%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV +7.67%E +0.511%K +0.548%G +0.042%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-08 17:23
Betr (AU)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.86%EV -6.26%E -5.44%K -41.73%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.72%EV +0.490%E +0.035%K +0.038%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.41%EV -6.70%E -0.813%K -0.925%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 15:49
Unibet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.40%EV -7.89%E -6.98%K -60.69%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.65%EV +0.490%E +0.035%K +0.038%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -3.88%E -0.456%K -0.517%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 17:34
Pinnacle🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.83%EV -6.26%E -5.44%K -41.73%G +0.000%13.92I 7.18%NM 6.84%EV -0.084%E -0.006%K -0.007%G +0.000%9.22I 10.85%NM 10.33%EV +4.27%E +0.463%K +0.519%G +0.022%5.0%2026-08-08 17:45
1xBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.81%EV -2.18%E -1.82%K -10.92%G +0.000%13.80I 7.25%NM 7.03%EV -0.945%E -0.069%K -0.074%G +0.000%7.97I 12.55%NM 12.17%EV -9.87%E -1.24%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-08 17:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.96%EV -7.07%E -6.21%K -50.53%G +0.000%13.25I 7.55%NM 7.05%EV -4.89%E -0.369%K -0.399%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -3.88%E -0.456%K -0.517%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 17:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.89%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.23%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-08 17:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.48%EV -5.44%E -4.69%K -34.03%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.25%EV -5.01%E -0.596%K -0.677%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 17:39
Bovada🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.10%EV -7.07%E -6.21%K -50.53%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.20%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.70%EV -1.05%E -0.120%K -0.135%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 17:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.15%EV -6.26%E -5.44%K -41.73%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.18%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 15:49
betfred_uk🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.67%EV -7.07%E -6.21%K -50.53%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -15.18%E -2.02%K -2.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 17:39
Bet Right🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.67%EV -7.07%E -6.21%K -50.53%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -15.18%E -2.02%K -2.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 15:50
BetRivers🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.56%EV -8.70%E -7.77%K -72.54%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.03%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-08 17:35
TABtouch🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.56%EV -8.70%E -7.77%K -72.54%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.03%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-08 17:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.69%EV -9.52%E -8.58%K -86.55%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.33%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-08 17:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.69%EV -9.52%E -8.58%K -86.55%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.33%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-08 17:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.69%EV -9.52%E -8.58%K -86.55%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.33%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-08 17:34
Paddy Power🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.83%EV -10.34%E -9.40%K -103.35%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.92%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.25%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 17:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.83%EV -10.34%E -9.40%K -103.35%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.92%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.25%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 17:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 81.96%EV -11.15%E -10.23%K -123.89%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.87%EV -6.69%E -0.514%K -0.557%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.17%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 17:35
BetMGM🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 81.35%EV -3.81%E -3.23%K -21.19%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.68%EV -10.28%E -0.822%K -0.894%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.97%EV -1.05%E -0.120%K -0.135%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-08 17:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 81.87%EV -11.97%E -11.08%K -149.57%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.07%EV -10.28%E -0.822%K -0.894%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.05%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-08 17:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.91%EV -8.70%E -7.77%K -72.54%G +0.000%12.25I 8.16%NM 7.40%EV -12.07%E -0.985%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.69%EV -12.36%E -1.59%K -1.83%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 17:39
Coral🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.83%EV -3.81%E -3.23%K -21.19%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.95%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.22%EV -3.88%E -0.456%K -0.517%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 17:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.96%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.23%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.14%EV -3.88%E -0.456%K -0.517%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 14:20
DraftKings🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.96%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.23%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.14%EV -3.88%E -0.456%K -0.517%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 17:54
Betway🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.73%EV -6.26%E -5.44%K -41.73%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV +1.78%E +0.198%K +0.222%G +0.004%6.4%2026-08-08 17:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -5.44%E -4.69%K -34.03%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 17:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -5.44%E -4.69%K -34.03%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 17:54
BetAnything🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -5.44%E -4.69%K -34.03%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 17:54
William Hill🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.78%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.23%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -15.18%E -2.02%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.78%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.23%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -15.18%E -2.02%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 17:50
888sport🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.78%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.23%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -15.18%E -2.02%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 17:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.78%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.23%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -15.18%E -2.02%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 17:49
Sky Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 80.75%EV -10.34%E -9.40%K -103.35%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.40%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.84%EV -15.18%E -2.02%K -2.34%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-08 17:25
BoyleSports🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.50%EV -6.26%E -5.44%K -41.73%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.31%EV -21.04%E -1.91%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -15.18%E -2.02%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 17:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 80.07%EV -9.52%E -8.58%K -86.55%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.08%EV -21.04%E -1.91%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -15.18%E -2.02%K -2.34%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 17:55
BetUS🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.79%EV -7.07%E -6.21%K -50.53%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -24.63%E -2.35%K -2.59%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV +13.09%E +1.31%K +1.45%G +0.190%7.2%2026-08-08 17:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.93%EV -7.07%E -6.21%K -50.53%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.68%EV -24.63%E -2.35%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.39%EV -9.53%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-08 17:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 79.07%EV -7.89%E -6.98%K -60.69%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -31.81%E -3.35%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.53%EV -12.36%E -1.59%K -1.83%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 17:54
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.17I 85.47%NM 84.79%19.50I 5.13%NM 5.09%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.12%0.8%2026-08-08 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.17I 85.47%NM 84.79%19.50I 5.13%NM 5.09%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.12%0.8%2026-08-08 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.17I 85.47%NM 84.79%19.50I 5.13%NM 5.09%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.12%0.8%2026-08-08 17:50
Matchbook1.17I 85.47%NM 84.68%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.21%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.11%0.9%2026-08-08 17:55
Smarkets1.17I 85.47%NM 84.55%18.48I 5.41%NM 5.35%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.09%1.1%2026-08-08 17:55
Kalshi1.16I 86.21%NM 84.35%16.67I 6.00%NM 5.87%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.78%2.2%2026-08-08 17:30