The School of Odds

NEC Nijmegen v SC Telstar

2026-08-08 14:30 — Dutch Eredivisie

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis)

Option 1: NEC Nijmegen (Local)

Odds
1.3971.94%Min
1.4668.36%Mean
1.4768.03%Median
1.5066.67%Max
Consensus probabilities
61.89%1.616Min
63.93%1.564Max
63.27%1.581Mean
63.27%1.581Median
63.27%1.581IQM
63.32%1.579Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.50 under the IQM model: 63.27%

EV -5.10%Edge -3.40%Kelly -10.19%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: SC Telstar (Visit)

Odds
5.0020.00%Min
5.5118.15%Mean
5.5018.18%Median
6.0716.47%Max
Consensus probabilities
15.80%6.330Min
17.91%5.583Max
16.13%6.201Mean
16.13%6.201Median
16.13%6.201IQM
16.10%6.210Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 6.07 under the IQM model: 16.13%

EV -2.11%Edge -0.347%Kelly -0.416%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds
4.0524.69%Min
4.5521.99%Mean
4.6021.74%Median
4.8020.83%Max
Consensus probabilities
19.49%5.132Min
21.24%4.708Max
20.60%4.853Mean
20.60%4.853Median
20.60%4.853IQM
20.58%4.860Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 4.80 under the IQM model: 20.60%

EV -1.10%Edge -0.229%Kelly -0.290%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

BookmakerNEC Nijmegen (Local) ▼SC Telstar (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.50I 66.67% NM 63.93%EV -5.10% E -3.40% K -10.19% G +0.000%6.07I 16.47% NM 15.80%EV -2.11% E -0.347% K -0.416% G +0.000%4.73I 21.14% NM 20.27%EV -2.54% E -0.538% K -0.682% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-05 12:24
Betr (AU)1.50I 66.67% NM 62.95%EV -5.10% E -3.40% K -10.19% G +0.000%5.50I 18.18% NM 17.17%EV -11.30% E -2.05% K -2.51% G +0.000%4.75I 21.05% NM 19.88%EV -2.13% E -0.449% K -0.568% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 12:04
SportsBet1.48I 67.57% NM 63.19%EV -6.36% E -4.30% K -13.25% G +0.000%5.40I 18.52% NM 17.32%EV -12.91% E -2.39% K -2.93% G +0.000%4.80I 20.83% NM 19.49%EV -1.10% E -0.229% K -0.290% G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-05 12:05
Codere (IT)1.47I 68.03% NM 62.63%EV -7.00% E -4.76% K -14.88% G +0.000%5.60I 17.86% NM 16.44%EV -9.69% E -1.73% K -2.11% G +0.000%4.40I 22.73% NM 20.93%EV -9.34% E -2.12% K -2.75% G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-05 12:05
Marathon Bet1.46I 68.49% NM 63.90%EV -7.63% E -5.22% K -16.58% G +0.000%5.90I 16.95% NM 15.81%EV -4.85% E -0.822% K -0.989% G +0.000%4.60I 21.74% NM 20.28%EV -5.22% E -1.14% K -1.45% G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-05 12:24
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44% NM 62.19%EV -8.89% E -6.18% K -20.21% G +0.000%5.00I 20.00% NM 17.91%EV -19.36% E -3.87% K -4.84% G +0.000%4.50I 22.22% NM 19.90%EV -7.28% E -1.62% K -2.08% G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-05 12:01
Unibet (FR)1.39I 71.94% NM 61.89%EV -12.06% E -8.67% K -30.91% G +0.000%5.10I 19.61% NM 16.87%EV -17.75% E -3.48% K -4.33% G +0.000%4.05I 24.69% NM 21.24%EV -16.55% E -4.09% K -5.43% G +0.000%16.2%2026-07-05 12:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerNEC Nijmegen (Local)SC Telstar (Visit)DrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.01I 99.01%191.3%2026-07-05 12:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.01I 99.01%191.3%2026-07-05 12:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.01I 99.01%191.3%2026-07-05 12:15