Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

NEC Nijmegen v SC Telstar

Inicio: 2026-08-08 14:30 UTC

Final: NEC Nijmegen 1–2 SC Telstar

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

NEC Nijmegen (Local)

Predicción 64.88%1.54momio equitativo
EV -2.69%
Ventaja -1.79%
Kelly -5.37%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
63.21%64.79%64.94%66.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.351.431.441.5074.07%69.70%69.44%66.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

SC Telstar (Visitante)

Predicción 15.94%6.27momio equitativo
EV +6.02%
Ventaja +0.905%
Kelly +1.06%
Crecimiento +0.064%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.57%15.95%15.96%17.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.005.825.756.6520.00%17.17%17.39%15.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 19.18%5.21momio equitativo
EV +1.67%
Ventaja +0.314%
Kelly +0.387%
Crecimiento +0.006%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.34%19.27%19.10%20.40%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.504.844.865.3022.22%20.67%20.60%18.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: NEC Nijmegen (Local): 64.88%; SC Telstar (Visitante): 15.94%; Empate: 19.18%. Para SC Telstar (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 6.27. 5 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 6.65, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +6.02%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.48%EV -3.98%E -2.69%K -8.30%G +0.000%6.65I 15.04%NM 14.57%EV +6.02%E +0.905%K +1.06%G +0.064%4.86I 20.58%NM 19.94%EV -6.77%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-08 14:23
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.25%EV -6.58%E -4.57%K -14.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.68%EV +3.62%E +0.558%K +0.659%G +0.024%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -4.09%E -0.818%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 14:24
betano_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.25%EV -6.58%E -4.57%K -14.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.68%EV +3.62%E +0.558%K +0.659%G +0.024%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -4.09%E -0.818%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 14:24
Pinnacle🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.08%EV -5.93%E -4.09%K -13.18%G +0.000%6.43I 15.55%NM 14.90%EV +2.51%E +0.390%K +0.462%G +0.012%5.04I 19.84%NM 19.01%EV -3.32%E -0.659%K -0.822%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-08 14:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.57%EV -6.58%E -4.57%K -14.95%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.75%EV +2.03%E +0.317%K +0.376%G +0.008%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.67%EV -7.92%E -1.65%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 14:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 66.11%EV -4.63%E -3.15%K -9.86%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.55%EV -0.362%E -0.058%K -0.069%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.34%EV +1.67%E +0.314%K +0.387%G +0.006%2.9%2026-08-08 14:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 66.11%EV -4.63%E -3.15%K -9.86%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.55%EV -0.362%E -0.058%K -0.069%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.34%EV +1.67%E +0.314%K +0.387%G +0.006%2.9%2026-08-08 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 66.11%EV -4.63%E -3.15%K -9.86%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.55%EV -0.362%E -0.058%K -0.069%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.34%EV +1.67%E +0.314%K +0.387%G +0.006%2.9%2026-08-08 14:20
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.02%EV -7.23%E -5.05%K -16.81%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.10%EV -0.362%E -0.058%K -0.069%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -4.09%E -0.818%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 14:23
BetUS🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.02%EV -7.23%E -5.05%K -16.81%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.10%EV -0.362%E -0.058%K -0.069%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -4.09%E -0.818%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 14:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.11%EV -5.93%E -4.09%K -13.18%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.23%EV -1.16%E -0.187%K -0.223%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.67%EV -7.92%E -1.65%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 14:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.84%EV -7.88%E -5.55%K -18.75%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.08%EV -1.16%E -0.187%K -0.223%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -6.01%E -1.23%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 14:24
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.98%EV -4.63%E -3.15%K -9.86%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -4.35%E -0.725%K -0.869%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10%EV -4.09%E -0.818%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-08 14:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.04%EV -5.93%E -4.09%K -13.18%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV -4.35%E -0.725%K -0.869%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.25%EV -6.01%E -1.23%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 14:25
DraftKings🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.04%EV -5.93%E -4.09%K -13.18%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV -4.35%E -0.725%K -0.869%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.25%EV -6.01%E -1.23%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 14:25
BetAnything🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -6.58%E -4.57%K -14.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -4.35%E -0.725%K -0.869%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -4.09%E -0.818%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-08 14:25
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.84%EV -7.23%E -5.05%K -16.81%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV -4.35%E -0.725%K -0.869%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.46%EV -2.17%E -0.426%K -0.529%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 14:20
SportsBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.19%EV -6.58%E -4.57%K -14.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -4.35%E -0.725%K -0.869%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.16%EV -6.01%E -1.23%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 13:45
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.80%EV -6.58%E -4.57%K -14.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -4.35%E -0.725%K -0.869%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.65%EV -8.88%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 14:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.22%EV -7.23%E -5.05%K -16.81%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -4.35%E -0.725%K -0.869%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.23%EV -6.97%E -1.44%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 14:19
FanDuel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.83%EV -9.17%E -6.55%K -22.94%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.36%EV -4.35%E -0.725%K -0.869%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.81%EV -6.01%E -1.23%K -1.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 13:45
Betsson🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.80%EV -3.34%E -2.24%K -6.81%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 15.98%EV -5.14%E -0.865%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.23%EV -9.84%E -2.09%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-08 14:20
NordicBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.80%EV -3.34%E -2.24%K -6.81%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 15.98%EV -5.14%E -0.865%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.23%EV -9.84%E -2.09%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-08 14:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.25%EV -7.23%E -5.05%K -16.81%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -7.54%E -1.30%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.66%EV -4.09%E -0.818%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 14:20
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.25%EV -7.23%E -5.05%K -16.81%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -7.54%E -1.30%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.66%EV -4.09%E -0.818%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 14:20
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.25%EV -7.23%E -5.05%K -16.81%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -7.54%E -1.30%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.66%EV -4.09%E -0.818%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 14:20
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.76%EV -6.58%E -4.57%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -7.54%E -1.30%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -13.68%E -3.04%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 14:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.38%EV -3.98%E -2.69%K -8.30%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.57%EV -8.33%E -1.45%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.06%EV -4.09%E -0.818%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-08 14:24
Fanatics🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.00%EV -6.58%E -4.57%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.28%EV -8.33%E -1.45%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -4.09%E -0.818%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 14:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.21%EV -5.93%E -4.09%K -13.18%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -8.33%E -1.45%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -8.88%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 14:25
Unibet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.91%EV -7.23%E -5.05%K -16.81%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -8.33%E -1.45%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.94%EV -6.01%E -1.23%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 14:19
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.80%EV -5.93%E -4.09%K -13.18%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.09%EV -8.33%E -1.45%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.11%EV -11.76%E -2.56%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 14:19
Bet Right🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.69%EV -7.88%E -5.55%K -18.75%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.97%EV -8.33%E -1.45%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -8.88%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 13:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.68%EV -6.58%E -4.57%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -8.33%E -1.45%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -13.68%E -3.04%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 14:14
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.68%EV -6.58%E -4.57%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -8.33%E -1.45%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -13.68%E -3.04%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 14:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.68%EV -6.58%E -4.57%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -8.33%E -1.45%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -13.68%E -3.04%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 14:14
NetBet (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 65.61%EV -12.42%E -9.20%K -35.48%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.54%EV -9.13%E -1.60%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.85%EV -9.84%E -2.09%K -2.66%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-08 14:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.00%EV -4.63%E -3.15%K -9.86%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV -10.72%E -1.92%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.20%EV -6.01%E -1.23%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-08 14:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.01%EV -7.88%E -5.55%K -18.75%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.23%EV -10.72%E -1.92%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -11.76%E -2.56%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 14:23
BetRivers🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.86%EV -9.17%E -6.55%K -22.94%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.22%EV -10.72%E -1.92%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.92%EV -7.92%E -1.65%K -2.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 14:04
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.58%EV -2.69%E -1.79%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.34%EV -12.32%E -2.24%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -4.09%E -0.818%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 14:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.89%EV -3.98%E -2.69%K -8.30%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -12.32%E -2.24%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -4.09%E -0.818%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-08 14:24
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.89%EV -3.98%E -2.69%K -8.30%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -12.32%E -2.24%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -4.09%E -0.818%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-08 14:25
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -6.58%E -4.57%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -12.32%E -2.24%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -11.76%E -2.56%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 14:23
TABtouch🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.38%EV -8.53%E -6.05%K -20.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -12.32%E -2.24%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.11%EV -8.88%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 14:19
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.55%EV -9.17%E -6.55%K -22.94%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -12.32%E -2.24%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.02%EV -8.88%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 13:49
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.87%EV -9.17%E -6.55%K -22.94%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.26%EV -12.32%E -2.24%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -13.68%E -3.04%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-08 07:59
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.87%EV -9.17%E -6.55%K -22.94%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.26%EV -12.32%E -2.24%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -13.68%E -3.04%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-08 13:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.21%EV -11.77%E -8.65%K -32.69%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.12%EV -12.32%E -2.24%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.67%EV -8.88%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-08 14:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.22%EV -9.17%E -6.55%K -22.94%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.65%EV -13.91%E -2.58%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.13%EV -9.84%E -2.09%K -2.66%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-08 14:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.22%EV -9.17%E -6.55%K -22.94%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.65%EV -13.91%E -2.58%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.13%EV -9.84%E -2.09%K -2.66%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-08 14:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.22%EV -9.17%E -6.55%K -22.94%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.65%EV -13.91%E -2.58%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.13%EV -9.84%E -2.09%K -2.66%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-08 14:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.55%EV -10.47%E -7.59%K -27.56%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.50%EV -13.91%E -2.58%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.95%EV -9.84%E -2.09%K -2.66%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-08 14:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.55%EV -10.47%E -7.59%K -27.56%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.50%EV -13.91%E -2.58%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.95%EV -9.84%E -2.09%K -2.66%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-08 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.82%EV -7.23%E -5.05%K -16.81%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.55%EV -17.10%E -3.29%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.63%EV -6.01%E -1.23%K -1.54%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-08 14:24
Winamax (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 63.21%EV -8.53%E -6.05%K -20.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -20.29%E -4.06%K -5.07%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.96%EV -9.84%E -2.09%K -2.66%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-08 14:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.51I 66.23%NM 66.12%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.68%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.20%0.2%2026-08-08 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.51I 66.23%NM 66.12%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.68%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.20%0.2%2026-08-08 14:25
Matchbook1.51I 66.23%NM 66.12%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.68%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.20%0.2%2026-08-08 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 66.27%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.62%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.12%0.6%2026-08-08 14:25
Kalshi1.47I 68.03%NM 66.67%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.69%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.63%2.0%2026-08-08 14:00
Smarkets1.49I 67.11%NM 65.58%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.27%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.16%2.3%2026-08-08 14:25