Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.31
assuming max odds 2.95
assuming max odds 4.10
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: NEC Nijmegen (Local): 42.66%; Go Ahead Eagles (Visit): 33.18%; Draw: 24.16%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.14. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.10, with an expected value of -0.929%; they did not produce positive expected value.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.57%EV -1.45%E -0.629%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 33.23%EV -4.12%E -1.43%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.81I 26.25%NM 25.20%EV -7.94%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-20 14:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.68%EV -2.73%E -1.20%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.99%EV -2.13%E -0.723%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.33%EV -3.35%E -0.836%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-09-20 14:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.44%EV -2.73%E -1.20%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.37%EV -3.79%E -1.31%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.19%EV -3.35%E -0.836%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-20 14:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.53%EV -3.59%E -1.59%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.14%EV -3.79%E -1.31%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -4.55%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-20 14:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.53%EV -3.59%E -1.59%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.14%EV -3.79%E -1.31%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -4.55%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-20 14:34 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.53%EV -3.59%E -1.59%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.14%EV -3.79%E -1.31%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -4.55%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-20 14:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.88%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.70%EV -2.13%E -0.723%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.42%EV -4.55%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.88%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.70%EV -2.13%E -0.723%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.42%EV -4.55%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.64%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.08%EV -3.79%E -1.31%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.29%EV -4.55%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-20 14:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.26%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.77%EV -3.35%E -0.836%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-20 14:33 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.26%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.77%EV -3.35%E -0.836%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-20 14:33 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.23%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.76%EV -3.79%E -1.31%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -8.18%E -2.15%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-20 14:39 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.76%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -5.76%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-20 14:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.76%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -5.76%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-20 14:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.76%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -5.76%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-20 14:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.76%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -5.76%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-20 14:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.16%EV -8.77%E -3.19%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -5.76%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-20 14:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.98%EV -4.87%E -2.18%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.05%EV -3.79%E -1.31%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.96%EV -3.35%E -0.836%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-20 14:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.49%EV -4.87%E -2.18%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.90%EV -4.46%E -1.55%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.61%EV -6.97%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.45%EV -5.29%E -2.38%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.07%EV -5.45%E -1.91%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.48%EV -6.97%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-20 14:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.20%EV -5.29%E -2.38%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.46%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -6.97%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-20 14:38 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.06%EV -6.15%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.83%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.11%EV -0.929%E -0.227%K -0.300%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.54%EV -6.15%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -5.45%E -1.91%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -8.18%E -2.15%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.54%EV -6.15%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -5.45%E -1.91%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -8.18%E -2.15%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.54%EV -6.15%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -5.45%E -1.91%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -8.18%E -2.15%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-20 14:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.49%EV -6.15%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 33.03%EV -6.11%E -2.16%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.47%EV -7.69%E -2.01%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 14:31 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -6.15%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -5.45%E -1.91%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -9.39%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-20 14:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -6.15%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.23%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -8.18%E -2.15%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-20 14:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -6.15%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%EV -8.77%E -3.19%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -9.39%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-20 14:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.37%EV -7.00%E -3.21%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -9.39%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.85%EV -7.43%E -3.42%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.29%EV -4.46%E -1.55%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 24.86%EV -9.63%E -2.57%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-20 14:39 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.88%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -3.79%E -1.31%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -3.35%E -0.836%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-20 14:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.63%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.92%EV -5.45%E -1.91%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -3.35%E -0.836%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-20 14:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.38%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -3.35%E -0.836%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-20 14:04 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.51%EV -8.77%E -3.19%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -5.76%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-20 14:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -10.59%E -2.86%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-20 14:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -10.59%E -2.86%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-20 14:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -10.59%E -2.86%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-20 14:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -10.59%E -2.86%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-20 14:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.20%EV -8.77%E -3.19%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%EV -9.39%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-20 14:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.43%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.58%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -11.80%E -3.23%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -13.01%E -3.61%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-20 14:39 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -8.77%E -3.19%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -15.43%E -4.41%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-20 14:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.29%EV -8.71%E -4.07%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.91%EV -8.77%E -3.19%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.80%EV -11.80%E -3.23%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-20 14:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.29%EV -8.71%E -4.07%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.91%EV -8.77%E -3.19%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.80%EV -11.80%E -3.23%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-20 14:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.29%EV -8.71%E -4.07%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.91%EV -8.77%E -3.19%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.80%EV -11.80%E -3.23%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.29%EV -8.71%E -4.07%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.91%EV -8.77%E -3.19%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.80%EV -11.80%E -3.23%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-20 14:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.38%EV -9.56%E -4.51%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.67%EV -8.77%E -3.19%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.96%EV -13.01%E -3.61%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-20 14:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -10.41%E -4.96%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -2.13%E -0.723%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -5.76%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-20 14:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -10.41%E -4.96%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.78%EV -10.43%E -3.86%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -3.35%E -0.836%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-20 14:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -10.41%E -4.96%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.10%EV -12.09%E -4.56%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.88%EV -4.55%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-20 14:19 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.50%EV -10.41%E -4.96%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.05%EV -10.43%E -3.86%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.45%EV -11.80%E -3.23%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-20 14:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.01%EV -11.26%E -5.42%K -10.43%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -10.43%E -3.86%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.86%EV -9.39%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-20 14:21 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.37%EV -12.54%E -6.12%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.93%EV -10.43%E -3.86%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.71%EV -9.39%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-20 14:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.96%EV -12.54%E -6.12%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.87%EV -13.74%E -5.29%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.17%EV -8.18%E -2.15%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-09-20 14:38 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.62% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.87% | 0.5% | 2026-09-20 14:39 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.62% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.87% | 0.5% | 2026-09-20 14:39 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.53% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.70% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77% | 0.9% | 2026-09-20 14:39 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.28% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.98% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74% | 1.1% | 2026-09-20 14:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.28% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.98% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74% | 1.1% | 2026-09-20 14:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.28% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.98% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74% | 1.1% | 2026-09-20 14:39 |