Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

NEC Nijmegen v Go Ahead Eagles

Inicio: 2026-09-20 14:45 UTC

Final: NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Go Ahead Eagles

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

NEC Nijmegen (Local)

Predicción 42.66%2.34momio equitativo
EV -1.45%
Ventaja -0.629%
Kelly -1.11%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.31

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.57%42.76%42.57%44.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.052.192.202.3148.78%45.72%45.45%43.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Go Ahead Eagles (Visitante)

Predicción 33.18%3.01momio equitativo
EV -2.13%
Ventaja -0.723%
Kelly -1.09%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.63%33.14%33.17%34.16%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.602.812.802.9538.46%35.55%35.71%33.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 24.16%4.14momio equitativo
EV -0.929%
Ventaja -0.227%
Kelly -0.300%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.80%24.10%24.26%25.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.503.833.824.1028.57%26.11%26.18%24.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: NEC Nijmegen (Local): 42.66%; Go Ahead Eagles (Visitante): 33.18%; Empate: 24.16%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.14. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 4.10, con un valor esperado de -0.929%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.57%EV -1.45%E -0.629%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.23%EV -4.12%E -1.43%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.20%EV -7.94%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-20 14:34
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.68%EV -2.73%E -1.20%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.99%EV -2.13%E -0.723%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.33%EV -3.35%E -0.836%K -1.12%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-20 14:05
Pinnacle🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.44%EV -2.73%E -1.20%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.37%EV -3.79%E -1.31%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.19%EV -3.35%E -0.836%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-20 14:39
BetOnline.ag🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.53%EV -3.59%E -1.59%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.14%EV -3.79%E -1.31%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -4.55%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-20 14:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.53%EV -3.59%E -1.59%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.14%EV -3.79%E -1.31%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -4.55%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-20 14:34
BetAnything🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.53%EV -3.59%E -1.59%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.14%EV -3.79%E -1.31%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -4.55%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-20 14:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.88%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.70%EV -2.13%E -0.723%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.42%EV -4.55%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-20 14:09
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.88%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.70%EV -2.13%E -0.723%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.42%EV -4.55%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-20 14:09
BetUS🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.64%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.08%EV -3.79%E -1.31%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.29%EV -4.55%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-20 14:39
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.26%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.77%EV -3.35%E -0.836%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-20 14:33
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.26%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.77%EV -3.35%E -0.836%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-20 14:33
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.23%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.76%EV -3.79%E -1.31%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -8.18%E -2.15%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-20 14:39
Codere (IT)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.76%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -5.76%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-20 14:24
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.76%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -5.76%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-20 14:35
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.76%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -5.76%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-20 14:34
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.76%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -5.76%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-20 14:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.16%EV -8.77%E -3.19%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -5.76%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-20 14:35
Coolbet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.98%EV -4.87%E -2.18%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.05%EV -3.79%E -1.31%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.96%EV -3.35%E -0.836%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-20 14:14
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.49%EV -4.87%E -2.18%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.90%EV -4.46%E -1.55%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.61%EV -6.97%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-20 14:09
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.45%EV -5.29%E -2.38%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.07%EV -5.45%E -1.91%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.48%EV -6.97%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-20 14:19
Bovada🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.20%EV -5.29%E -2.38%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.46%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -6.97%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 14:38
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.06%EV -6.15%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.83%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.11%EV -0.929%E -0.227%K -0.300%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-20 14:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.54%EV -6.15%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -5.45%E -1.91%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -8.18%E -2.15%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 14:09
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.54%EV -6.15%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -5.45%E -1.91%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -8.18%E -2.15%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 14:09
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.54%EV -6.15%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -5.45%E -1.91%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -8.18%E -2.15%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 14:10
Betsson🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.49%EV -6.15%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.03%EV -6.11%E -2.16%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.47%EV -7.69%E -2.01%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 14:31
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -6.15%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -5.45%E -1.91%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -9.39%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 14:39
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -6.15%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.23%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -8.18%E -2.15%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 14:34
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -6.15%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%EV -8.77%E -3.19%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -9.39%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-20 14:19
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.37%EV -7.00%E -3.21%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -9.39%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-20 14:09
Marathon Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.85%EV -7.43%E -3.42%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.29%EV -4.46%E -1.55%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.86%EV -9.63%E -2.57%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 14:39
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.88%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -3.79%E -1.31%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -3.35%E -0.836%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-20 14:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.63%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.92%EV -5.45%E -1.91%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -3.35%E -0.836%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 14:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.38%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -3.35%E -0.836%K -1.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 14:04
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.51%EV -8.77%E -3.19%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -5.76%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-20 14:04
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -10.59%E -2.86%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-20 14:24
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -10.59%E -2.86%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-20 14:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -10.59%E -2.86%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-20 14:19
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -10.59%E -2.86%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-20 14:19
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.20%EV -8.77%E -3.19%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%EV -9.39%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-20 14:04
BetRivers🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.43%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.58%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -11.80%E -3.23%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-20 14:09
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -13.01%E -3.61%K -5.00%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 14:39
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -8.77%E -3.19%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -15.43%E -4.41%K -6.17%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-20 14:39
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.29%EV -8.71%E -4.07%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.91%EV -8.77%E -3.19%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.80%EV -11.80%E -3.23%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-20 14:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.29%EV -8.71%E -4.07%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.91%EV -8.77%E -3.19%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.80%EV -11.80%E -3.23%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-20 14:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.29%EV -8.71%E -4.07%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.91%EV -8.77%E -3.19%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.80%EV -11.80%E -3.23%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-20 14:09
TABtouch🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.29%EV -8.71%E -4.07%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.91%EV -8.77%E -3.19%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.80%EV -11.80%E -3.23%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-20 14:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.38%EV -9.56%E -4.51%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.67%EV -8.77%E -3.19%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.96%EV -13.01%E -3.61%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-20 14:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -10.41%E -4.96%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -2.13%E -0.723%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -5.76%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 14:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -10.41%E -4.96%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.78%EV -10.43%E -3.86%K -6.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -3.35%E -0.836%K -1.12%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 14:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -10.41%E -4.96%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.10%EV -12.09%E -4.56%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.88%EV -4.55%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-20 14:19
NetBet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.50%EV -10.41%E -4.96%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.05%EV -10.43%E -3.86%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.45%EV -11.80%E -3.23%K -4.45%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-20 14:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.01%EV -11.26%E -5.42%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -10.43%E -3.86%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.86%EV -9.39%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-20 14:21
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.37%EV -12.54%E -6.12%K -11.95%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.93%EV -10.43%E -3.86%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.71%EV -9.39%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-20 14:19
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.96%EV -12.54%E -6.12%K -11.95%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.87%EV -13.74%E -5.29%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.17%EV -8.18%E -2.15%K -2.92%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-20 14:38
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.62%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.87%0.5%2026-09-20 14:39
Matchbook◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.62%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.87%0.5%2026-09-20 14:39
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.53%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.70%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-09-20 14:39
Smarkets◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.28%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.98%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%1.1%2026-09-20 14:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.28%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.98%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%1.1%2026-09-20 14:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.28%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.98%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%1.1%2026-09-20 14:39