Language:English
NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
NEC Nijmegen (Local)
Prediction 66.77%1.50fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -2.67%
Kelly -8.75%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.31%66.73%66.72%68.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.391.401.4480.65%72.16%71.43%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Fortuna Sittard (Visit)
Prediction 14.55%6.87fair odd
EV +9.14%
Edge +1.22%
Kelly +1.41%
Growth +0.128%
assuming max odds 7.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.87%14.61%14.53%16.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.206.546.507.5019.23%15.29%15.38%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 18.68%5.35fair odd
EV -0.442%
Edge -0.083%
Kelly -0.102%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.95%18.66%18.74%19.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.995.005.3323.26%20.05%20.00%18.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: NEC Nijmegen (Local): 66.77%; Fortuna Sittard (Visit): 14.55%; Draw: 18.68%. For Fortuna Sittard (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.87. 18 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.14%.
Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.93%EV -6.52%E -4.66%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.87%EV +9.14%E +1.22%K +1.41%G +0.128% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.21%EV -1.00%E -0.189%K -0.233%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-02-28 19:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.93%EV -6.52%E -4.66%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.87%EV +9.14%E +1.22%K +1.41%G +0.128% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.21%EV -1.00%E -0.189%K -0.233%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-02-28 19:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.93%EV -6.52%E -4.66%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.87%EV +9.14%E +1.22%K +1.41%G +0.128% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.21%EV -1.00%E -0.189%K -0.233%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-02-28 19:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.05%EV -4.52%E -3.16%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 7.11I 14.06%NM 13.69%EV +3.46%E +0.487%K +0.567%G +0.020% | 5.33I 18.76%NM 18.26%EV -0.442%E -0.083%K -0.102%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-02-28 19:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.26%EV -5.19%E -3.65%K -12.35%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.64%EV +1.86%E +0.266%K +0.310%G +0.006% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10%EV -6.61%E -1.32%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-02-28 18:18 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.52%E -4.66%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.64%EV +1.86%E +0.266%K +0.310%G +0.006% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.18%EV -1.94%E -0.369%K -0.456%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-28 19:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.37%EV -7.86%E -5.69%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +1.86%E +0.266%K +0.310%G +0.006% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.15%EV -2.87%E -0.552%K -0.683%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-28 19:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.37%EV -7.86%E -5.69%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +1.86%E +0.266%K +0.310%G +0.006% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.15%EV -2.87%E -0.552%K -0.683%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-28 19:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -9.19%E -6.76%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV +1.86%E +0.266%K +0.310%G +0.006% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -2.87%E -0.552%K -0.683%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-28 19:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -9.19%E -6.76%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV +1.86%E +0.266%K +0.310%G +0.006% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -2.87%E -0.552%K -0.683%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-28 19:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -9.19%E -6.76%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV +1.86%E +0.266%K +0.310%G +0.006% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -2.87%E -0.552%K -0.683%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-28 19:29 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -9.19%E -6.76%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV +1.86%E +0.266%K +0.310%G +0.006% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.25%EV -4.74%E -0.929%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-28 19:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -9.19%E -6.76%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV +1.86%E +0.266%K +0.310%G +0.006% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.25%EV -4.74%E -0.929%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-28 19:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -9.19%E -6.76%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV +1.86%E +0.266%K +0.310%G +0.006% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.25%EV -4.74%E -0.929%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-28 19:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.94%EV -9.19%E -6.76%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV +1.86%E +0.266%K +0.310%G +0.006% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.86%EV -8.47%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-02-28 19:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.52%EV -10.53%E -7.86%K -30.97%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV +1.86%E +0.266%K +0.310%G +0.006% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -6.61%E -1.32%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-02-28 19:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -11.20%E -8.42%K -33.93%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV +1.86%E +0.266%K +0.310%G +0.006% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -6.61%E -1.32%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-28 19:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -11.20%E -8.42%K -33.93%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV +1.86%E +0.266%K +0.310%G +0.006% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -6.61%E -1.32%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-28 19:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.45%EV -4.52%E -3.16%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 6.82I 14.66%NM 14.14%EV -0.758%E -0.111%K -0.130%G +0.000% | 5.24I 19.08%NM 18.41%EV -2.12%E -0.405%K -0.501%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-02-28 19:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.73%EV -5.19%E -3.65%K -12.35%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.93%EV -1.05%E -0.154%K -0.181%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.34%EV -8.47%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-28 19:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.73%EV -5.19%E -3.65%K -12.35%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.93%EV -1.05%E -0.154%K -0.181%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.34%EV -8.47%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-28 19:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.37%EV -4.52%E -3.16%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.27%EV -1.78%E -0.263%K -0.309%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.35%EV -1.94%E -0.369%K -0.456%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-28 19:34 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.37%EV -4.52%E -3.16%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.27%EV -1.78%E -0.263%K -0.309%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.35%EV -1.94%E -0.369%K -0.456%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-28 19:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.97%EV -6.52%E -4.66%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.89%EV -1.78%E -0.263%K -0.309%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -8.47%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-28 18:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.12%EV -8.53%E -6.22%K -23.04%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.93%EV -2.50%E -0.374%K -0.439%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV -2.87%E -0.552%K -0.683%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-28 19:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.60%EV -7.86%E -5.69%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.92%EV -2.50%E -0.374%K -0.439%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.47%EV -5.67%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-28 19:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.25%EV -3.85%E -2.67%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.68%EV -5.41%E -0.833%K -0.984%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -6.61%E -1.32%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-28 19:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.56%EV -5.19%E -3.65%K -12.35%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.54%EV -5.41%E -0.833%K -0.984%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -6.61%E -1.32%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-28 19:43 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -6.52%E -4.66%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -5.41%E -0.833%K -0.984%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -1.94%E -0.369%K -0.456%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-28 19:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.12%EV -6.52%E -4.66%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -5.41%E -0.833%K -0.984%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.42%EV -4.74%E -0.929%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-28 19:53 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.12%EV -6.52%E -4.66%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -5.41%E -0.833%K -0.984%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.42%EV -4.74%E -0.929%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-28 19:54 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.12%EV -6.52%E -4.66%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -5.41%E -0.833%K -0.984%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.42%EV -4.74%E -0.929%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-28 19:54 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -6.52%E -4.66%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -5.41%E -0.833%K -0.984%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -6.61%E -1.32%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-28 19:34 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.62%EV -6.52%E -4.66%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.35%EV -5.41%E -0.833%K -0.984%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -8.47%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-28 19:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -9.19%E -6.76%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -5.41%E -0.833%K -0.984%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -11.28%E -2.37%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-02-28 19:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 66.66%EV -11.20%E -8.42%K -33.93%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.64%EV -5.41%E -0.833%K -0.984%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.70%EV -15.95%E -3.54%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-02-28 19:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.02%EV -4.52%E -3.16%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.10%EV -9.05%E -1.45%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -6.61%E -1.32%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-28 19:44 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.22%EV -7.86%E -5.69%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.74%EV -9.78%E -1.58%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.04%EV -10.34%E -2.15%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-02-28 19:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -3.85%E -2.67%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -12.69%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -6.61%E -1.32%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-28 19:44 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -3.85%E -2.67%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -12.69%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -6.61%E -1.32%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-28 19:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.76%EV -5.19%E -3.65%K -12.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -12.69%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -6.61%E -1.32%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-28 19:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -6.52%E -4.66%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -12.69%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -6.61%E -1.32%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-28 19:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -6.52%E -4.66%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -12.69%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -10.34%E -2.15%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-02-28 19:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.44%EV -6.52%E -4.66%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -12.69%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -11.28%E -2.37%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-02-28 19:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.44%EV -6.52%E -4.66%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -12.69%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -11.28%E -2.37%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-02-28 19:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.44%EV -6.52%E -4.66%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -12.69%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -11.28%E -2.37%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-02-28 19:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.09%EV -9.19%E -6.76%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -12.69%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.92%EV -11.28%E -2.37%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-02-28 19:33 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -9.19%E -6.76%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -12.69%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -15.95%E -3.54%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-02-28 19:49 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 66.37%EV -12.53%E -9.57%K -40.43%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 14.74%EV -14.15%E -2.40%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 18.90%EV -14.08%E -3.06%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-02-28 19:38 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 66.73%EV -17.21%E -13.88%K -71.69%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 14.02%EV -14.15%E -2.40%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 19.24%EV -19.68%E -4.58%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 20.9% | 2026-02-28 19:49 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.75%EV -9.19%E -6.76%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.42%EV -15.60%E -2.69%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.83%EV -11.28%E -2.37%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-02-28 19:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.67%EV -9.19%E -6.76%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.53%EV -16.33%E -2.84%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.80%EV -11.28%E -2.37%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-02-28 19:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -6.52%E -4.66%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.59%EV -19.97%E -3.63%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -6.61%E -1.32%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-02-28 19:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 64.31%EV -8.53%E -6.22%K -23.04%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 16.94%EV -24.33%E -4.68%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.75%EV -12.21%E -2.60%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-02-28 19:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.90% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.72% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.37% | 0.8% | 2026-02-28 19:54 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.90% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.06% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04% | 0.8% | 2026-02-28 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.67% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.01% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.31% | 1.1% | 2026-02-28 19:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.43% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.32% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.25% | 1.5% | 2026-02-28 19:54 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.82% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.95% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.23% | 1.6% | 2026-02-28 19:54 |