Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Heracles Almelo v Groningen

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 12:30 UTC

Final: Heracles Almelo 1–2 Groningen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Heracles Almelo (Local)

Prediction 19.33%5.17fair odd
EV +12.13%
Edge +2.09%
Kelly +2.53%
Growth +0.307%

assuming max odds 5.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.80%19.30%19.41%20.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.914.905.8023.09%20.37%20.41%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Groningen (Visit)

Prediction 59.75%1.67fair odd
EV -4.40%
Edge -2.75%
Kelly -7.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.14%59.77%59.64%63.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.541.551.6069.93%64.91%64.52%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.92%4.78fair odd
EV +4.59%
Edge +0.918%
Kelly +1.15%
Growth +0.053%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.49%20.93%20.94%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.454.455.0027.78%22.47%22.47%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Heracles Almelo (Local): 19.33%; Groningen (Visit): 59.75%; Draw: 20.92%. For Heracles Almelo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.17. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.13%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.94%EV +12.13%E +2.09%K +2.53%G +0.307%1.55I 64.52%NM 63.40%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.65%EV +4.59%E +0.918%K +1.15%G +0.053%1.8%2026-05-17 07:20
Svenska Spel🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.94%EV +12.13%E +2.09%K +2.53%G +0.307%1.55I 64.52%NM 63.40%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.65%EV +4.59%E +0.918%K +1.15%G +0.053%1.8%2026-05-17 07:20
Unibet (NL)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.80%EV +12.13%E +2.09%K +2.53%G +0.307%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.70%EV -8.58%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.49%EV +4.59%E +0.918%K +1.15%G +0.053%2.6%2026-05-17 07:20
Casumo🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.59%EV +2.47%E +0.465%K +0.574%G +0.014%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.15%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -3.78%E -0.821%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 19:05
Unibet (SE)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.59%EV +2.47%E +0.465%K +0.574%G +0.014%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.15%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -3.78%E -0.821%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 19:05
betPARX🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.59%EV +2.47%E +0.465%K +0.574%G +0.014%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.15%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -3.78%E -0.821%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 19:05
Coolbet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV +1.50%E +0.286%K +0.353%G +0.005%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.83%EV -6.79%E -4.35%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 07:25
Unibet🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.87%EV +0.534%E +0.103%K +0.127%G +0.001%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.94%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -3.78%E -0.821%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 07:20
BetRivers🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.92%EV -1.40%E -0.274%K -0.341%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.76%EV -11.57%E -7.82%K -24.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-16 18:35
Grosvenor🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.84%EV -1.40%E -0.274%K -0.341%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.48%EV -11.57%E -7.82%K -24.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.68%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-17 07:20
TABtouch🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.84%EV -1.40%E -0.274%K -0.341%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.48%EV -11.57%E -7.82%K -24.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.68%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-17 07:20
BetMGM🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.14%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 07:00
Coral🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.14%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 07:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.14%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 06:45
Fanatics🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.14%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 07:00
FanDuel🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.85%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-17 08:08
Bet Victor🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.73%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.64%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.63%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 07:54
Betr (AU)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.16%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 07:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.52%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.91%EV -9.18%E -6.04%K -17.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 07:25
betfred_uk🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%EV -8.58%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.29%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 07:26
Virgin Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 61.58%EV -12.77%E -8.74%K -27.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.43%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 07:20
LiveScore Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 61.58%EV -12.77%E -8.74%K -27.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.43%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 07:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 61.75%EV -13.36%E -9.22%K -29.70%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.35%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-17 07:20
LeoVegas🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 61.75%EV -13.36%E -9.22%K -29.70%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.35%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-17 07:20
1xBet🎯4.93I 20.28%NM 19.42%EV -4.69%E -0.951%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.85%EV -4.40%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.62I 21.65%NM 20.73%EV -3.36%E -0.727%K -0.928%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-17 08:20
Betsson🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.37%EV -5.27%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.31%EV -4.40%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.32%EV -6.92%E -1.55%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 07:50
NordicBet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.37%EV -5.27%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.31%EV -4.40%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.32%EV -6.92%E -1.55%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 07:50
Tipico (DE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.05%EV -5.27%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.21%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-17 08:05
Bet Right🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -5.27%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.80%EV -8.58%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.53%EV -11.10%E -2.61%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-17 07:26
PMU (FR)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.01%EV -5.27%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 61.71%EV -14.56%E -10.18%K -33.86%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.29%EV -9.01%E -2.07%K -2.69%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-16 18:35
Pinnacle🎯4.87I 20.53%NM 19.68%EV -5.85%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.89%EV -4.40%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.69I 21.32%NM 20.43%EV -1.90%E -0.404%K -0.514%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-17 08:16
DraftKings🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -7.20%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.36%EV -5.00%E -3.14%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 08:05
Codere (IT)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -7.20%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.36%EV -5.00%E -3.14%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 07:56
Unibet (UK)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -7.20%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.51%EV -5.60%E -3.54%K -9.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 07:50
Marathon Bet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -7.20%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.82%EV -6.79%E -4.35%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 08:15
LowVig.ag🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -7.20%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.82%EV -6.79%E -4.35%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 07:35
BetOnline.ag🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -7.20%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.82%EV -6.79%E -4.35%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 07:35
Bovada🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.59%EV -4.82%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 08:12
BetUS🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.59%EV -4.82%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 08:15
BetAnything🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.59%EV -4.82%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 08:15
Everygame🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.54%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 07:49
Betway🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.06%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 07:55
SportsBet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.06%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 08:10
Betclic (FR)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.71%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.80%EV -6.92%E -1.55%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 07:54
PlayUp🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.44%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.57%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.99%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-17 07:50
Paddy Power🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.10%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.30%EV -8.58%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.60%EV -12.15%E -2.89%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-17 08:09
Unibet (FR)🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 19.58%EV -10.10%E -2.17%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.50%EV -8.58%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.93%EV -9.01%E -2.07%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-17 07:50
888sport🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.07%E -2.41%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.69%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.28%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 07:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.07%E -2.41%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.69%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.28%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 07:40
888sport (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.07%E -2.41%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.69%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.28%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 07:40
William Hill🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.07%E -2.41%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.69%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.28%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 07:40
NetBet (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.22%EV -11.07%E -2.41%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 59.73%EV -11.57%E -7.82%K -24.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.05%EV -12.15%E -2.89%K -3.80%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-17 08:16
Winamax (DE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -13.00%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -6.79%E -4.35%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 07:50
Sky Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.74%EV -13.00%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.06%EV -8.58%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.21%EV -16.33%E -4.08%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-17 08:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.05%EV -13.00%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 57.14%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.81%EV -24.70%E -6.86%K -9.50%G +0.000%16.7%2026-05-17 07:55
Winamax (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -14.93%E -3.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.82%EV -7.99%E -5.19%K -14.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-17 07:55
BoyleSports🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -16.29%E -3.76%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.59%EV -8.58%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-17 07:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets5.30I 18.87%NM 18.80%1.66I 60.24%NM 60.01%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.19%0.4%2026-05-17 08:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.30I 18.87%NM 18.80%1.66I 60.24%NM 60.01%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.19%0.4%2026-05-17 08:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.30I 18.87%NM 18.80%1.66I 60.24%NM 60.01%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.19%0.4%2026-05-17 08:20
Matchbook5.30I 18.87%NM 18.80%1.66I 60.24%NM 60.01%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.19%0.4%2026-05-17 08:16
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.20I 19.23%NM 19.09%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.79%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.12%0.7%2026-05-17 08:20
Kalshi5.26I 19.01%NM 18.66%1.59I 62.89%NM 61.72%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.63%1.9%2026-05-17 06:45