La escuela de los momios

Heracles Almelo v Groningen

Inicio: 2026-05-17 12:30 UTC

Final: Heracles Almelo 1–2 Groningen

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Heracles Almelo (Local)

Predicción 19.33%5.17momio equitativo
EV +12.13%
Ventaja +2.09%
Kelly +2.53%
Crecimiento +0.307%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.80%19.30%19.41%20.70%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.334.914.905.8023.09%20.37%20.41%17.24%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Groningen (Visitante)

Predicción 59.75%1.67momio equitativo
EV -4.40%
Ventaja -2.75%
Kelly -7.34%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
57.14%59.77%59.64%63.70%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.431.541.551.6069.93%64.91%64.52%62.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 20.92%4.78momio equitativo
EV +4.59%
Ventaja +0.918%
Kelly +1.15%
Crecimiento +0.053%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.49%20.93%20.94%23.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.604.454.455.0027.78%22.47%22.47%20.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)5.80I 17.24%NM 16.94%EV +12.13%E +2.09%K +2.53%G +0.307%1.55I 64.52%NM 63.40%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.65%EV +4.59%E +0.918%K +1.15%G +0.053%1.8%2026-05-17 07:20
Svenska Spel5.80I 17.24%NM 16.94%EV +12.13%E +2.09%K +2.53%G +0.307%1.55I 64.52%NM 63.40%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.65%EV +4.59%E +0.918%K +1.15%G +0.053%1.8%2026-05-17 07:20
Unibet (NL)5.80I 17.24%NM 16.80%EV +12.13%E +2.09%K +2.53%G +0.307%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.70%EV -8.58%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.49%EV +4.59%E +0.918%K +1.15%G +0.053%2.6%2026-05-17 07:20
Casumo5.30I 18.87%NM 17.59%EV +2.47%E +0.465%K +0.574%G +0.014%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.15%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -3.78%E -0.821%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 19:05
Unibet (SE)5.30I 18.87%NM 17.59%EV +2.47%E +0.465%K +0.574%G +0.014%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.15%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -3.78%E -0.821%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 19:05
betPARX5.30I 18.87%NM 17.59%EV +2.47%E +0.465%K +0.574%G +0.014%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.15%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -3.78%E -0.821%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 19:05
Coolbet5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV +1.50%E +0.286%K +0.353%G +0.005%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.83%EV -6.79%E -4.35%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 07:25
Unibet5.20I 19.23%NM 17.87%EV +0.534%E +0.103%K +0.127%G +0.001%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.94%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -3.78%E -0.821%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 07:20
BetRivers5.10I 19.61%NM 17.92%EV -1.40%E -0.274%K -0.341%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.76%EV -11.57%E -7.82%K -24.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-16 18:35
Grosvenor5.10I 19.61%NM 17.84%EV -1.40%E -0.274%K -0.341%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.48%EV -11.57%E -7.82%K -24.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.68%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-17 07:20
TABtouch5.10I 19.61%NM 17.84%EV -1.40%E -0.274%K -0.341%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.48%EV -11.57%E -7.82%K -24.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.68%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-17 07:20
BetMGM5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.14%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 07:00
Coral5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.14%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 07:00
Ladbrokes (UK)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.14%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 06:45
Fanatics5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.14%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 07:00
FanDuel5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.85%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-17 08:08
Bet Victor5.00I 20.00%NM 18.73%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.64%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.63%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 07:54
Betr (AU)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.16%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 07:25
PointsBet (AU)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.52%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.91%EV -9.18%E -6.04%K -17.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 07:25
betfred_uk5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%EV -8.58%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.29%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 07:26
Virgin Bet5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 61.58%EV -12.77%E -8.74%K -27.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.43%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 07:20
LiveScore Bet5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 61.58%EV -12.77%E -8.74%K -27.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.43%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 07:20
LeoVegas (SE)5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 61.75%EV -13.36%E -9.22%K -29.70%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.35%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-17 07:20
LeoVegas5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 61.75%EV -13.36%E -9.22%K -29.70%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.35%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-17 07:20
1xBet4.93I 20.28%NM 19.42%EV -4.69%E -0.951%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.85%EV -4.40%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.62I 21.65%NM 20.73%EV -3.36%E -0.727%K -0.928%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-17 08:20
Betsson4.90I 20.41%NM 19.37%EV -5.27%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.31%EV -4.40%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.32%EV -6.92%E -1.55%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 07:50
NordicBet4.90I 20.41%NM 19.37%EV -5.27%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.31%EV -4.40%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.32%EV -6.92%E -1.55%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 07:50
Tipico (DE)4.90I 20.41%NM 19.05%EV -5.27%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.21%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-17 08:05
Bet Right4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -5.27%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.80%EV -8.58%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.53%EV -11.10%E -2.61%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-17 07:26
PMU (FR)4.90I 20.41%NM 18.01%EV -5.27%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 61.71%EV -14.56%E -10.18%K -33.86%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.29%EV -9.01%E -2.07%K -2.69%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-16 18:35
Pinnacle4.87I 20.53%NM 19.68%EV -5.85%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.89%EV -4.40%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.69I 21.32%NM 20.43%EV -1.90%E -0.404%K -0.514%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-17 08:16
DraftKings4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -7.20%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.36%EV -5.00%E -3.14%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 08:05
Codere (IT)4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -7.20%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.36%EV -5.00%E -3.14%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 07:56
Unibet (UK)4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -7.20%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.51%EV -5.60%E -3.54%K -9.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 07:50
Marathon Bet4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -7.20%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.82%EV -6.79%E -4.35%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 08:15
LowVig.ag4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -7.20%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.82%EV -6.79%E -4.35%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 07:35
BetOnline.ag4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -7.20%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.82%EV -6.79%E -4.35%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 07:35
Bovada4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.59%EV -4.82%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 08:12
BetUS4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.59%EV -4.82%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 08:15
BetAnything4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.59%EV -4.82%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 08:15
Everygame4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.54%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 07:49
Betway4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.06%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 07:55
SportsBet4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.06%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 08:10
Betclic (FR)4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.71%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.80%EV -6.92%E -1.55%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 07:54
PlayUp4.75I 21.05%NM 19.44%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.57%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.99%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-17 07:50
Paddy Power4.75I 21.05%NM 19.10%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.30%EV -8.58%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.60%EV -12.15%E -2.89%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-17 08:09
Unibet (FR)4.65I 21.51%NM 19.58%EV -10.10%E -2.17%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.50%EV -8.58%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.93%EV -9.01%E -2.07%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-17 07:50
888sport4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.07%E -2.41%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.69%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.28%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 07:40
Mr Green (SE)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.07%E -2.41%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.69%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.28%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 07:40
888sport (SE)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.07%E -2.41%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.69%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.28%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 07:40
William Hill4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.07%E -2.41%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.69%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.28%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 07:40
NetBet (FR)4.60I 21.74%NM 19.22%EV -11.07%E -2.41%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 59.73%EV -11.57%E -7.82%K -24.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.05%EV -12.15%E -2.89%K -3.80%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-17 08:16
Winamax (DE)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -13.00%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -6.79%E -4.35%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 07:50
Sky Bet4.50I 22.22%NM 19.74%EV -13.00%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.06%EV -8.58%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.21%EV -16.33%E -4.08%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-17 08:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)4.50I 22.22%NM 19.05%EV -13.00%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 57.14%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.81%EV -24.70%E -6.86%K -9.50%G +0.000%16.7%2026-05-17 07:55
Winamax (FR)4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -14.93%E -3.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.82%EV -7.99%E -5.19%K -14.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-17 07:55
BoyleSports4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -16.29%E -3.76%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.59%EV -8.58%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-17 07:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets5.30I 18.87%NM 18.80%1.66I 60.24%NM 60.01%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.19%0.4%2026-05-17 08:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.30I 18.87%NM 18.80%1.66I 60.24%NM 60.01%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.19%0.4%2026-05-17 08:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.30I 18.87%NM 18.80%1.66I 60.24%NM 60.01%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.19%0.4%2026-05-17 08:20
Matchbook5.30I 18.87%NM 18.80%1.66I 60.24%NM 60.01%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.19%0.4%2026-05-17 08:16
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.20I 19.23%NM 19.09%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.79%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.12%0.7%2026-05-17 08:20
Kalshi5.26I 19.01%NM 18.66%1.59I 62.89%NM 61.72%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.63%1.9%2026-05-17 06:45