Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Heracles Almelo v Groningen

Início: 2026-05-17 12:30 UTC

Final: Heracles Almelo 1–2 Groningen

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

57 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Heracles Almelo (Local)

Previsão 19.33%5.17odd justa
EV +12.13%
Vantagem +2.09%
Kelly +2.53%
Crescimento +0.307%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.80

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
16.80%19.30%19.41%20.70%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.334.914.905.8023.09%20.37%20.41%17.24%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Groningen (Visitante)

Previsão 59.75%1.67odd justa
EV -4.40%
Vantagem -2.75%
Kelly -7.34%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
57.14%59.77%59.64%63.70%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.431.541.551.6069.93%64.91%64.52%62.50%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 20.92%4.78odd justa
EV +4.59%
Vantagem +0.918%
Kelly +1.15%
Crescimento +0.053%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
19.49%20.93%20.94%23.81%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.604.454.455.0027.78%22.47%22.47%20.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Heracles Almelo (Local): 19.33%; Groningen (Visitante): 59.75%; Empate: 20.92%. Para Heracles Almelo (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 5.17. 8 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 5.80, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +12.13%.

Odds das casas de apostas (57 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
ATG (SE)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.94%EV +12.13%E +2.09%K +2.53%G +0.307%1.55I 64.52%NM 63.40%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.65%EV +4.59%E +0.918%K +1.15%G +0.053%1.8%2026-05-17 07:20
Svenska Spel🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.94%EV +12.13%E +2.09%K +2.53%G +0.307%1.55I 64.52%NM 63.40%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.65%EV +4.59%E +0.918%K +1.15%G +0.053%1.8%2026-05-17 07:20
Unibet (NL)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.80%EV +12.13%E +2.09%K +2.53%G +0.307%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.70%EV -8.58%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.49%EV +4.59%E +0.918%K +1.15%G +0.053%2.6%2026-05-17 07:20
Casumo🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.59%EV +2.47%E +0.465%K +0.574%G +0.014%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.15%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -3.78%E -0.821%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 19:05
Unibet (SE)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.59%EV +2.47%E +0.465%K +0.574%G +0.014%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.15%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -3.78%E -0.821%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 19:05
betPARX🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.59%EV +2.47%E +0.465%K +0.574%G +0.014%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.15%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -3.78%E -0.821%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 19:05
Coolbet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV +1.50%E +0.286%K +0.353%G +0.005%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.83%EV -6.79%E -4.35%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 07:25
Unibet🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.87%EV +0.534%E +0.103%K +0.127%G +0.001%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.94%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -3.78%E -0.821%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 07:20
BetRivers🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.92%EV -1.40%E -0.274%K -0.341%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.76%EV -11.57%E -7.82%K -24.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-16 18:35
Grosvenor🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.84%EV -1.40%E -0.274%K -0.341%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.48%EV -11.57%E -7.82%K -24.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.68%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-17 07:20
TABtouch🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.84%EV -1.40%E -0.274%K -0.341%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.48%EV -11.57%E -7.82%K -24.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.68%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-17 07:20
BetMGM🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.14%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 07:00
Coral🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.14%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 07:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.14%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 06:45
Fanatics🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.14%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 07:00
FanDuel🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.85%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-17 08:08
Bet Victor🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.73%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.64%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.63%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 07:54
Betr (AU)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.16%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 07:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.52%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.91%EV -9.18%E -6.04%K -17.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 07:25
betfred_uk🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%EV -8.58%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.29%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 07:26
Virgin Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 61.58%EV -12.77%E -8.74%K -27.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.43%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 07:20
LiveScore Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 61.58%EV -12.77%E -8.74%K -27.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.43%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 07:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 61.75%EV -13.36%E -9.22%K -29.70%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.35%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-17 07:20
LeoVegas🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 61.75%EV -13.36%E -9.22%K -29.70%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.35%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-17 07:20
1xBet🎯4.93I 20.28%NM 19.42%EV -4.69%E -0.951%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.85%EV -4.40%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.62I 21.65%NM 20.73%EV -3.36%E -0.727%K -0.928%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-17 08:20
Betsson🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.37%EV -5.27%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.31%EV -4.40%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.32%EV -6.92%E -1.55%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 07:50
NordicBet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.37%EV -5.27%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.31%EV -4.40%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.32%EV -6.92%E -1.55%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 07:50
Tipico (DE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.05%EV -5.27%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.21%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-17 08:05
Bet Right🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -5.27%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.80%EV -8.58%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.53%EV -11.10%E -2.61%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-17 07:26
PMU (FR)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.01%EV -5.27%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 61.71%EV -14.56%E -10.18%K -33.86%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.29%EV -9.01%E -2.07%K -2.69%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-16 18:35
Pinnacle🎯4.87I 20.53%NM 19.68%EV -5.85%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.89%EV -4.40%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.69I 21.32%NM 20.43%EV -1.90%E -0.404%K -0.514%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-17 08:16
DraftKings🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -7.20%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.36%EV -5.00%E -3.14%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 08:05
Codere (IT)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -7.20%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.36%EV -5.00%E -3.14%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 07:56
Unibet (UK)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -7.20%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.51%EV -5.60%E -3.54%K -9.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 07:50
Marathon Bet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -7.20%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.82%EV -6.79%E -4.35%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 08:15
LowVig.ag🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -7.20%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.82%EV -6.79%E -4.35%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 07:35
BetOnline.ag🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -7.20%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.82%EV -6.79%E -4.35%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 07:35
Bovada🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.59%EV -4.82%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 08:12
BetUS🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.59%EV -4.82%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 08:15
BetAnything🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.59%EV -4.82%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 08:15
Everygame🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.54%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 07:49
Betway🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.06%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 07:55
SportsBet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.06%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 08:10
Betclic (FR)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.71%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.80%EV -6.92%E -1.55%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 07:54
PlayUp🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.44%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.57%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.99%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-17 07:50
Paddy Power🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.10%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.30%EV -8.58%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.60%EV -12.15%E -2.89%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-17 08:09
Unibet (FR)🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 19.58%EV -10.10%E -2.17%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.50%EV -8.58%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.93%EV -9.01%E -2.07%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-17 07:50
888sport🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.07%E -2.41%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.69%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.28%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 07:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.07%E -2.41%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.69%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.28%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 07:40
888sport (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.07%E -2.41%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.69%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.28%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 07:40
William Hill🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.07%E -2.41%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.69%EV -6.19%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.28%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 07:40
NetBet (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.22%EV -11.07%E -2.41%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 59.73%EV -11.57%E -7.82%K -24.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.05%EV -12.15%E -2.89%K -3.80%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-17 08:16
Winamax (DE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -13.00%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -6.79%E -4.35%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -5.87%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 07:50
Sky Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.74%EV -13.00%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.06%EV -8.58%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.21%EV -16.33%E -4.08%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-17 08:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.05%EV -13.00%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 57.14%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.81%EV -24.70%E -6.86%K -9.50%G +0.000%16.7%2026-05-17 07:55
Winamax (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -14.93%E -3.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.82%EV -7.99%E -5.19%K -14.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -7.96%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-17 07:55
BoyleSports🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -16.29%E -3.76%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.59%EV -8.58%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-17 07:35
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Smarkets5.30I 18.87%NM 18.80%1.66I 60.24%NM 60.01%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.19%0.4%2026-05-17 08:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.30I 18.87%NM 18.80%1.66I 60.24%NM 60.01%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.19%0.4%2026-05-17 08:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.30I 18.87%NM 18.80%1.66I 60.24%NM 60.01%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.19%0.4%2026-05-17 08:20
Matchbook5.30I 18.87%NM 18.80%1.66I 60.24%NM 60.01%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.19%0.4%2026-05-17 08:16
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.20I 19.23%NM 19.09%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.79%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.12%0.7%2026-05-17 08:20
Kalshi5.26I 19.01%NM 18.66%1.59I 62.89%NM 61.72%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.63%1.9%2026-05-17 06:45