Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Heerenveen v SC Telstar

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Heerenveen (Local)

Prediction 57.36%1.74fair odd
EV -0.771%
Edge -0.446%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.82%57.25%57.43%58.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.461.641.651.7368.49%61.14%60.79%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Telstar (Visit)

Prediction 20.83%4.80fair odd
EV -2.08%
Edge -0.442%
Kelly -0.561%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.88%20.94%20.79%22.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.424.404.7025.32%22.64%22.73%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.81%4.59fair odd
EV +1.19%
Edge +0.256%
Kelly +0.326%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 4.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.66%21.82%21.78%22.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.204.204.6427.03%23.78%23.81%21.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Heerenveen (Local): 57.36%; SC Telstar (Visit): 20.83%; Draw: 21.81%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.59. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.64, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.19%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV -4.79%E -2.88%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.85%EV -3.33%E -0.717%K -0.914%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.85%EV +1.19%E +0.256%K +0.326%G +0.004%3.3%2026-03-14 18:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.06%EV -4.21%E -2.52%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.63%EV -2.08%E -0.442%K -0.561%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.31%EV -0.777%E -0.171%K -0.219%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-14 18:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.06%EV -4.21%E -2.52%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.63%EV -2.08%E -0.442%K -0.561%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.31%EV -0.777%E -0.171%K -0.219%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-14 18:35
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.35%EV -3.64%E -2.17%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.62I 21.65%NM 20.85%EV -3.74%E -0.810%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.80%EV -3.61%E -0.817%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-14 18:50
Bet Victor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.68%EV -5.36%E -3.25%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -4.16%E -0.904%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.63%EV -4.05%E -0.920%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 18:35
Coolbet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.42%EV -5.36%E -3.25%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.24%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.53%EV -4.05%E -0.920%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-14 18:44
Codere (IT)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.36%E -3.25%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -4.05%E -0.920%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-14 17:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.27%EV -5.36%E -3.25%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.00%EV -6.24%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.72%EV -5.14%E -1.18%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 17:35
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.16%EV -3.07%E -1.81%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.92%EV -9.79%E -2.26%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.92%EV -5.57%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-14 17:04
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.45%EV -4.21%E -2.52%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.77%EV -9.79%E -2.26%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.77%EV -5.57%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-14 17:05
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.98%EV -9.95%E -6.34%K -17.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -16.66%E -4.17%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.66%EV -5.57%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-14 17:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 56.23%EV -0.771%E -0.446%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.15%EV -4.16%E -0.904%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.62%EV -6.23%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-14 18:00
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.83%EV -4.21%E -2.52%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -6.24%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.07%EV -6.23%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-14 18:45
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -5.36%E -3.25%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.59%EV -4.16%E -0.904%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.02%EV -6.23%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-14 18:55
Bovada🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.41%EV -5.93%E -3.62%K -9.27%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.69%EV -5.20%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%EV -6.23%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-14 18:55
BetUS🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.41%EV -5.93%E -3.62%K -9.27%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.69%EV -5.20%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%EV -6.23%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-14 18:55
BetAnything🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.41%EV -5.93%E -3.62%K -9.27%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.69%EV -5.20%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%EV -6.23%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-14 18:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.86%EV -5.36%E -3.25%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -6.23%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 18:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.39%EV -8.23%E -5.14%K -13.71%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.88%EV -2.08%E -0.442%K -0.561%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -6.23%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 18:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.99%EV -7.65%E -4.75%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -4.16%E -0.904%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV -6.23%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 18:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.74%EV -8.23%E -5.14%K -13.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.14%EV -14.58%E -3.56%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -6.23%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 17:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.82%EV -0.771%E -0.446%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.46%EV -6.24%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.72%EV -7.32%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-14 18:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.82%EV -0.771%E -0.446%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.46%EV -6.24%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.72%EV -7.32%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-14 18:05
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.37%EV -5.36%E -3.25%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.36%EV -3.12%E -0.671%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.27%EV -7.32%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-14 18:45
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.37%EV -5.36%E -3.25%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.36%EV -3.12%E -0.671%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.27%EV -7.32%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-14 18:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.43%EV -7.08%E -4.37%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -6.24%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -7.32%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 18:25
Bet Right🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.01%EV -6.51%E -3.99%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.12%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -7.32%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 18:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.83%EV -2.49%E -1.47%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -8.41%E -2.00%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-14 18:05
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.12%EV -3.64%E -2.17%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%EV -8.41%E -2.00%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-14 18:05
Everygame🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.83%EV -5.36%E -3.25%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -6.24%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -8.41%E -2.00%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.08%EV -4.21%E -2.52%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.63%EV -9.79%E -2.26%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -8.41%E -2.00%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-14 17:05
FanDuel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.69%EV -7.65%E -4.75%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -4.16%E -0.904%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -8.41%E -2.00%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-14 18:54
SportsBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.43%EV -7.65%E -4.75%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -6.24%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.02%EV -8.41%E -2.00%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-14 18:50
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.43%EV -7.65%E -4.75%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -6.24%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.02%EV -8.41%E -2.00%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-14 18:55
Fliff🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%EV -7.65%E -4.75%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.44%EV -11.45%E -2.69%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.96%EV -9.50%E -2.29%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-14 18:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.53%EV -11.10%E -7.16%K -20.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.98%EV -11.45%E -2.69%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.49%EV -9.50%E -2.29%K -3.02%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-14 18:34
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.82%EV -3.64%E -2.17%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -10.59%E -2.58%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 18:00
LeoVegas🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.82%EV -3.64%E -2.17%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -10.59%E -2.58%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 18:00
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.82%EV -3.64%E -2.17%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -10.59%E -2.58%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 18:00
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%EV -4.21%E -2.52%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -10.59%E -2.58%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 18:00
TABtouch🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.98%EV -4.79%E -2.88%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.36%EV -9.37%E -2.15%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -10.59%E -2.58%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 18:05
Grosvenor🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.98%EV -4.79%E -2.88%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.36%EV -9.37%E -2.15%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -10.59%E -2.58%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 18:00
PlayUp🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.83%EV -6.51%E -3.99%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -6.24%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -10.59%E -2.58%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-14 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.14%EV -5.93%E -3.62%K -9.27%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.41%EV -10.41%E -2.42%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -10.59%E -2.58%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 18:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.32%EV -10.52%E -6.74%K -18.79%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.24%EV -17.70%E -4.48%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.43%EV -10.59%E -2.58%K -3.42%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-14 17:35
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.26%EV -12.24%E -8.00%K -23.10%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.11%EV -13.54%E -3.26%K -4.30%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.63%EV -11.68%E -2.88%K -3.83%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-14 18:35
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.40%EV -7.08%E -4.37%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.76%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -12.77%E -3.19%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-14 18:45
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.55%EV -7.65%E -4.75%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.77%E -3.19%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 18:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.55%EV -7.65%E -4.75%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.77%E -3.19%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 18:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.55%EV -7.65%E -4.75%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.77%E -3.19%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 18:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.83%EV -6.51%E -3.99%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.41%EV -11.45%E -2.69%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -12.77%E -3.19%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 18:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.83%EV -6.51%E -3.99%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.41%EV -11.45%E -2.69%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -12.77%E -3.19%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 18:05
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.17%EV -9.95%E -6.34%K -17.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.40%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.44%EV -12.77%E -3.19%K -4.26%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-14 18:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 57.12%EV -12.82%E -8.43%K -24.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.18%EV -14.58%E -3.56%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.71%EV -12.77%E -3.19%K -4.26%G +0.000%15.2%2026-03-14 18:15
Sky Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.83%EV -8.23%E -5.14%K -13.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -12.49%E -2.97%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -14.95%E -3.83%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-14 18:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 56.83%EV -16.26%E -11.14%K -35.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 20.74%EV -16.66%E -4.17%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.43%EV -19.31%E -5.22%K -7.15%G +0.000%20.5%2026-03-14 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.69I 59.17%NM 58.58%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.41%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.00%1.0%2026-03-14 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.69I 59.17%NM 58.58%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.41%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.00%1.0%2026-03-14 18:55
Matchbook1.68I 59.52%NM 58.73%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.35%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.93%1.4%2026-03-14 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.69I 59.17%NM 58.36%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.73%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.92%1.4%2026-03-14 18:55
Smarkets1.69I 59.17%NM 58.12%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.05%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.83%1.8%2026-03-14 18:45
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.62%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.62%1.9%2026-03-14 18:55