La escuela de los momios

Heerenveen v SC Telstar

Inicio: 2026-03-14 19:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Heerenveen (Local)

Predicción 57.36%1.74momio equitativo
EV -0.771%
Ventaja -0.446%
Kelly -1.06%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.73

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
55.82%57.25%57.43%58.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.461.641.651.7368.49%61.14%60.79%57.80%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

SC Telstar (Visitante)

Predicción 20.83%4.80momio equitativo
EV -2.08%
Ventaja -0.442%
Kelly -0.561%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.88%20.94%20.79%22.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.954.424.404.7025.32%22.64%22.73%21.28%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 21.81%4.59momio equitativo
EV +1.19%
Ventaja +0.256%
Kelly +0.326%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.64

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.66%21.82%21.78%22.90%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.704.204.204.6427.03%23.78%23.81%21.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
1xBet1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV -4.79%E -2.88%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.85%EV -3.33%E -0.717%K -0.914%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.85%EV +1.19%E +0.256%K +0.326%G +0.004%3.3%2026-03-14 18:55
LowVig.ag1.67I 59.88%NM 58.06%EV -4.21%E -2.52%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.63%EV -2.08%E -0.442%K -0.561%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.31%EV -0.777%E -0.171%K -0.219%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-14 18:35
BetOnline.ag1.67I 59.88%NM 58.06%EV -4.21%E -2.52%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.63%EV -2.08%E -0.442%K -0.561%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.31%EV -0.777%E -0.171%K -0.219%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-14 18:35
Pinnacle1.68I 59.52%NM 57.35%EV -3.64%E -2.17%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.62I 21.65%NM 20.85%EV -3.74%E -0.810%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.80%EV -3.61%E -0.817%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-14 18:50
Bet Victor1.65I 60.61%NM 57.68%EV -5.36%E -3.25%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -4.16%E -0.904%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.63%EV -4.05%E -0.920%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 18:35
Coolbet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.42%EV -5.36%E -3.25%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.24%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.53%EV -4.05%E -0.920%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-14 18:44
Codere (IT)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.36%E -3.25%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -4.05%E -0.920%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-14 17:35
Unibet (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.27%EV -5.36%E -3.25%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.00%EV -6.24%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.72%EV -5.14%E -1.18%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 17:35
BetMGM1.69I 59.17%NM 56.16%EV -3.07%E -1.81%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.92%EV -9.79%E -2.26%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.92%EV -5.57%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-14 17:04
Coral1.67I 59.88%NM 56.45%EV -4.21%E -2.52%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.77%EV -9.79%E -2.26%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.77%EV -5.57%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-14 17:05
BoyleSports1.57I 63.69%NM 56.98%EV -9.95%E -6.34%K -17.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -16.66%E -4.17%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.66%EV -5.57%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-14 17:35
Unibet (NL)1.73I 57.80%NM 56.23%EV -0.771%E -0.446%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.15%EV -4.16%E -0.904%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.62%EV -6.23%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-14 18:00
Fanatics1.67I 59.88%NM 56.83%EV -4.21%E -2.52%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -6.24%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.07%EV -6.23%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-14 18:45
DraftKings1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -5.36%E -3.25%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.59%EV -4.16%E -0.904%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.02%EV -6.23%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-14 18:55
Bovada1.64I 60.98%NM 57.41%EV -5.93%E -3.62%K -9.27%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.69%EV -5.20%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%EV -6.23%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-14 18:55
BetUS1.64I 60.98%NM 57.41%EV -5.93%E -3.62%K -9.27%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.69%EV -5.20%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%EV -6.23%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-14 18:55
BetAnything1.64I 60.98%NM 57.41%EV -5.93%E -3.62%K -9.27%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.69%EV -5.20%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%EV -6.23%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-14 18:55
Betr (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.86%EV -5.36%E -3.25%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -6.23%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 18:50
Tipico (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.39%EV -8.23%E -5.14%K -13.71%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.88%EV -2.08%E -0.442%K -0.561%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -6.23%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 18:50
Marathon Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 57.99%EV -7.65%E -4.75%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -4.16%E -0.904%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV -6.23%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 18:54
Winamax (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 56.74%EV -8.23%E -5.14%K -13.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.14%EV -14.58%E -3.56%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -6.23%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 17:35
ATG (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 55.82%EV -0.771%E -0.446%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.46%EV -6.24%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.72%EV -7.32%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-14 18:00
Svenska Spel1.73I 57.80%NM 55.82%EV -0.771%E -0.446%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.46%EV -6.24%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.72%EV -7.32%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-14 18:05
Betsson1.65I 60.61%NM 57.37%EV -5.36%E -3.25%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.36%EV -3.12%E -0.671%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.27%EV -7.32%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-14 18:45
NordicBet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.37%EV -5.36%E -3.25%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.36%EV -3.12%E -0.671%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.27%EV -7.32%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-14 18:45
PointsBet (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.43%EV -7.08%E -4.37%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -6.24%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -7.32%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 18:25
Bet Right1.63I 61.35%NM 57.01%EV -6.51%E -3.99%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.12%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -7.32%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 18:50
Unibet (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.83%EV -2.49%E -1.47%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -8.41%E -2.00%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-14 18:05
Unibet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.12%EV -3.64%E -2.17%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%EV -8.41%E -2.00%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-14 18:05
Everygame1.65I 60.61%NM 56.83%EV -5.36%E -3.25%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -6.24%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -8.41%E -2.00%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.08%EV -4.21%E -2.52%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.63%EV -9.79%E -2.26%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -8.41%E -2.00%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-14 17:05
FanDuel1.61I 62.11%NM 57.69%EV -7.65%E -4.75%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -4.16%E -0.904%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -8.41%E -2.00%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-14 18:54
SportsBet1.61I 62.11%NM 57.43%EV -7.65%E -4.75%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -6.24%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.02%EV -8.41%E -2.00%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-14 18:50
Betway1.61I 62.11%NM 57.43%EV -7.65%E -4.75%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -6.24%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.02%EV -8.41%E -2.00%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-14 18:55
Fliff1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%EV -7.65%E -4.75%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.44%EV -11.45%E -2.69%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.96%EV -9.50%E -2.29%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-14 18:35
Betclic (FR)1.55I 64.52%NM 57.53%EV -11.10%E -7.16%K -20.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.98%EV -11.45%E -2.69%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.49%EV -9.50%E -2.29%K -3.02%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-14 18:34
Casumo1.68I 59.52%NM 55.82%EV -3.64%E -2.17%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -10.59%E -2.58%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 18:00
LeoVegas1.68I 59.52%NM 55.82%EV -3.64%E -2.17%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -10.59%E -2.58%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 18:00
betPARX1.68I 59.52%NM 55.82%EV -3.64%E -2.17%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -10.59%E -2.58%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 18:00
BetRivers1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%EV -4.21%E -2.52%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -10.59%E -2.58%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 18:00
TABtouch1.66I 60.24%NM 55.98%EV -4.79%E -2.88%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.36%EV -9.37%E -2.15%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -10.59%E -2.58%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 18:05
Grosvenor1.66I 60.24%NM 55.98%EV -4.79%E -2.88%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.36%EV -9.37%E -2.15%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -10.59%E -2.58%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 18:00
PlayUp1.63I 61.35%NM 56.83%EV -6.51%E -3.99%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -6.24%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -10.59%E -2.58%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-14 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 56.14%EV -5.93%E -3.62%K -9.27%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.41%EV -10.41%E -2.42%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -10.59%E -2.58%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 18:05
Winamax (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 56.32%EV -10.52%E -6.74%K -18.79%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.24%EV -17.70%E -4.48%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.43%EV -10.59%E -2.58%K -3.42%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-14 17:35
Parions Sport (FR)1.53I 65.36%NM 57.26%EV -12.24%E -8.00%K -23.10%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.11%EV -13.54%E -3.26%K -4.30%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.63%EV -11.68%E -2.88%K -3.83%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-14 18:35
William Hill1.62I 61.73%NM 56.40%EV -7.08%E -4.37%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.76%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -12.77%E -3.19%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-14 18:45
888sport1.61I 62.11%NM 56.55%EV -7.65%E -4.75%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.77%E -3.19%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 18:45
Mr Green (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 56.55%EV -7.65%E -4.75%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.77%E -3.19%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 18:45
888sport (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 56.55%EV -7.65%E -4.75%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.77%E -3.19%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 18:45
Virgin Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 55.83%EV -6.51%E -3.99%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.41%EV -11.45%E -2.69%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -12.77%E -3.19%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 18:00
LiveScore Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 55.83%EV -6.51%E -3.99%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.41%EV -11.45%E -2.69%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -12.77%E -3.19%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 18:05
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 57.17%EV -9.95%E -6.34%K -17.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.40%EV -8.33%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.44%EV -12.77%E -3.19%K -4.26%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-14 18:50
NetBet (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 57.12%EV -12.82%E -8.43%K -24.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.18%EV -14.58%E -3.56%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.71%EV -12.77%E -3.19%K -4.26%G +0.000%15.2%2026-03-14 18:15
Sky Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 55.83%EV -8.23%E -5.14%K -13.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -12.49%E -2.97%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -14.95%E -3.83%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-14 18:50
PMU (FR)1.46I 68.49%NM 56.83%EV -16.26%E -11.14%K -35.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 20.74%EV -16.66%E -4.17%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.43%EV -19.31%E -5.22%K -7.15%G +0.000%20.5%2026-03-14 18:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.69I 59.17%NM 58.58%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.41%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.00%1.0%2026-03-14 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.69I 59.17%NM 58.58%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.41%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.00%1.0%2026-03-14 18:55
Matchbook1.68I 59.52%NM 58.73%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.35%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.93%1.4%2026-03-14 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.69I 59.17%NM 58.36%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.73%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.92%1.4%2026-03-14 18:55
Smarkets1.69I 59.17%NM 58.12%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.05%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.83%1.8%2026-03-14 18:45
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.62%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.62%1.9%2026-03-14 18:55