Language:English
Groningen v NEC Nijmegen
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Groningen (Local)
Prediction 34.36%2.91fair odd
EV +1.35%
Edge +0.458%
Kelly +0.693%
Growth +0.009%
assuming max odds 2.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.21%34.36%34.37%35.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.732.752.9539.22%36.59%36.36%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
NEC Nijmegen (Visit)
Prediction 39.73%2.52fair odd
EV -1.48%
Edge -0.595%
Kelly -0.998%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.48
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.87%39.66%39.71%41.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.322.352.4847.62%43.05%42.55%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.92%3.86fair odd
EV -0.221%
Edge -0.057%
Kelly -0.077%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.84%25.97%25.92%27.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.583.603.8533.33%27.95%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Groningen (Local): 34.36%; NEC Nijmegen (Visit): 39.73%; Draw: 25.92%. For Groningen (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.91. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.35%.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.98%EV +1.35%E +0.458%K +0.693%G +0.009% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.75%EV -7.44%E -3.19%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.27%EV -0.221%E -0.057%K -0.077%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.22%EV -2.09%E -0.732%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.53%EV -9.42%E -4.13%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.25%EV -2.81%E -0.750%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -2.09%E -0.732%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -9.42%E -4.13%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV -4.11%E -1.11%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.83I 35.34%NM 34.01%EV -2.77%E -0.980%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.77%EV -3.86%E -1.60%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 26.22%EV -4.89%E -1.33%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-10 14:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.83I 35.34%NM 33.93%EV -2.77%E -0.980%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.68%EV -3.86%E -1.60%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.38%EV -5.66%E -1.56%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-10 14:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.95%EV -3.80%E -1.36%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.28%EV -3.86%E -1.60%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -8.00%E -2.25%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.95%EV -3.80%E -1.36%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.28%EV -3.86%E -1.60%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -8.00%E -2.25%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-10 14:23 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -3.80%E -1.36%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.83%EV -6.64%E -2.83%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -3.80%E -1.36%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -8.63%E -3.75%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -3.80%E -1.36%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -10.61%E -4.72%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -4.11%E -1.11%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -3.80%E -1.36%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -10.61%E -4.72%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -4.11%E -1.11%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -3.80%E -1.36%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -8.63%E -3.75%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-10 14:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -3.80%E -1.36%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.54%EV -11.41%E -5.12%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -5.40%E -1.48%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -3.80%E -1.36%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.54%EV -11.41%E -5.12%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -5.40%E -1.48%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.88%EV -4.49%E -1.62%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -5.45%E -2.29%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.54%EV -8.00%E -2.25%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-10 14:31 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.88%EV -4.49%E -1.62%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -5.45%E -2.29%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.54%EV -8.00%E -2.25%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-10 14:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.76%EV -4.49%E -1.62%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -5.45%E -2.29%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-10 14:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.62%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.00%EV -5.45%E -2.29%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -2.81%E -0.750%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.62%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.00%EV -5.45%E -2.29%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -2.81%E -0.750%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-10 14:23 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.96%EV -5.85%E -2.47%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -4.11%E -1.11%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -4.65%E -1.94%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-10 14:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -4.65%E -1.94%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-10 14:23 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -4.65%E -1.94%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -6.64%E -2.83%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.93%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.71%EV -6.64%E -2.83%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.36%EV -8.25%E -2.33%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -6.64%E -2.83%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -11.88%E -3.50%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-10 14:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -12.60%E -5.73%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.09%EV -5.40%E -1.48%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -12.60%E -5.73%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.09%EV -5.40%E -1.48%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.05%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.70%EV -13.39%E -6.14%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-10 14:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.05%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.70%EV -13.39%E -6.14%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.05%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.70%EV -13.39%E -6.14%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.15%EV -7.24%E -2.68%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.54%EV -4.65%E -1.94%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.31%EV -2.81%E -0.750%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 14:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -7.24%E -2.68%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.43%EV -5.85%E -2.47%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.41%EV -7.24%E -2.68%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.04%EV -5.45%E -2.29%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-10 14:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -7.24%E -2.68%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -5.45%E -2.29%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -14.47%E -4.39%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-10 14:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -7.24%E -2.68%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -5.45%E -2.29%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -14.47%E -4.39%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-10 14:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.24%E -2.68%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -8.63%E -3.75%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.88%E -3.50%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-10 14:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -7.24%E -2.68%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.76%EV -10.61%E -4.72%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.11%EV -14.47%E -4.39%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-10 14:34 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 34.03%EV -8.27%E -3.10%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 40.74%EV -11.41%E -5.12%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-10 14:32 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.30%EV -8.61%E -3.24%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.87%EV -1.48%E -0.595%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.30%EV -8.61%E -3.24%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.87%EV -1.48%E -0.595%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -8.96%E -3.38%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -4.65%E -1.94%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.16%EV -8.96%E -3.38%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.65%EV -6.64%E -2.83%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -4.11%E -1.11%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.16%EV -8.96%E -3.38%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.65%EV -6.64%E -2.83%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -4.11%E -1.11%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.89%EV -8.96%E -3.38%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.82%EV -12.60%E -5.73%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.30%EV -8.00%E -2.25%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.53%EV -10.67%E -4.11%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.81%EV -5.45%E -2.29%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.66%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%EV -10.67%E -4.11%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -6.64%E -2.83%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.87%EV -10.67%E -4.11%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -10.61%E -4.72%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.84%EV -5.40%E -1.48%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.50%EV -10.67%E -4.11%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -10.61%E -4.72%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 32.21%EV -10.67%E -4.11%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 39.88%EV -16.57%E -7.89%K -15.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 27.91%EV -22.25%E -7.42%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 19.4% | 2026-05-10 14:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.19%EV -12.39%E -4.86%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.88%EV -10.61%E -4.72%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.93%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.68% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.92% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.40% | 1.0% | 2026-05-10 14:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.68% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.92% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.40% | 1.0% | 2026-05-10 14:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.68% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.92% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.40% | 1.0% | 2026-05-10 14:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.68% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.92% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.40% | 1.0% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.60% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.88% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.52% | 1.9% | 2026-05-10 14:24 |