Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Groningen v Excelsior

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 16:45 UTC

Final: Groningen 2–3 Excelsior

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Groningen (Local)

Prediction 55.05%1.82fair odd
EV -3.67%
Edge -2.10%
Kelly -4.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.15%55.09%55.10%56.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.681.701.7563.29%59.37%58.82%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Excelsior (Visit)

Prediction 21.16%4.73fair odd
EV +1.57%
Edge +0.327%
Kelly +0.413%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.91%21.13%21.15%22.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.444.454.8025.00%22.54%22.47%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.79%4.20fair odd
EV +1.12%
Edge +0.263%
Kelly +0.344%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.80%23.78%23.76%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.913.904.2529.41%25.55%25.64%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Groningen (Local): 55.05%; Excelsior (Visit): 21.16%; Draw: 23.79%. For Excelsior (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.73. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.57%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.86%EV -5.87%E -3.43%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.26%EV +1.57%E +0.327%K +0.413%G +0.006%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.88%EV +1.12%E +0.263%K +0.344%G +0.004%2.8%2026-05-02 16:40
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.16%EV -3.67%E -2.10%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.73I 21.14%NM 20.41%EV +0.087%E +0.018%K +0.023%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.44%EV -6.02%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-02 16:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.47%EV -5.87%E -3.43%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.54%EV -0.548%E -0.117%K -0.148%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.99%EV -0.070%E -0.017%K -0.022%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-02 16:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.47%EV -5.87%E -3.43%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.54%EV -0.548%E -0.117%K -0.148%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.99%EV -0.070%E -0.017%K -0.022%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-02 16:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.70%EV -9.17%E -5.56%K -14.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.91%EV -0.548%E -0.117%K -0.148%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -4.83%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 16:05
1xBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.44%EV -3.67%E -2.10%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.95%EV -2.03%E -0.438%K -0.559%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.61%EV -2.21%E -0.538%K -0.711%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-02 16:31
LowVig.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.50%EV -3.67%E -2.10%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%EV -2.66%E -0.579%K -0.740%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.77%EV -8.40%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-02 16:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.50%EV -3.67%E -2.10%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%EV -2.66%E -0.579%K -0.740%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.77%EV -8.40%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-02 16:35
BetAnything🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.50%EV -3.67%E -2.10%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%EV -2.66%E -0.579%K -0.740%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.77%EV -8.40%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-02 16:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.34%EV -7.52%E -4.48%K -11.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.58%EV -2.66%E -0.579%K -0.740%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -2.45%E -0.597%K -0.790%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-02 16:41
Unibet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.49%EV -8.07%E -4.83%K -12.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -2.66%E -0.579%K -0.740%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -2.45%E -0.597%K -0.790%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 16:10
Casumo🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.63%EV -8.62%E -5.19%K -13.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -2.66%E -0.579%K -0.740%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -2.45%E -0.597%K -0.790%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 16:10
betPARX🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.63%EV -8.62%E -5.19%K -13.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -2.66%E -0.579%K -0.740%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -2.45%E -0.597%K -0.790%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 16:10
BetRivers🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.78%EV -9.17%E -5.56%K -14.11%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -2.66%E -0.579%K -0.740%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -2.45%E -0.597%K -0.790%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 16:10
FanDuel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.12%EV -9.17%E -5.56%K -14.11%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -2.66%E -0.579%K -0.740%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.74%EV -7.21%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 16:01
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.63%EV -8.62%E -5.19%K -13.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -2.66%E -0.579%K -0.740%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -9.59%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 16:40
Bovada🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.77%EV -5.87%E -3.43%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.58%EV -3.72%E -0.818%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV -9.59%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 16:28
BetUS🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.77%EV -5.87%E -3.43%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.58%EV -3.72%E -0.818%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV -9.59%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 16:30
Coolbet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.04%EV -4.77%E -2.76%K -6.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -4.78%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -4.83%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-02 07:59
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.79%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.08%EV -4.78%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.13%EV -2.45%E -0.597%K -0.790%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 16:23
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.33%EV -5.87%E -3.43%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.02%EV -4.78%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -4.83%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-02 16:25
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.16%EV -5.87%E -3.43%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -4.78%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.88%EV -6.02%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 16:20
Everygame🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -4.78%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -10.78%E -2.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-02 16:20
Grosvenor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -9.17%E -5.56%K -14.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -4.78%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -4.83%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 16:40
TABtouch🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -9.17%E -5.56%K -14.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -4.78%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -4.83%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 16:40
LeoVegas🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.51%EV -10.27%E -6.30%K -16.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -4.78%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -4.83%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 16:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.51%EV -10.27%E -6.30%K -16.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -4.78%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -4.83%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 16:10
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.62%EV -10.82%E -6.68%K -17.46%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -4.78%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.35%EV -11.97%E -3.23%K -4.43%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-02 16:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.94%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.99%EV -5.84%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.07%EV -7.68%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 16:31
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.16%EV -3.67%E -2.10%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%EV -6.90%E -1.57%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -7.21%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 16:31
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.16%EV -3.67%E -2.10%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%EV -6.90%E -1.57%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -7.21%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 16:30
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.77%EV -4.77%E -2.76%K -6.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%EV -6.90%E -1.57%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%EV -4.83%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 07:55
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.30%EV -4.22%E -2.42%K -5.70%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -6.90%E -1.57%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.23%EV -7.21%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-02 07:54
Codere (IT)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.06%EV -5.87%E -3.43%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -6.90%E -1.57%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -4.83%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 07:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.21%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -6.90%E -1.57%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -4.83%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 07:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.39%EV -11.37%E -7.06%K -18.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -6.90%E -1.57%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%EV -6.02%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-02 16:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.39%EV -11.37%E -7.06%K -18.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -6.90%E -1.57%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%EV -6.02%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-02 16:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.39%EV -11.37%E -7.06%K -18.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -6.90%E -1.57%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%EV -6.02%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-02 16:40
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -5.32%E -3.09%K -7.39%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -7.95%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.99%EV -11.97%E -3.23%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.26%EV -4.77%E -2.76%K -6.53%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.68%EV -8.38%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -7.21%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 07:55
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.34%EV -8.38%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -9.59%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 16:00
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.17%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.27%EV -8.38%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -10.78%E -2.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 16:35
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.17%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.27%EV -8.38%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -10.78%E -2.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 16:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.17%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.27%EV -8.38%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -10.78%E -2.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 16:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.17%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.27%EV -8.38%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -10.78%E -2.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 16:35
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.82%EV -10.82%E -6.68%K -17.46%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.51%EV -8.38%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -14.35%E -3.99%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-02 16:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.93%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -9.01%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -4.83%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 06:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.75%EV -10.27%E -6.30%K -16.31%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -9.01%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 23.12%EV -6.49%E -1.65%K -2.22%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-02 16:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.47%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.79%EV -10.07%E -2.37%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.74%EV -7.21%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 08:01
Unibet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.34%EV -10.27%E -6.30%K -16.31%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.23%EV -10.07%E -2.37%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.43%EV -8.40%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-02 16:20
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -11.13%E -2.65%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -10.78%E -2.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-02 08:01
Bet Right🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.46%EV -7.52%E -4.48%K -11.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -11.13%E -2.65%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.76%EV -8.40%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-02 08:01
NetBet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.46%EV -13.03%E -8.24%K -22.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.86%EV -11.13%E -2.65%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.68%EV -11.97%E -3.23%K -4.43%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-02 16:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.95%EV -8.62%E -5.19%K -13.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -13.24%E -3.23%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -4.83%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-02 07:39
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.85%EV -8.07%E -4.83%K -12.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -15.36%E -3.84%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -9.59%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-02 07:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.63%EV -9.72%E -5.93%K -15.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -15.36%E -3.84%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.97%EV -7.21%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-02 07:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.15%EV -10.82%E -6.68%K -17.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.53%EV -15.36%E -3.84%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.32%EV -19.10%E -5.62%K -7.96%G +0.000%16.1%2026-05-02 16:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.14%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.76%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%1.2%2026-05-02 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.14%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.76%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%1.2%2026-05-02 16:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.14%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.76%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%1.2%2026-05-02 16:29
Matchbook1.76I 56.82%NM 56.14%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.76%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%1.2%2026-05-02 16:20
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 56.38%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.37%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.25%3.1%2026-05-02 05:16
Smarkets1.74I 57.47%NM 55.63%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.17%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.20%3.3%2026-05-02 16:40