La scuola delle quote

Groningen v Excelsior

Inizio: 2026-05-02 16:45 UTC

Finale: Groningen 2–3 Excelsior

Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →

Testa a testa

57 bookmaker (21 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: IQM

Groningen (Casa)

Previsione 55.05%1.82quota equa
EV -3.67%
Vantaggio -2.10%
Kelly -4.89%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 1.75

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
53.15%55.09%55.10%56.86%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
1.581.681.701.7563.29%59.37%58.82%57.14%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Excelsior (Trasferta)

Previsione 21.16%4.73quota equa
EV +1.57%
Vantaggio +0.327%
Kelly +0.413%
Crescita +0.006%

ipotizzando la quota massima 4.80

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
19.91%21.13%21.15%22.48%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
4.004.444.454.8025.00%22.54%22.47%20.83%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Pareggio

Previsione 23.79%4.20quota equa
EV +1.12%
Vantaggio +0.263%
Kelly +0.344%
Crescita +0.004%

ipotizzando la quota massima 4.25

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
22.80%23.78%23.76%25.32%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
3.403.913.904.2529.41%25.55%25.64%23.53%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Quote dei bookmaker (57 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasaTrasferta ▼PareggioMargineAggiornamento
Unibet (NL)1.71I 58.48%NM 56.86%EV -5.87%E -3.43%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.26%EV +1.57%E +0.327%K +0.413%G +0.006%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.88%EV +1.12%E +0.263%K +0.344%G +0.004%2.8%2026-05-02 16:40
Pinnacle1.75I 57.14%NM 55.16%EV -3.67%E -2.10%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.73I 21.14%NM 20.41%EV +0.087%E +0.018%K +0.023%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.44%EV -6.02%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-02 16:30
ATG (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 56.47%EV -5.87%E -3.43%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.54%EV -0.548%E -0.117%K -0.148%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.99%EV -0.070%E -0.017%K -0.022%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-02 16:40
Svenska Spel1.71I 58.48%NM 56.47%EV -5.87%E -3.43%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.54%EV -0.548%E -0.117%K -0.148%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.99%EV -0.070%E -0.017%K -0.022%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-02 16:40
Tipico (DE)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.70%EV -9.17%E -5.56%K -14.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.91%EV -0.548%E -0.117%K -0.148%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -4.83%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 16:05
1xBet1.75I 57.14%NM 55.44%EV -3.67%E -2.10%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.95%EV -2.03%E -0.438%K -0.559%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.61%EV -2.21%E -0.538%K -0.711%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-02 16:31
LowVig.ag1.75I 57.14%NM 54.50%EV -3.67%E -2.10%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%EV -2.66%E -0.579%K -0.740%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.77%EV -8.40%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-02 16:35
BetOnline.ag1.75I 57.14%NM 54.50%EV -3.67%E -2.10%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%EV -2.66%E -0.579%K -0.740%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.77%EV -8.40%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-02 16:35
BetAnything1.75I 57.14%NM 54.50%EV -3.67%E -2.10%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%EV -2.66%E -0.579%K -0.740%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.77%EV -8.40%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-02 16:35
Unibet (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.34%EV -7.52%E -4.48%K -11.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.58%EV -2.66%E -0.579%K -0.740%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -2.45%E -0.597%K -0.790%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-02 16:41
Unibet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.49%EV -8.07%E -4.83%K -12.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -2.66%E -0.579%K -0.740%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -2.45%E -0.597%K -0.790%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 16:10
Casumo1.66I 60.24%NM 56.63%EV -8.62%E -5.19%K -13.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -2.66%E -0.579%K -0.740%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -2.45%E -0.597%K -0.790%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 16:10
betPARX1.66I 60.24%NM 56.63%EV -8.62%E -5.19%K -13.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -2.66%E -0.579%K -0.740%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -2.45%E -0.597%K -0.790%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 16:10
BetRivers1.65I 60.61%NM 56.78%EV -9.17%E -5.56%K -14.11%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -2.66%E -0.579%K -0.740%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -2.45%E -0.597%K -0.790%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 16:10
FanDuel1.65I 60.61%NM 56.12%EV -9.17%E -5.56%K -14.11%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -2.66%E -0.579%K -0.740%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.74%EV -7.21%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 16:01
SportsBet1.66I 60.24%NM 55.63%EV -8.62%E -5.19%K -13.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -2.66%E -0.579%K -0.740%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -9.59%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 16:40
Bovada1.71I 58.48%NM 54.77%EV -5.87%E -3.43%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.58%EV -3.72%E -0.818%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV -9.59%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 16:28
BetUS1.71I 58.48%NM 54.77%EV -5.87%E -3.43%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.58%EV -3.72%E -0.818%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV -9.59%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 16:30
Coolbet1.73I 57.80%NM 55.04%EV -4.77%E -2.76%K -6.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -4.78%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -4.83%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-02 07:59
Bet Victor1.70I 58.82%NM 55.79%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.08%EV -4.78%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.13%EV -2.45%E -0.597%K -0.790%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 16:23
Fanatics1.71I 58.48%NM 55.33%EV -5.87%E -3.43%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.02%EV -4.78%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -4.83%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-02 16:25
DraftKings1.71I 58.48%NM 55.16%EV -5.87%E -3.43%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -4.78%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.88%EV -6.02%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 16:20
Everygame1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -4.78%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -10.78%E -2.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-02 16:20
Grosvenor1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -9.17%E -5.56%K -14.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -4.78%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -4.83%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 16:40
TABtouch1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -9.17%E -5.56%K -14.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -4.78%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -4.83%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 16:40
LeoVegas1.63I 61.35%NM 56.51%EV -10.27%E -6.30%K -16.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -4.78%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -4.83%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 16:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.63I 61.35%NM 56.51%EV -10.27%E -6.30%K -16.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -4.78%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -4.83%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 16:10
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 55.62%EV -10.82%E -6.68%K -17.46%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -4.78%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.35%EV -11.97%E -3.23%K -4.43%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-02 16:40
Marathon Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 54.94%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.99%EV -5.84%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.07%EV -7.68%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 16:31
NordicBet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.16%EV -3.67%E -2.10%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%EV -6.90%E -1.57%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -7.21%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 16:31
Betsson1.75I 57.14%NM 54.16%EV -3.67%E -2.10%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%EV -6.90%E -1.57%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -7.21%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 16:30
Coral1.73I 57.80%NM 54.77%EV -4.77%E -2.76%K -6.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%EV -6.90%E -1.57%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%EV -4.83%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 07:55
BetMGM1.74I 57.47%NM 54.30%EV -4.22%E -2.42%K -5.70%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -6.90%E -1.57%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.23%EV -7.21%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-02 07:54
Codere (IT)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.06%EV -5.87%E -3.43%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -6.90%E -1.57%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -4.83%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 07:40
Unibet (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.21%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -6.90%E -1.57%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -4.83%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 07:39
PMU (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 56.39%EV -11.37%E -7.06%K -18.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -6.90%E -1.57%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%EV -6.02%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-02 16:40
Virgin Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 56.39%EV -11.37%E -7.06%K -18.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -6.90%E -1.57%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%EV -6.02%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-02 16:40
LiveScore Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 56.39%EV -11.37%E -7.06%K -18.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -6.90%E -1.57%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%EV -6.02%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-02 16:40
PlayUp1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -5.32%E -3.09%K -7.39%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -7.95%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.99%EV -11.97%E -3.23%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.26%EV -4.77%E -2.76%K -6.53%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.68%EV -8.38%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -7.21%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 07:55
Betway1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.34%EV -8.38%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -9.59%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 16:00
888sport1.70I 58.82%NM 54.17%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.27%EV -8.38%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -10.78%E -2.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 16:35
William Hill1.70I 58.82%NM 54.17%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.27%EV -8.38%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -10.78%E -2.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 16:40
Mr Green (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.17%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.27%EV -8.38%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -10.78%E -2.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 16:35
888sport (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.17%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.27%EV -8.38%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -10.78%E -2.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 16:35
Sky Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 54.82%EV -10.82%E -6.68%K -17.46%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.51%EV -8.38%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -14.35%E -3.99%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-02 16:40
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.93%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -9.01%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -4.83%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 06:35
Betclic (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 55.75%EV -10.27%E -6.30%K -16.31%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -9.01%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 23.12%EV -6.49%E -1.65%K -2.22%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-02 16:19
PointsBet (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.47%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.79%EV -10.07%E -2.37%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.74%EV -7.21%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 08:01
Unibet (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 55.34%EV -10.27%E -6.30%K -16.31%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.23%EV -10.07%E -2.37%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.43%EV -8.40%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-02 16:20
betfred_uk1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -11.13%E -2.65%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -10.78%E -2.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-02 08:01
Bet Right1.68I 59.52%NM 54.46%EV -7.52%E -4.48%K -11.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -11.13%E -2.65%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.76%EV -8.40%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-02 08:01
NetBet (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 55.46%EV -13.03%E -8.24%K -22.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.86%EV -11.13%E -2.65%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.68%EV -11.97%E -3.23%K -4.43%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-02 16:40
Winamax (DE)1.66I 60.24%NM 54.95%EV -8.62%E -5.19%K -13.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -13.24%E -3.23%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -4.83%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-02 07:39
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 53.85%EV -8.07%E -4.83%K -12.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -15.36%E -3.84%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -9.59%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-02 07:50
Winamax (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 54.63%EV -9.72%E -5.93%K -15.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -15.36%E -3.84%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.97%EV -7.21%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-02 07:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 53.15%EV -10.82%E -6.68%K -17.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.53%EV -15.36%E -3.84%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.32%EV -19.10%E -5.62%K -7.96%G +0.000%16.1%2026-05-02 16:40
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (6)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggioMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.14%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.76%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%1.2%2026-05-02 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.14%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.76%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%1.2%2026-05-02 16:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.14%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.76%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%1.2%2026-05-02 16:29
Matchbook1.76I 56.82%NM 56.14%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.76%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%1.2%2026-05-02 16:20
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 56.38%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.37%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.25%3.1%2026-05-02 05:16
Smarkets1.74I 57.47%NM 55.63%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.17%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.20%3.3%2026-05-02 16:40