Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 3.00
assuming max odds 2.50
assuming max odds 3.63
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fortuna Sittard (Local): 34.03%; NAC Breda (Visit): 38.87%; Draw: 27.10%. For Fortuna Sittard (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.94. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.09%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.60%EV +2.09%E +0.695%K +1.04%G +0.022% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 40.24%EV -5.54%E -2.28%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.16%EV -2.44%E -0.678%K -0.939%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.84%EV +0.384%E +0.130%K +0.197%G +0.001% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.87%EV -5.54%E -2.28%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.29%EV -3.80%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80%EV +0.384%E +0.130%K +0.197%G +0.001% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.32%EV -6.71%E -2.79%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.88%EV -2.44%E -0.678%K -0.939%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.82%EV -1.32%E -0.454%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.99%EV -7.48%E -3.14%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -5.15%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -1.32%E -0.454%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.29%EV -8.65%E -3.68%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -5.15%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.68%EV -2.00%E -0.694%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -8.65%E -3.68%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.56%EV -2.00%E -0.694%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.25%EV -9.43%E -4.05%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.16%EV -2.34%E -0.815%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.65%EV -6.71%E -2.79%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -5.15%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-12 09:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.20%EV -3.02%E -1.06%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.76%EV -7.48%E -3.14%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.04%EV -5.15%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-12 09:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.79%EV -3.02%E -1.06%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.11%EV -9.43%E -4.05%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-12 09:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.77%EV -3.02%E -1.06%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.92%EV -6.71%E -2.79%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -10.57%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-12 09:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -3.02%E -1.06%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -10.59%E -4.61%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.15%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-12 09:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.61%EV -3.02%E -1.06%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.06%EV -9.82%E -4.23%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.61%EV -3.02%E -1.06%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.06%EV -9.82%E -4.23%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.83I 35.34%NM 33.90%EV -3.70%E -1.31%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.69%EV -3.60%E -1.45%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.41%EV -5.15%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-12 09:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.59%EV -4.72%E -1.69%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.74%EV -2.82%E -1.13%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.68%EV -1.63%E -0.449%K -0.620%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.98%EV -4.72%E -1.69%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.83%EV -4.76%E -1.94%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -5.15%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-12 09:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.72%E -1.69%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -6.71%E -2.79%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -2.44%E -0.678%K -0.939%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-12 09:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -4.72%E -1.69%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -6.71%E -2.79%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-12 09:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -4.72%E -1.69%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -6.71%E -2.79%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-12 09:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV -4.72%E -1.69%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.32%EV -7.87%E -3.32%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-12 09:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -4.72%E -1.69%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.24%EV -11.37%E -4.99%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-12 09:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -4.72%E -1.69%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.87%EV -10.59%E -4.61%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.38%EV -9.22%E -2.75%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -4.72%E -1.69%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.08%EV -11.37%E -4.99%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.28%EV -9.22%E -2.75%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -4.72%E -1.69%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.08%EV -11.37%E -4.99%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.28%EV -9.22%E -2.75%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV -4.72%E -1.69%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.40%EV -12.54%E -5.57%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.13%EV -9.22%E -2.75%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-12 09:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.17%EV -5.40%E -1.94%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.30%EV -3.60%E -1.45%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.53%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.65%EV -6.42%E -2.33%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.89%EV -4.76%E -1.94%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.47%EV -2.44%E -0.678%K -0.939%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 09:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.42%E -2.33%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.74%EV -4.76%E -1.94%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.74%EV -3.80%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -6.42%E -2.33%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.45%EV -4.76%E -1.94%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-12 09:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -6.42%E -2.33%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.45%EV -4.76%E -1.94%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-12 09:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -6.42%E -2.33%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -6.71%E -2.79%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -5.15%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-12 09:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.98%EV -6.42%E -2.33%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.94%EV -6.71%E -2.79%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-12 09:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.90%EV -6.42%E -2.33%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 38.68%EV -6.32%E -2.62%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-12 09:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -6.42%E -2.33%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -8.65%E -3.68%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -5.15%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-12 09:39 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -6.42%E -2.33%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -8.65%E -3.68%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -5.15%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-12 09:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.23%EV -6.76%E -2.47%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.59%EV -5.54%E -2.28%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.73I 36.63%NM 34.39%EV -7.10%E -2.60%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.79%EV -5.93%E -2.45%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -5.15%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 33.39%EV -7.44%E -2.74%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.49%EV -10.59%E -4.61%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -9.22%E -2.75%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-12 09:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -8.12%E -3.01%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.30%EV -5.15%E -2.11%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -8.12%E -3.01%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.30%EV -5.15%E -2.11%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -8.12%E -3.01%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -6.71%E -2.79%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-12 09:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -8.12%E -3.01%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -6.71%E -2.79%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-12 09:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -8.12%E -3.01%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -7.48%E -3.14%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.57%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -8.12%E -3.01%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -7.48%E -3.14%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.57%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -8.12%E -3.01%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -7.48%E -3.14%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.57%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -8.12%E -3.01%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -7.48%E -3.14%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.57%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.70%EV -8.12%E -3.01%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.72%EV -8.65%E -3.68%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -10.57%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -8.12%E -3.01%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -10.59%E -4.61%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -10.57%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-04-12 09:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.40%EV -9.82%E -3.71%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.79%EV -8.65%E -3.68%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-12 09:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.87%EV -10.50%E -3.99%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -10.59%E -4.61%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -11.93%E -3.67%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-12 09:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 32.55%EV -10.50%E -3.99%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 38.91%EV -14.48%E -6.58%K -12.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.54%EV -18.70%E -6.23%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 16.8% | 2026-04-12 09:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -11.53%E -4.43%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -10.59%E -4.61%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.27%EV -13.23%E -5.19%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 38.84%EV -12.54%E -5.57%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.89%EV -11.93%E -3.67%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-04-12 09:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 34.95%EV -14.25%E -5.65%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 37.96%EV -9.82%E -4.23%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.10%EV -11.93%E -3.67%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.55% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 39.06% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.39% | 0.0% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.70% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.97% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.33% | 0.2% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.70% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.97% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.33% | 0.2% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.85% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.88% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.27% | 0.5% | 2026-04-12 09:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.93% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.74% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.33% | 1.6% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.63% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.42% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.94% | 4.0% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |