La escuela de los momios

Fortuna Sittard v NAC Breda

Inicio: 2026-04-12 10:15 UTC

Final: Fortuna Sittard 1–1 NAC Breda

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Fortuna Sittard (Local)

Predicción 34.03%2.94momio equitativo
EV +2.09%
Ventaja +0.695%
Kelly +1.04%
Crecimiento +0.022%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.46%33.93%34.01%34.95%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.522.772.753.0039.68%36.10%36.36%33.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

NAC Breda (Visitante)

Predicción 38.87%2.57momio equitativo
EV -2.82%
Ventaja -1.13%
Kelly -1.88%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.96%38.98%38.87%40.58%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.202.372.382.5045.45%42.17%42.02%40.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.10%3.69momio equitativo
EV -1.63%
Ventaja -0.449%
Kelly -0.620%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.63

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.41%27.10%27.12%28.54%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.423.453.6333.33%29.24%28.99%27.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)3.00I 33.33%NM 32.60%EV +2.09%E +0.695%K +1.04%G +0.022%2.43I 41.15%NM 40.24%EV -5.54%E -2.28%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.16%EV -2.44%E -0.678%K -0.939%G +0.000%2.3%2026-04-12 10:00
Svenska Spel2.95I 33.90%NM 32.84%EV +0.384%E +0.130%K +0.197%G +0.001%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.87%EV -5.54%E -2.28%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.29%EV -3.80%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-12 10:00
ATG (SE)2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80%EV +0.384%E +0.130%K +0.197%G +0.001%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.32%EV -6.71%E -2.79%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.88%EV -2.44%E -0.678%K -0.939%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-12 10:00
Unibet (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.82%EV -1.32%E -0.454%K -0.693%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.99%EV -7.48%E -3.14%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -5.15%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-12 10:00
Unibet2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -1.32%E -0.454%K -0.693%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.29%EV -8.65%E -3.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -5.15%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-12 10:00
Casumo2.88I 34.72%NM 32.68%EV -2.00%E -0.694%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -8.65%E -3.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 10:00
betPARX2.88I 34.72%NM 32.56%EV -2.00%E -0.694%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.25%EV -9.43%E -4.05%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 10:00
Coral2.87I 34.84%NM 33.16%EV -2.34%E -0.815%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.65%EV -6.71%E -2.79%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -5.15%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-12 09:40
BetMGM2.85I 35.09%NM 33.20%EV -3.02%E -1.06%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.76%EV -7.48%E -3.14%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.04%EV -5.15%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 09:40
BetRivers2.85I 35.09%NM 32.79%EV -3.02%E -1.06%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.11%EV -9.43%E -4.05%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 09:59
Tipico (DE)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.77%EV -3.02%E -1.06%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.92%EV -6.71%E -2.79%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -10.57%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 09:40
Fanatics2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -3.02%E -1.06%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -10.59%E -4.61%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.15%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 09:40
Grosvenor2.85I 35.09%NM 32.61%EV -3.02%E -1.06%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.06%EV -9.82%E -4.23%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 10:00
TABtouch2.85I 35.09%NM 32.61%EV -3.02%E -1.06%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.06%EV -9.82%E -4.23%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 10:00
1xBet2.83I 35.34%NM 33.90%EV -3.70%E -1.31%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.69%EV -3.60%E -1.45%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.41%EV -5.15%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-12 09:45
Pinnacle2.80I 35.71%NM 34.59%EV -4.72%E -1.69%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.74%EV -2.82%E -1.13%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.68%EV -1.63%E -0.449%K -0.620%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-12 10:00
DraftKings2.80I 35.71%NM 33.98%EV -4.72%E -1.69%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.83%EV -4.76%E -1.94%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -5.15%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-12 09:39
Coolbet2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.72%E -1.69%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -6.71%E -2.79%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -2.44%E -0.678%K -0.939%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 09:40
SportsBet2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -4.72%E -1.69%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -6.71%E -2.79%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 09:39
FanDuel2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -4.72%E -1.69%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -6.71%E -2.79%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 09:39
Ladbrokes (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV -4.72%E -1.69%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.32%EV -7.87%E -3.32%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 09:40
LeoVegas (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -4.72%E -1.69%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.24%EV -11.37%E -4.99%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-12 09:45
LeoVegas2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -4.72%E -1.69%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.87%EV -10.59%E -4.61%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.38%EV -9.22%E -2.75%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-12 10:00
LiveScore Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -4.72%E -1.69%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.08%EV -11.37%E -4.99%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.28%EV -9.22%E -2.75%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-12 10:00
Virgin Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -4.72%E -1.69%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.08%EV -11.37%E -4.99%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.28%EV -9.22%E -2.75%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-12 10:00
PMU (FR)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV -4.72%E -1.69%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.40%EV -12.54%E -5.57%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.13%EV -9.22%E -2.75%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-12 09:39
Betsson2.78I 35.97%NM 34.17%EV -5.40%E -1.94%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.30%EV -3.60%E -1.45%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.53%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 10:00
Bet Victor2.75I 36.36%NM 34.65%EV -6.42%E -2.33%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.89%EV -4.76%E -1.94%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.47%EV -2.44%E -0.678%K -0.939%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 09:44
NordicBet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.42%E -2.33%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.74%EV -4.76%E -1.94%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.74%EV -3.80%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 10:00
Codere (IT)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -6.42%E -2.33%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.45%EV -4.76%E -1.94%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 09:45
Unibet (UK)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -6.42%E -2.33%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.45%EV -4.76%E -1.94%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 09:44
Betr (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -6.42%E -2.33%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -6.71%E -2.79%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -5.15%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 09:40
Everygame2.75I 36.36%NM 33.98%EV -6.42%E -2.33%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.94%EV -6.71%E -2.79%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 09:45
Marathon Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 33.90%EV -6.42%E -2.33%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.68%EV -6.32%E -2.62%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 09:45
Bet Right2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -6.42%E -2.33%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -8.65%E -3.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -5.15%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-12 09:39
PointsBet (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -6.42%E -2.33%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -8.65%E -3.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -5.15%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-12 09:40
BetAnything2.74I 36.50%NM 34.23%EV -6.76%E -2.47%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.59%EV -5.54%E -2.28%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 10:00
BetUS2.73I 36.63%NM 34.39%EV -7.10%E -2.60%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.79%EV -5.93%E -2.45%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -5.15%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 10:00
Betclic (FR)2.72I 36.76%NM 33.39%EV -7.44%E -2.74%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.49%EV -10.59%E -4.61%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -9.22%E -2.75%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 09:59
LowVig.ag2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -8.12%E -3.01%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.30%EV -5.15%E -2.11%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 10:00
BetOnline.ag2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -8.12%E -3.01%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.30%EV -5.15%E -2.11%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 10:00
Betway2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -8.12%E -3.01%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -6.71%E -2.79%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-12 09:40
PlayUp2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -8.12%E -3.01%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -6.71%E -2.79%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-12 09:40
888sport2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -8.12%E -3.01%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -7.48%E -3.14%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.57%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-12 10:00
William Hill2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -8.12%E -3.01%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -7.48%E -3.14%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.57%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-12 10:00
888sport (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -8.12%E -3.01%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -7.48%E -3.14%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.57%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-12 10:00
Mr Green (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -8.12%E -3.01%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -7.48%E -3.14%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.57%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-12 10:00
Unibet (FR)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.70%EV -8.12%E -3.01%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.72%EV -8.65%E -3.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -10.57%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-12 10:00
Paddy Power2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -8.12%E -3.01%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -10.59%E -4.61%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -10.57%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-12 09:40
Winamax (DE)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.40%EV -9.82%E -3.71%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.79%EV -8.65%E -3.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-12 09:45
Sky Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 33.87%EV -10.50%E -3.99%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -10.59%E -4.61%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -11.93%E -3.67%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-12 09:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.63I 38.02%NM 32.55%EV -10.50%E -3.99%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.91%EV -14.48%E -6.58%K -12.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.54%EV -18.70%E -6.23%K -9.35%G +0.000%16.8%2026-04-12 09:30
BoyleSports2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -11.53%E -4.43%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -10.59%E -4.61%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-12 10:00
Winamax (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 34.27%EV -13.23%E -5.19%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.84%EV -12.54%E -5.57%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.89%EV -11.93%E -3.67%K -5.30%G +0.000%14.4%2026-04-12 09:45
NetBet (FR)2.52I 39.68%NM 34.95%EV -14.25%E -5.65%K -9.37%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 37.96%EV -9.82%E -4.23%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.10%EV -11.93%E -3.67%K -5.30%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-12 10:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.98I 33.56%NM 33.55%2.56I 39.06%NM 39.06%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.39%0.0%2026-04-12 10:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.96I 33.78%NM 33.70%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.97%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.33%0.2%2026-04-12 10:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.96I 33.78%NM 33.70%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.97%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.33%0.2%2026-04-12 10:00
Matchbook2.94I 34.01%NM 33.85%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.88%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.27%0.5%2026-04-12 09:45
Smarkets2.90I 34.48%NM 33.93%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.74%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.33%1.6%2026-04-12 10:00
Kalshi2.86I 34.97%NM 33.63%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.42%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.94%4.0%2026-04-12 10:00