Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Utrecht v Willem II

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 10:16 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Utrecht (Local)

Prediction 62.11%1.61fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -2.40%
Kelly -6.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.70%62.09%62.01%63.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.501.501.5571.43%66.82%66.67%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Willem II (Visit)

Prediction 17.06%5.86fair odd
EV +6.09%
Edge +0.979%
Kelly +1.17%
Growth +0.071%

assuming max odds 6.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.42%17.09%17.13%18.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.465.506.2220.41%18.30%18.18%16.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.83%4.80fair odd
EV -0.011%
Edge -0.002%
Kelly -0.003%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.39%20.82%20.85%22.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.434.404.8025.00%22.59%22.73%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Utrecht (Local): 62.11%; Willem II (Visit): 17.06%; Draw: 20.83%. For Willem II (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.86. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.22, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.09%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.08%EV -5.59%E -3.68%K -10.75%G +0.000%6.22I 16.08%NM 15.42%EV +6.09%E +0.979%K +1.17%G +0.071%4.46I 22.42%NM 21.50%EV -7.09%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-11 10:09
Pinnacle🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.24%EV -3.72%E -2.40%K -6.77%G +0.000%6.02I 16.61%NM 16.03%EV +2.68%E +0.444%K +0.533%G +0.014%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.73%EV -7.51%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-11 10:10
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.98%EV -5.59%E -3.68%K -10.75%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.11%EV -0.224%E -0.038%K -0.046%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -10.43%E -2.42%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-11 10:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.77%EV -4.35%E -2.82%K -8.05%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.67%EV -1.08%E -0.186%K -0.224%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.57%EV -2.09%E -0.446%K -0.566%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-11 09:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.77%EV -4.35%E -2.82%K -8.05%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.67%EV -1.08%E -0.186%K -0.224%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.57%EV -2.09%E -0.446%K -0.566%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-11 09:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.23%EV -6.21%E -4.11%K -12.17%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.46%EV -1.08%E -0.186%K -0.224%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.31%EV -2.09%E -0.446%K -0.566%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-11 09:39
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.82%EV -6.83%E -4.55%K -13.66%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.25%EV -1.08%E -0.186%K -0.224%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV -6.26%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-11 09:30
Casumo🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.67%EV -7.45%E -5.00%K -15.21%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.10%EV -1.08%E -0.186%K -0.224%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -8.34%E -1.90%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 09:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.67%EV -7.45%E -5.00%K -15.21%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.10%EV -1.08%E -0.186%K -0.224%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -8.34%E -1.90%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 09:30
betPARX🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.67%EV -7.45%E -5.00%K -15.21%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.10%EV -1.08%E -0.186%K -0.224%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -8.34%E -1.90%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 09:28
betano_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.56%EV -6.83%E -4.55%K -13.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.58%EV -1.93%E -0.336%K -0.406%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.86%EV -0.011%E -0.002%K -0.003%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-11 10:08
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.56%EV -6.83%E -4.55%K -13.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.58%EV -1.93%E -0.336%K -0.406%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.86%EV -0.011%E -0.002%K -0.003%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-11 10:10
DraftKings🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.97%EV -4.97%E -3.25%K -9.37%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.49%EV -1.93%E -0.336%K -0.406%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.55%EV -8.34%E -1.90%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-11 09:49
Bovada🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.81%EV -5.59%E -3.68%K -10.75%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.34%EV -1.93%E -0.336%K -0.406%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.85%EV -10.43%E -2.42%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-11 09:54
BetUS🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.81%EV -5.59%E -3.68%K -10.75%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.34%EV -1.93%E -0.336%K -0.406%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.85%EV -10.43%E -2.42%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-11 09:54
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.65%EV -5.59%E -3.68%K -10.75%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -1.93%E -0.336%K -0.406%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -11.47%E -2.70%K -3.53%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-11 10:09
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.83%E -4.55%K -13.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -1.93%E -0.336%K -0.406%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -9.80%E -2.26%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-11 09:49
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.66%EV -8.07%E -5.45%K -16.82%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.27%EV -2.78%E -0.488%K -0.592%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.08%EV -8.34%E -1.90%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-11 09:49
LowVig.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.23%EV -4.97%E -3.25%K -9.37%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.85%EV -3.63%E -0.643%K -0.782%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.92%EV -5.22%E -1.15%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-11 06:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.23%EV -4.97%E -3.25%K -9.37%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.85%EV -3.63%E -0.643%K -0.782%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.92%EV -5.22%E -1.15%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-11 06:50
BetAnything🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.23%EV -4.97%E -3.25%K -9.37%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.85%EV -3.63%E -0.643%K -0.782%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.92%EV -5.22%E -1.15%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-11 06:50
SportsBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.00%EV -6.21%E -4.11%K -12.17%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.72%EV -4.49%E -0.801%K -0.976%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -8.34%E -1.90%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-11 09:49
Unibet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.32%EV -8.07%E -5.45%K -16.82%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.47%EV -4.49%E -0.801%K -0.976%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.20%EV -9.39%E -2.16%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-11 09:30
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.49%EV -4.97%E -3.25%K -9.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.38%EV -6.19%E -1.13%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV -1.05%E -0.222%K -0.281%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-11 05:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.64%EV -5.59%E -3.68%K -10.75%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.31%EV -6.19%E -1.13%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.05%EV -1.05%E -0.222%K -0.281%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-11 09:25
Coolbet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.64%EV -5.59%E -3.68%K -10.75%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.31%EV -6.19%E -1.13%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.05%EV -1.05%E -0.222%K -0.281%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-11 10:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.24%EV -5.59%E -3.68%K -10.75%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -6.19%E -1.13%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.56%EV -4.18%E -0.908%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-11 10:04
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.80%EV -4.97%E -3.25%K -9.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -6.19%E -1.13%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -6.26%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-11 10:00
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.80%EV -4.97%E -3.25%K -9.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -6.19%E -1.13%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -6.26%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-11 10:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -6.83%E -4.55%K -13.66%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.19%E -1.13%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -6.26%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 09:55
BetRivers🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.99%EV -8.69%E -5.91%K -18.50%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.57%EV -6.19%E -1.13%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.44%EV -11.47%E -2.70%K -3.53%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-11 09:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.15%EV -9.31%E -6.38%K -20.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV -6.19%E -1.13%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.35%EV -11.47%E -2.70%K -3.53%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-11 09:29
LiveScore Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.15%EV -9.31%E -6.38%K -20.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV -6.19%E -1.13%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.35%EV -11.47%E -2.70%K -3.53%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-11 09:30
TABtouch🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.31%EV -9.94%E -6.85%K -22.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -6.19%E -1.13%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.26%EV -11.47%E -2.70%K -3.53%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-11 09:30
Codere (IT)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.46%EV -6.21%E -4.11%K -12.17%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.47%EV -7.90%E -1.46%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -2.09%E -0.446%K -0.566%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-11 09:29
PMU (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.13%EV -10.56%E -7.33%K -23.99%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.57%EV -7.90%E -1.46%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -12.51%E -2.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-11 10:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.13%EV -10.56%E -7.33%K -23.99%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.57%EV -7.90%E -1.46%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -12.51%E -2.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-11 09:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -6.83%E -4.55%K -13.66%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.37%EV -8.75%E -1.64%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.66%EV -6.26%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-11 08:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.10%EV -11.18%E -7.82%K -26.00%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.76%EV -9.60%E -1.81%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.14%EV -12.51%E -2.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-11 09:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.30%EV -4.97%E -3.25%K -9.37%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.86%EV -10.46%E -1.99%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -6.26%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-11 09:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -6.83%E -4.55%K -13.66%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -10.46%E -1.99%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -6.26%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 10:04
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.71%EV -5.59%E -3.68%K -10.75%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -10.46%E -1.99%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -11.47%E -2.70%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-11 09:54
Bet Right🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.08%EV -8.07%E -5.45%K -16.82%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.50%EV -10.46%E -1.99%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -6.26%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-11 10:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.57%EV -11.18%E -7.82%K -26.00%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.54%EV -13.02%E -2.55%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.88%EV -6.26%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-11 09:50
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -6.83%E -4.55%K -13.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -6.26%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 10:05
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -6.83%E -4.55%K -13.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -12.51%E -2.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-11 06:30
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -6.83%E -4.55%K -13.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -12.51%E -2.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-11 06:30
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -6.83%E -4.55%K -13.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -12.51%E -2.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-11 09:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -6.83%E -4.55%K -13.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -12.51%E -2.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-11 06:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -6.83%E -4.55%K -13.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -12.51%E -2.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-11 06:30
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -6.83%E -4.55%K -13.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -16.68%E -4.17%K -5.56%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-11 09:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.83%EV -8.69%E -5.91%K -18.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -12.51%E -2.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-11 10:04
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.32%EV -10.56%E -7.33%K -23.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.66%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.02%EV -12.51%E -2.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-11 09:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.01%EV -8.69%E -5.91%K -18.50%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.60%EV -16.43%E -3.35%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -2.09%E -0.446%K -0.566%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-11 09:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 61.91%EV -9.31%E -6.38%K -20.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.45%EV -16.43%E -3.35%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -4.18%E -0.908%K -1.16%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-11 09:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.06%EV -13.04%E -9.32%K -32.60%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.73%EV -16.43%E -3.35%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.21%EV -10.43%E -2.42%K -3.16%G +0.000%15.1%2026-10-11 09:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.71%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.08%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.21%0.3%2026-10-11 10:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.85%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.02%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.13%0.7%2026-10-11 10:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.85%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.02%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.13%0.7%2026-10-11 10:09
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.42%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.01%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%0.8%2026-10-11 10:10
Kalshi◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.40%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.82%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.78%1.1%2026-10-11 10:00
Smarkets◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.57%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.94%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.49%1.2%2026-10-11 10:10