A Escola das Odds

Excelsior v NEC Nijmegen

Início: 2026-04-04 19:00 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

56 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Excelsior (Local)

Previsão 25.91%3.86odd justa
EV +2.35%
Vantagem +0.596%
Kelly +0.798%
Crescimento +0.019%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.95

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
24.00%25.83%25.89%27.16%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
3.303.643.653.9530.30%27.44%27.40%25.32%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

NEC Nijmegen (Visitante)

Previsão 50.03%2.00odd justa
EV -2.45%
Vantagem -1.26%
Kelly -2.58%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.95

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
48.50%50.03%50.03%52.00%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.731.851.851.9557.80%53.98%54.05%51.28%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Empate

Previsão 24.06%4.16odd justa
EV -1.34%
Vantagem -0.328%
Kelly -0.433%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.10

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
23.41%24.14%24.08%25.97%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
3.303.843.904.1030.30%26.01%25.64%24.39%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (56 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Unibet (NL)3.95I 25.32%NM 24.67%EV +2.35%E +0.596%K +0.798%G +0.019%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.56%EV -5.45%E -2.88%K -6.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.77%EV -1.34%E -0.328%K -0.433%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-04 18:30
Svenska Spel3.90I 25.64%NM 24.76%EV +1.06%E +0.271%K +0.365%G +0.004%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.10%EV -5.45%E -2.88%K -6.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV -3.75%E -0.937%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-04 18:30
ATG (SE)3.90I 25.64%NM 24.76%EV +1.06%E +0.271%K +0.365%G +0.004%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.10%EV -5.45%E -2.88%K -6.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV -3.75%E -0.937%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-04 18:30
Tipico (DE)3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV +1.06%E +0.271%K +0.365%G +0.004%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 18:34
1xBet3.89I 25.71%NM 24.94%EV +0.799%E +0.205%K +0.276%G +0.002%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.80%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%EV -3.75%E -0.937%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-04 18:54
Unibet (SE)3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -0.237%E -0.062%K -0.083%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.31%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.03%EV -4.95%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-04 18:30
LowVig.ag3.80I 26.32%NM 25.26%EV -1.53%E -0.403%K -0.548%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.33%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.41%EV -1.34%E -0.328%K -0.433%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 18:34
BetOnline.ag3.80I 26.32%NM 25.26%EV -1.53%E -0.403%K -0.548%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.33%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.41%EV -1.34%E -0.328%K -0.433%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 18:34
Unibet3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -1.53%E -0.403%K -0.548%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.15%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.95%EV -4.95%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-04 18:30
FanDuel3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -1.53%E -0.403%K -0.548%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.26%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 18:54
Casumo3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -1.53%E -0.403%K -0.548%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.26%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 18:30
betPARX3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -1.53%E -0.403%K -0.548%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.26%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 18:30
Pinnacle3.79I 26.39%NM 25.51%EV -1.79%E -0.473%K -0.642%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.62%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.87%EV -2.55%E -0.629%K -0.835%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-04 18:55
BetRivers3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -2.83%E -0.754%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 18:30
SportsBet3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -2.83%E -0.754%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 18:55
Grosvenor3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -2.83%E -0.754%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.23%EV -8.95%E -4.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 18:30
TABtouch3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -2.83%E -0.754%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.23%EV -8.95%E -4.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 18:30
NordicBet3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.14%EV -4.95%E -2.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.12%EV -4.95%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-04 18:34
Betsson3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.14%EV -4.95%E -2.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.12%EV -4.95%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-04 18:35
Bet Victor3.70I 27.03%NM 25.73%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.41%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-04 18:55
Bovada3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.79%EV -4.95%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 18:48
LeoVegas3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.93%EV -7.36%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 18:30
LeoVegas (SE)3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.93%EV -7.36%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 18:30
Marathon Bet3.68I 27.17%NM 25.33%EV -4.64%E -1.26%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.28%EV -7.60%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 18:53
DraftKings3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -5.42%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.36%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -4.95%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 18:34
Everygame3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -5.42%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.47%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 18:34
PMU (FR)3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -5.42%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.12%EV -10.96%E -6.15%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-04 18:34
Virgin Bet3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -5.42%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.12%EV -10.96%E -6.15%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-04 18:30
LiveScore Bet3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -5.42%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.12%EV -10.96%E -6.15%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-04 18:30
Coolbet3.60I 27.78%NM 26.49%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.67%EV -3.95%E -2.06%K -4.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -3.75%E -0.937%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-04 12:34
Fanatics3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.80%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -3.75%E -0.937%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 18:34
Coral3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -2.45%E -1.26%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -9.77%E -2.60%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-04 12:30
Unibet (UK)3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.50%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-04 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.02%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -9.77%E -2.60%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 12:30
BetMGM3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.02%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -9.77%E -2.60%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 12:30
Betway3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -13.37%E -3.72%K -5.14%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 18:44
888sport3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -13.37%E -3.72%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 18:55
William Hill3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -13.37%E -3.72%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 18:54
Mr Green (SE)3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -13.37%E -3.72%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 18:55
888sport (SE)3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -13.37%E -3.72%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 18:54
Paddy Power3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.34%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -10.97%E -2.96%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-04 18:40
Codere (IT)3.55I 28.17%NM 26.53%EV -8.01%E -2.26%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 14:00
BetUS3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -8.01%E -2.26%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.45%EV -4.95%E -2.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 12:15
BetAnything3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -8.01%E -2.26%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.45%EV -4.95%E -2.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 12:30
Betr (AU)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -9.31%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -4.95%E -2.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 12:34
PointsBet (AU)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -9.31%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -5.95%E -3.17%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 12:34
Bet Right3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -9.31%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.37%EV -5.95%E -3.17%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -7.36%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 12:34
PlayUp3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -9.31%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.50%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.05%EV -7.36%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 18:34
Sky Bet3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.31%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -13.37%E -3.72%K -5.14%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 18:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.50I 28.57%NM 24.49%EV -9.31%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 49.54%EV -13.46%E -7.78%K -18.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.97%EV -20.59%E -6.24%K -8.95%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-04 18:45
Betclic (FR)3.43I 29.15%NM 26.00%EV -11.12%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.10%EV -10.96%E -6.15%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.91%EV -10.25%E -2.75%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-04 18:35
NetBet (FR)3.40I 29.41%NM 25.81%EV -11.90%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.15%EV -12.46%E -7.12%K -16.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.04%EV -12.17%E -3.33%K -4.59%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-04 18:54
Winamax (DE)3.35I 29.85%NM 27.01%EV -13.19%E -3.94%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.18%EV -7.95%E -4.32%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.81%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-04 13:59
Unibet (FR)3.35I 29.85%NM 26.17%EV -13.19%E -3.94%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 49.81%EV -11.96%E -6.79%K -15.73%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.02%EV -12.17%E -3.33%K -4.59%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-04 18:34
Winamax (FR)3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -14.49%E -4.39%K -6.30%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.25%EV -8.95%E -4.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.59%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-04 13:59
BoyleSports3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -14.49%E -4.39%K -6.30%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.53%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-04 12:29
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.38%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-04-04 18:55
Smarkets4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-04-04 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-04-04 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-04-04 18:55
Matchbook4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-04-04 18:55
Kalshi3.85I 25.97%NM 25.46%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.04%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.50%2.0%2026-04-04 18:20