Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Excelsior v NEC Nijmegen

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-04 19:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Excelsior (Local)

Prévision 25.91%3.86cote équitable
EV +2.35%
Avantage +0.596%
Kelly +0.798%
Croissance +0.019%

avec la cote maximale 3.95

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.00%25.83%25.89%27.16%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.303.643.653.9530.30%27.44%27.40%25.32%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

NEC Nijmegen (Visiteur)

Prévision 50.03%2.00cote équitable
EV -2.45%
Avantage -1.26%
Kelly -2.58%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.95

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
48.50%50.03%50.03%52.00%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.731.851.851.9557.80%53.98%54.05%51.28%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 24.06%4.16cote équitable
EV -1.34%
Avantage -0.328%
Kelly -0.433%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.41%24.14%24.08%25.97%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.303.843.904.1030.30%26.01%25.64%24.39%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Excelsior (Local) : 25.91% ; NEC Nijmegen (Visiteur) : 50.03% ; Match nul : 24.06%. Pour Excelsior (Local), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 3.86. 5 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 3.95, soit une espérance positive de +2.35%.

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Unibet (NL)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.67%EV +2.35%E +0.596%K +0.798%G +0.019%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.56%EV -5.45%E -2.88%K -6.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.77%EV -1.34%E -0.328%K -0.433%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-04 18:30
Svenska Spel🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.76%EV +1.06%E +0.271%K +0.365%G +0.004%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.10%EV -5.45%E -2.88%K -6.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV -3.75%E -0.937%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-04 18:30
ATG (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.76%EV +1.06%E +0.271%K +0.365%G +0.004%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.10%EV -5.45%E -2.88%K -6.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV -3.75%E -0.937%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-04 18:30
Tipico (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV +1.06%E +0.271%K +0.365%G +0.004%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 18:34
1xBet🎯3.89I 25.71%NM 24.94%EV +0.799%E +0.205%K +0.276%G +0.002%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.80%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%EV -3.75%E -0.937%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-04 18:54
Unibet (SE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -0.237%E -0.062%K -0.083%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.31%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.03%EV -4.95%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-04 18:30
LowVig.ag🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.26%EV -1.53%E -0.403%K -0.548%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.33%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.41%EV -1.34%E -0.328%K -0.433%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 18:34
BetOnline.ag🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.26%EV -1.53%E -0.403%K -0.548%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.33%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.41%EV -1.34%E -0.328%K -0.433%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 18:34
Unibet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -1.53%E -0.403%K -0.548%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.15%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.95%EV -4.95%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-04 18:30
FanDuel🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -1.53%E -0.403%K -0.548%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.26%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 18:54
Casumo🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -1.53%E -0.403%K -0.548%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.26%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 18:30
betPARX🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -1.53%E -0.403%K -0.548%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.26%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 18:30
Pinnacle🎯3.79I 26.39%NM 25.51%EV -1.79%E -0.473%K -0.642%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.62%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.87%EV -2.55%E -0.629%K -0.835%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-04 18:55
BetRivers🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -2.83%E -0.754%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 18:30
SportsBet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -2.83%E -0.754%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 18:55
Grosvenor🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -2.83%E -0.754%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.23%EV -8.95%E -4.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 18:30
TABtouch🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -2.83%E -0.754%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.23%EV -8.95%E -4.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 18:30
NordicBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.14%EV -4.95%E -2.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.12%EV -4.95%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-04 18:34
Betsson🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.14%EV -4.95%E -2.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.12%EV -4.95%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-04 18:35
Bet Victor🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.73%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.41%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-04 18:55
Bovada🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.79%EV -4.95%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 18:48
LeoVegas🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.93%EV -7.36%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 18:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.93%EV -7.36%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 18:30
Marathon Bet🎯3.68I 27.17%NM 25.33%EV -4.64%E -1.26%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.28%EV -7.60%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 18:53
DraftKings🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -5.42%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.36%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -4.95%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 18:34
Everygame🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -5.42%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.47%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 18:34
PMU (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -5.42%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.12%EV -10.96%E -6.15%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-04 18:34
Virgin Bet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -5.42%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.12%EV -10.96%E -6.15%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-04 18:30
LiveScore Bet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -5.42%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.12%EV -10.96%E -6.15%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-04 18:30
Coolbet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.49%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.67%EV -3.95%E -2.06%K -4.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -3.75%E -0.937%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-04 12:34
Fanatics🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.80%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -3.75%E -0.937%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 18:34
Coral🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -2.45%E -1.26%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -9.77%E -2.60%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-04 12:30
Unibet (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.50%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-04 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.02%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -9.77%E -2.60%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 12:30
BetMGM🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.02%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -9.77%E -2.60%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 12:30
Betway🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -13.37%E -3.72%K -5.14%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 18:44
888sport🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -13.37%E -3.72%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 18:55
William Hill🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -13.37%E -3.72%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 18:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -13.37%E -3.72%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -13.37%E -3.72%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 18:54
Paddy Power🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.34%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -10.97%E -2.96%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-04 18:40
Codere (IT)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.53%EV -8.01%E -2.26%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 14:00
BetUS🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -8.01%E -2.26%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.45%EV -4.95%E -2.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 12:15
BetAnything🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -8.01%E -2.26%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.45%EV -4.95%E -2.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 12:30
Betr (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -9.31%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -4.95%E -2.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 12:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -9.31%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -5.95%E -3.17%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 12:34
Bet Right🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -9.31%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.37%EV -5.95%E -3.17%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -7.36%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 12:34
PlayUp🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -9.31%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.50%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.05%EV -7.36%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 18:34
Sky Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.31%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -13.37%E -3.72%K -5.14%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 18:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 24.49%EV -9.31%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 49.54%EV -13.46%E -7.78%K -18.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.97%EV -20.59%E -6.24%K -8.95%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-04 18:45
Betclic (FR)🎯3.43I 29.15%NM 26.00%EV -11.12%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.10%EV -10.96%E -6.15%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.91%EV -10.25%E -2.75%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-04 18:35
NetBet (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.81%EV -11.90%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.15%EV -12.46%E -7.12%K -16.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.04%EV -12.17%E -3.33%K -4.59%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-04 18:54
Winamax (DE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.01%EV -13.19%E -3.94%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.18%EV -7.95%E -4.32%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.81%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-04 13:59
Unibet (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.17%EV -13.19%E -3.94%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 49.81%EV -11.96%E -6.79%K -15.73%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.02%EV -12.17%E -3.33%K -4.59%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-04 18:34
Winamax (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -14.49%E -4.39%K -6.30%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.25%EV -8.95%E -4.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.59%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-04 13:59
BoyleSports🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -14.49%E -4.39%K -6.30%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.53%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-04 12:29
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.38%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-04-04 18:55
Smarkets4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-04-04 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-04-04 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-04-04 18:55
Matchbook4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-04-04 18:55
Kalshi3.85I 25.97%NM 25.46%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.04%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.50%2.0%2026-04-04 18:20