La escuela de los momios

Excelsior v NEC Nijmegen

Inicio: 2026-04-04 19:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Excelsior (Local)

Predicción 25.91%3.86momio equitativo
EV +2.35%
Ventaja +0.596%
Kelly +0.798%
Crecimiento +0.019%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.00%25.83%25.89%27.16%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.643.653.9530.30%27.44%27.40%25.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

NEC Nijmegen (Visitante)

Predicción 50.03%2.00momio equitativo
EV -2.45%
Ventaja -1.26%
Kelly -2.58%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.50%50.03%50.03%52.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.731.851.851.9557.80%53.98%54.05%51.28%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.06%4.16momio equitativo
EV -1.34%
Ventaja -0.328%
Kelly -0.433%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.41%24.14%24.08%25.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.843.904.1030.30%26.01%25.64%24.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)3.95I 25.32%NM 24.67%EV +2.35%E +0.596%K +0.798%G +0.019%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.56%EV -5.45%E -2.88%K -6.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.77%EV -1.34%E -0.328%K -0.433%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-04 18:30
Svenska Spel3.90I 25.64%NM 24.76%EV +1.06%E +0.271%K +0.365%G +0.004%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.10%EV -5.45%E -2.88%K -6.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV -3.75%E -0.937%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-04 18:30
ATG (SE)3.90I 25.64%NM 24.76%EV +1.06%E +0.271%K +0.365%G +0.004%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.10%EV -5.45%E -2.88%K -6.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV -3.75%E -0.937%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-04 18:30
Tipico (DE)3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV +1.06%E +0.271%K +0.365%G +0.004%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 18:34
1xBet3.89I 25.71%NM 24.94%EV +0.799%E +0.205%K +0.276%G +0.002%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.80%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%EV -3.75%E -0.937%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-04 18:54
Unibet (SE)3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -0.237%E -0.062%K -0.083%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.31%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.03%EV -4.95%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-04 18:30
LowVig.ag3.80I 26.32%NM 25.26%EV -1.53%E -0.403%K -0.548%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.33%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.41%EV -1.34%E -0.328%K -0.433%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 18:34
BetOnline.ag3.80I 26.32%NM 25.26%EV -1.53%E -0.403%K -0.548%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.33%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.41%EV -1.34%E -0.328%K -0.433%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 18:34
Unibet3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -1.53%E -0.403%K -0.548%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.15%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.95%EV -4.95%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-04 18:30
FanDuel3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -1.53%E -0.403%K -0.548%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.26%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 18:54
Casumo3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -1.53%E -0.403%K -0.548%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.26%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 18:30
betPARX3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -1.53%E -0.403%K -0.548%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.26%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 18:30
Pinnacle3.79I 26.39%NM 25.51%EV -1.79%E -0.473%K -0.642%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.62%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.87%EV -2.55%E -0.629%K -0.835%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-04 18:55
BetRivers3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -2.83%E -0.754%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 18:30
SportsBet3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -2.83%E -0.754%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 18:55
Grosvenor3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -2.83%E -0.754%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.23%EV -8.95%E -4.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 18:30
TABtouch3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -2.83%E -0.754%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.23%EV -8.95%E -4.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 18:30
NordicBet3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.14%EV -4.95%E -2.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.12%EV -4.95%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-04 18:34
Betsson3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.14%EV -4.95%E -2.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.12%EV -4.95%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-04 18:35
Bet Victor3.70I 27.03%NM 25.73%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.41%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-04 18:55
Bovada3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.79%EV -4.95%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 18:48
LeoVegas3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.93%EV -7.36%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 18:30
LeoVegas (SE)3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.93%EV -7.36%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 18:30
Marathon Bet3.68I 27.17%NM 25.33%EV -4.64%E -1.26%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.28%EV -7.60%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 18:53
DraftKings3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -5.42%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.36%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -4.95%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 18:34
Everygame3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -5.42%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.47%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 18:34
PMU (FR)3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -5.42%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.12%EV -10.96%E -6.15%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-04 18:34
Virgin Bet3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -5.42%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.12%EV -10.96%E -6.15%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-04 18:30
LiveScore Bet3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -5.42%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.12%EV -10.96%E -6.15%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-04 18:30
Coolbet3.60I 27.78%NM 26.49%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.67%EV -3.95%E -2.06%K -4.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -3.75%E -0.937%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-04 12:34
Fanatics3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.80%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -3.75%E -0.937%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 18:34
Coral3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -2.45%E -1.26%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -9.77%E -2.60%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-04 12:30
Unibet (UK)3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.50%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-04 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.02%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -9.77%E -2.60%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 12:30
BetMGM3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.02%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -9.77%E -2.60%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 12:30
Betway3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -13.37%E -3.72%K -5.14%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 18:44
888sport3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -13.37%E -3.72%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 18:55
William Hill3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -13.37%E -3.72%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 18:54
Mr Green (SE)3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -13.37%E -3.72%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 18:55
888sport (SE)3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -13.37%E -3.72%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 18:54
Paddy Power3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.34%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -10.97%E -2.96%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-04 18:40
Codere (IT)3.55I 28.17%NM 26.53%EV -8.01%E -2.26%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 14:00
BetUS3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -8.01%E -2.26%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.45%EV -4.95%E -2.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 12:15
BetAnything3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -8.01%E -2.26%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.45%EV -4.95%E -2.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 12:30
Betr (AU)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -9.31%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -4.95%E -2.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 12:34
PointsBet (AU)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -9.31%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -5.95%E -3.17%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -6.16%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 12:34
Bet Right3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -9.31%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.37%EV -5.95%E -3.17%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -7.36%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 12:34
PlayUp3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -9.31%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.50%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.05%EV -7.36%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 18:34
Sky Bet3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.31%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -13.37%E -3.72%K -5.14%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 18:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.50I 28.57%NM 24.49%EV -9.31%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 49.54%EV -13.46%E -7.78%K -18.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.97%EV -20.59%E -6.24%K -8.95%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-04 18:45
Betclic (FR)3.43I 29.15%NM 26.00%EV -11.12%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.10%EV -10.96%E -6.15%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.91%EV -10.25%E -2.75%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-04 18:35
NetBet (FR)3.40I 29.41%NM 25.81%EV -11.90%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.15%EV -12.46%E -7.12%K -16.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.04%EV -12.17%E -3.33%K -4.59%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-04 18:54
Winamax (DE)3.35I 29.85%NM 27.01%EV -13.19%E -3.94%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.18%EV -7.95%E -4.32%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.81%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-04 13:59
Unibet (FR)3.35I 29.85%NM 26.17%EV -13.19%E -3.94%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 49.81%EV -11.96%E -6.79%K -15.73%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.02%EV -12.17%E -3.33%K -4.59%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-04 18:34
Winamax (FR)3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -14.49%E -4.39%K -6.30%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.25%EV -8.95%E -4.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.59%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-04 13:59
BoyleSports3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -14.49%E -4.39%K -6.30%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.53%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-04 12:29
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.38%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-04-04 18:55
Smarkets4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-04-04 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-04-04 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-04-04 18:55
Matchbook4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-04-04 18:55
Kalshi3.85I 25.97%NM 25.46%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.04%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.50%2.0%2026-04-04 18:20