Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

AZ Alkmaar v NAC Breda

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 12:30 UTC

Final: AZ Alkmaar 3–3 NAC Breda

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AZ Alkmaar (Local)

Prediction 70.06%1.43fair odd
EV -4.72%
Edge -3.47%
Kelly -13.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.98%70.00%70.12%71.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.331.331.3679.37%75.43%75.19%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

NAC Breda (Visit)

Prediction 12.75%7.84fair odd
EV +8.35%
Edge +0.983%
Kelly +1.11%
Growth +0.093%

assuming max odds 8.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.40%12.78%12.67%14.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.257.317.208.5016.00%13.68%13.89%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.19%5.82fair odd
EV -0.298%
Edge -0.051%
Kelly -0.062%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.12%17.22%17.21%19.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.325.405.8022.22%18.79%18.52%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AZ Alkmaar (Local): 70.06%; NAC Breda (Visit): 12.75%; Draw: 17.19%. For NAC Breda (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.84. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.35%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 71.61%EV -4.72%E -3.47%K -13.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.46%EV +8.35%E +0.983%K +1.11%G +0.093%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.94%EV -1.16%E -0.201%K -0.244%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-17 04:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 71.61%EV -4.72%E -3.47%K -13.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.46%EV +8.35%E +0.983%K +1.11%G +0.093%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.94%EV -1.16%E -0.201%K -0.244%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-17 04:26
Unibet (NL)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.76%EV -5.42%E -4.01%K -15.47%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.40%EV +8.35%E +0.983%K +1.11%G +0.093%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.85%EV -1.16%E -0.201%K -0.244%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-17 04:25
1xBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.00%EV -5.42%E -4.01%K -15.47%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.98%EV +1.98%E +0.248%K +0.283%G +0.006%5.63I 17.76%NM 17.02%EV -3.22%E -0.572%K -0.696%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-17 08:20
Bet Victor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -8.92%E -6.86%K -29.73%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV +1.98%E +0.248%K +0.283%G +0.006%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 08:19
Betsson🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.38%EV -5.42%E -4.01%K -15.47%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 12.03%EV +0.706%E +0.089%K +0.102%G +0.001%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.59%EV -7.17%E -1.33%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 07:56
NordicBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.38%EV -5.42%E -4.01%K -15.47%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 12.03%EV +0.706%E +0.089%K +0.102%G +0.001%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.59%EV -7.17%E -1.33%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 07:56
Pinnacle🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.92%EV -5.42%E -4.01%K -15.47%G +0.000%7.81I 12.80%NM 12.26%EV -0.441%E -0.057%K -0.065%G +0.000%5.69I 17.57%NM 16.83%EV -2.19%E -0.385%K -0.467%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-17 08:16
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.90%EV -8.92%E -6.86%K -29.73%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.98%EV -0.569%E -0.073%K -0.084%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.12%EV -0.298%E -0.051%K -0.062%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 08:05
Coolbet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.44%EV -5.42%E -4.01%K -15.47%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.27%EV -1.21%E -0.156%K -0.179%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-17 07:45
PlayUp🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.56%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.94%EV -1.21%E -0.156%K -0.179%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-17 08:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.63%EV -7.52%E -5.70%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 12.11%EV -1.84%E -0.239%K -0.275%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -7.17%E -1.33%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-17 08:19
Fanatics🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.15%EV -5.42%E -4.01%K -15.47%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.22%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-17 04:26
Bovada🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 08:03
Everygame🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 08:05
BetUS🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 08:05
BetAnything🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 08:00
FanDuel🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.20%EV -8.22%E -6.27%K -26.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.36%EV -2.02%E -0.354%K -0.429%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 08:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -7.52%E -5.70%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-17 07:45
Casumo🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.01%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.57%EV -8.89%E -1.68%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-17 04:26
Unibet (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.01%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.57%EV -8.89%E -1.68%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-17 04:26
betPARX🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.01%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.57%EV -8.89%E -1.68%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-17 04:26
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.90%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -9.75%E -1.86%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-12 22:30
Unibet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.78%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -10.61%E -2.04%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 04:26
SportsBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -8.92%E -6.86%K -29.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 08:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 70.67%EV -11.72%E -9.30%K -45.08%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.87%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.46%EV -12.33%E -2.42%K -3.01%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-17 08:19
LowVig.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.50%EV -7.52%E -5.70%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.58%EV -5.67%E -0.766%K -0.886%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-17 08:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.50%EV -7.52%E -5.70%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.58%EV -5.67%E -0.766%K -0.886%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-17 08:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.57%EV -5.42%E -4.01%K -15.47%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.04%EV -8.22%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.39%EV -7.17%E -1.33%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-17 07:35
Coral🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.37%EV -4.72%E -3.47%K -13.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 07:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.37%EV -4.72%E -3.47%K -13.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 07:56
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.37%EV -4.72%E -3.47%K -13.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 07:40
DraftKings🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.37%EV -4.72%E -3.47%K -13.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 12:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.53%EV -5.42%E -4.01%K -15.47%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-17 07:35
Betway🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.84%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 08:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.78%EV -7.52%E -5.70%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.16%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.06%EV -7.17%E -1.33%K -1.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-17 07:34
Bet Right🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -7.52%E -5.70%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.46%EV -9.75%E -1.86%K -2.29%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-17 07:45
betfred_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 07:45
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 07:56
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 07:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 07:55
William Hill🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 08:10
BetRivers🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.09%EV -7.52%E -5.70%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.03%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.88%EV -12.33%E -2.42%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-17 04:25
Paddy Power🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.48%EV -9.62%E -7.46%K -33.17%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.99%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.53%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-17 08:00
TABtouch🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.84%EV -7.52%E -5.70%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-17 04:25
Grosvenor🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.84%EV -7.52%E -5.70%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-17 04:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -8.92%E -6.86%K -29.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 04:26
LeoVegas🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -8.92%E -6.86%K -29.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 04:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -8.92%E -6.86%K -29.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 04:26
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -8.92%E -6.86%K -29.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 04:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 69.25%EV -10.32%E -8.06%K -36.86%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.66%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.09%EV -15.77%E -3.22%K -4.04%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-17 04:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 67.98%EV -9.62%E -7.46%K -33.17%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.53%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.49%EV -22.65%E -5.03%K -6.47%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-17 08:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 69.59%EV -8.22%E -6.27%K -26.51%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.21%EV -12.04%E -1.75%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.20%EV -8.89%E -1.68%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-17 07:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.14%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -17.14%E -2.64%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.72%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 07:35
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.00%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -17.14%E -2.64%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.09%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-17 01:45
Sky Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.66%EV -9.62%E -7.46%K -33.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.63%EV -17.14%E -2.64%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.71%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-17 08:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 68.65%EV -8.22%E -6.27%K -26.51%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.39%EV -20.33%E -3.25%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.97%EV -8.89%E -1.68%K -2.07%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 07:36
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.37I 72.99%NM 72.07%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.48%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.3%2026-05-17 08:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.37I 72.99%NM 72.07%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.48%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.3%2026-05-17 08:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.37I 72.99%NM 72.07%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.48%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.3%2026-05-17 08:20
Matchbook1.37I 72.99%NM 72.07%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.48%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.3%2026-05-17 08:20
Kalshi1.37I 72.99%NM 71.56%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.77%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.67%2.0%2026-05-17 07:55
Smarkets1.36I 73.53%NM 72.02%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.66%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.32%2.1%2026-05-17 08:20