L’École des cotes

AZ Alkmaar v NAC Breda

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-17 12:30 UTC

Score final : AZ Alkmaar 3–3 NAC Breda

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

AZ Alkmaar (Local)

Prévision 70.06%1.43cote équitable
EV -4.72%
Avantage -3.47%
Kelly -13.10%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.36

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
67.98%70.00%70.12%71.90%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.261.331.331.3679.37%75.43%75.19%73.53%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

NAC Breda (Visiteur)

Prévision 12.75%7.84cote équitable
EV +8.35%
Avantage +0.983%
Kelly +1.11%
Croissance +0.093%

avec la cote maximale 8.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
11.40%12.78%12.67%14.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
6.257.317.208.5016.00%13.68%13.89%11.76%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 17.19%5.82cote équitable
EV -0.298%
Avantage -0.051%
Kelly -0.062%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 5.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
16.12%17.22%17.21%19.49%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.505.325.405.8022.22%18.79%18.52%17.24%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Svenska Spel1.36I 73.53%NM 71.61%EV -4.72%E -3.47%K -13.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.46%EV +8.35%E +0.983%K +1.11%G +0.093%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.94%EV -1.16%E -0.201%K -0.244%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-17 04:25
ATG (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 71.61%EV -4.72%E -3.47%K -13.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.46%EV +8.35%E +0.983%K +1.11%G +0.093%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.94%EV -1.16%E -0.201%K -0.244%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-17 04:26
Unibet (NL)1.35I 74.07%NM 71.76%EV -5.42%E -4.01%K -15.47%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.40%EV +8.35%E +0.983%K +1.11%G +0.093%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.85%EV -1.16%E -0.201%K -0.244%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-17 04:25
1xBet1.35I 74.07%NM 71.00%EV -5.42%E -4.01%K -15.47%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.98%EV +1.98%E +0.248%K +0.283%G +0.006%5.63I 17.76%NM 17.02%EV -3.22%E -0.572%K -0.696%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-17 08:20
Bet Victor1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -8.92%E -6.86%K -29.73%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV +1.98%E +0.248%K +0.283%G +0.006%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 08:19
Betsson1.35I 74.07%NM 70.38%EV -5.42%E -4.01%K -15.47%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 12.03%EV +0.706%E +0.089%K +0.102%G +0.001%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.59%EV -7.17%E -1.33%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 07:56
NordicBet1.35I 74.07%NM 70.38%EV -5.42%E -4.01%K -15.47%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 12.03%EV +0.706%E +0.089%K +0.102%G +0.001%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.59%EV -7.17%E -1.33%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 07:56
Pinnacle1.35I 74.07%NM 70.92%EV -5.42%E -4.01%K -15.47%G +0.000%7.81I 12.80%NM 12.26%EV -0.441%E -0.057%K -0.065%G +0.000%5.69I 17.57%NM 16.83%EV -2.19%E -0.385%K -0.467%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-17 08:16
Tipico (DE)1.30I 76.92%NM 71.90%EV -8.92%E -6.86%K -29.73%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.98%EV -0.569%E -0.073%K -0.084%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.12%EV -0.298%E -0.051%K -0.062%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 08:05
Coolbet1.35I 74.07%NM 70.44%EV -5.42%E -4.01%K -15.47%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.27%EV -1.21%E -0.156%K -0.179%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-17 07:45
PlayUp1.33I 75.19%NM 69.56%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.94%EV -1.21%E -0.156%K -0.179%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-17 08:00
Marathon Bet1.32I 75.76%NM 70.63%EV -7.52%E -5.70%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 12.11%EV -1.84%E -0.239%K -0.275%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -7.17%E -1.33%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-17 08:19
Fanatics1.35I 74.07%NM 70.15%EV -5.42%E -4.01%K -15.47%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.22%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-17 04:26
Bovada1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 08:03
Everygame1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 08:05
BetUS1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 08:05
BetAnything1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 08:00
FanDuel1.31I 76.34%NM 71.20%EV -8.22%E -6.27%K -26.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.36%EV -2.02%E -0.354%K -0.429%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 08:00
Betr (AU)1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -7.52%E -5.70%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-17 07:45
Casumo1.33I 75.19%NM 70.01%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.57%EV -8.89%E -1.68%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-17 04:26
Unibet (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 70.01%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.57%EV -8.89%E -1.68%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-17 04:26
betPARX1.33I 75.19%NM 70.01%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.57%EV -8.89%E -1.68%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-17 04:26
PointsBet (AU)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.90%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -9.75%E -1.86%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-12 22:30
Unibet1.33I 75.19%NM 69.78%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -10.61%E -2.04%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 04:26
SportsBet1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -8.92%E -6.86%K -29.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 08:00
NetBet (FR)1.26I 79.37%NM 70.67%EV -11.72%E -9.30%K -45.08%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.87%EV -4.39%E -0.586%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.46%EV -12.33%E -2.42%K -3.01%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-17 08:19
LowVig.ag1.32I 75.76%NM 70.50%EV -7.52%E -5.70%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.58%EV -5.67%E -0.766%K -0.886%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-17 08:10
BetOnline.ag1.32I 75.76%NM 70.50%EV -7.52%E -5.70%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.58%EV -5.67%E -0.766%K -0.886%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-17 08:10
Codere (IT)1.35I 74.07%NM 69.57%EV -5.42%E -4.01%K -15.47%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.04%EV -8.22%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.39%EV -7.17%E -1.33%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-17 07:35
Coral1.36I 73.53%NM 69.37%EV -4.72%E -3.47%K -13.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 07:55
Ladbrokes (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 69.37%EV -4.72%E -3.47%K -13.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 07:56
BetMGM1.36I 73.53%NM 69.37%EV -4.72%E -3.47%K -13.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 07:40
DraftKings1.36I 73.53%NM 69.37%EV -4.72%E -3.47%K -13.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 12:35
Unibet (UK)1.35I 74.07%NM 69.53%EV -5.42%E -4.01%K -15.47%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-17 07:35
Betway1.33I 75.19%NM 69.84%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 08:00
Betclic (FR)1.32I 75.76%NM 69.78%EV -7.52%E -5.70%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.16%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.06%EV -7.17%E -1.33%K -1.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-17 07:34
Bet Right1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -7.52%E -5.70%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.46%EV -9.75%E -1.86%K -2.29%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-17 07:45
betfred_uk1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 07:45
888sport1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 07:56
Mr Green (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 07:55
888sport (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 07:55
William Hill1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 08:10
BetRivers1.32I 75.76%NM 69.09%EV -7.52%E -5.70%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.03%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.88%EV -12.33%E -2.42%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-17 04:25
Paddy Power1.29I 77.52%NM 70.48%EV -9.62%E -7.46%K -33.17%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.99%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.53%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-17 08:00
TABtouch1.32I 75.76%NM 68.84%EV -7.52%E -5.70%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-17 04:25
Grosvenor1.32I 75.76%NM 68.84%EV -7.52%E -5.70%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-17 04:25
LiveScore Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -8.92%E -6.86%K -29.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 04:26
LeoVegas1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -8.92%E -6.86%K -29.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 04:25
Virgin Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -8.92%E -6.86%K -29.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 04:26
LeoVegas (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -8.92%E -6.86%K -29.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 04:25
PMU (FR)1.28I 78.13%NM 69.25%EV -10.32%E -8.06%K -36.86%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.66%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.09%EV -15.77%E -3.22%K -4.04%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-17 04:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.29I 77.52%NM 67.98%EV -9.62%E -7.46%K -33.17%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.53%EV -10.77%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.49%EV -22.65%E -5.03%K -6.47%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-17 08:00
Unibet (FR)1.31I 76.34%NM 69.59%EV -8.22%E -6.27%K -26.51%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.21%EV -12.04%E -1.75%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.20%EV -8.89%E -1.68%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-17 07:35
Winamax (DE)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.14%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -17.14%E -2.64%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.72%EV -5.46%E -0.992%K -1.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 07:35
BoyleSports1.33I 75.19%NM 68.00%EV -6.82%E -5.13%K -20.66%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -17.14%E -2.64%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.09%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-17 01:45
Sky Bet1.29I 77.52%NM 68.66%EV -9.62%E -7.46%K -33.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.63%EV -17.14%E -2.64%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.71%EV -14.05%E -2.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-17 08:00
Winamax (FR)1.31I 76.34%NM 68.65%EV -8.22%E -6.27%K -26.51%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.39%EV -20.33%E -3.25%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.97%EV -8.89%E -1.68%K -2.07%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 07:36
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.37I 72.99%NM 72.07%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.48%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.3%2026-05-17 08:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.37I 72.99%NM 72.07%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.48%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.3%2026-05-17 08:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.37I 72.99%NM 72.07%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.48%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.3%2026-05-17 08:20
Matchbook1.37I 72.99%NM 72.07%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.48%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.3%2026-05-17 08:20
Kalshi1.37I 72.99%NM 71.56%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.77%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.67%2.0%2026-05-17 07:55
Smarkets1.36I 73.53%NM 72.02%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.66%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.32%2.1%2026-05-17 08:20