Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.60
assuming max odds 2.63
assuming max odds 4.33
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ajax (Local): 39.60%; PSV Eindhoven (Visit): 36.88%; Draw: 23.52%. For Ajax (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.53. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.96%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.32%EV +2.96%E +1.14%K +1.85%G +0.055% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 40.27%EV -11.12%E -4.61%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 22.41%EV +1.84%E +0.426%K +0.554%G +0.010% | 3.1% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.30%EV -1.79%E -0.723%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.49%EV -4.11%E -1.58%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.21%EV -1.21%E -0.289%K -0.379%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.30%EV -1.79%E -0.723%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.49%EV -4.11%E -1.58%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.21%EV -1.21%E -0.289%K -0.379%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.30%EV -1.79%E -0.723%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.49%EV -4.11%E -1.58%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.21%EV -1.21%E -0.289%K -0.379%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.52%EV -2.98%E -1.22%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.81%EV -3.01%E -1.14%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.67%EV -3.80%E -0.929%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.01%EV -2.98%E -1.22%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.23%EV -7.80%E -3.12%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.76%EV -1.21%E -0.289%K -0.379%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.80%EV -2.98%E -1.22%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.02%EV -7.80%E -3.12%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.18%EV -3.57%E -0.870%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-02 17:53 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.28%EV -2.98%E -1.22%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.28%EV -9.64%E -3.94%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.90%EV -3.38%E -1.38%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.07%EV -5.59%E -2.18%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.03%EV -7.09%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-02 17:51 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.90%EV -3.38%E -1.38%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.07%EV -5.59%E -2.18%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.03%EV -7.09%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.90%EV -3.38%E -1.38%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.07%EV -5.59%E -2.18%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.03%EV -7.09%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-02 17:51 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.28%EV -3.77%E -1.55%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.43%EV -5.96%E -2.34%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.28%EV -3.57%E -0.870%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.99%EV -3.77%E -1.55%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.90%EV -7.80%E -3.12%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.11%EV -3.57%E -0.870%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -4.17%E -1.72%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -4.11%E -1.58%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -4.17%E -1.72%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -4.11%E -1.58%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.08%EV -4.57%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.08%EV -6.33%E -2.49%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -7.09%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-02 17:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.08%EV -4.57%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.08%EV -6.33%E -2.49%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -7.09%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.63%EV -4.96%E -2.07%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.11%E -1.58%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-02 17:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.63%EV -4.96%E -2.07%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.11%E -1.58%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-02 17:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -4.96%E -2.07%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -5.96%E -2.34%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -7.09%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.06%EV -4.96%E -2.07%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.80%E -3.12%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.06%EV -4.96%E -2.07%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.80%E -3.12%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.77%EV -4.96%E -2.07%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -9.64%E -3.94%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -4.96%E -2.07%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -11.49%E -4.79%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-02 17:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.24%EV -4.96%E -2.07%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.24%EV -11.49%E -4.79%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -4.96%E -2.07%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -11.49%E -4.79%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.62%E -2.80%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -4.96%E -2.07%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -11.49%E -4.79%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.62%E -2.80%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-02 17:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -4.96%E -2.07%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -11.49%E -4.79%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.62%E -2.80%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -4.96%E -2.07%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -11.49%E -4.79%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.62%E -2.80%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.83%EV -5.75%E -2.42%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -4.11%E -1.58%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.70%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.55%EV -5.75%E -2.42%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -5.96%E -2.34%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-02 17:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.24%EV -5.75%E -2.42%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.06%EV -7.06%E -2.80%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 23.70%EV -7.33%E -1.86%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.14%EV -5.75%E -2.42%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.57%EV -8.54%E -3.44%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.14%EV -5.75%E -2.42%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.57%EV -8.54%E -3.44%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.75%E -2.42%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.34%EV -11.49%E -4.79%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.36%EV -6.15%E -2.59%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.32%EV -7.80%E -3.12%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-02 17:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.14%EV -6.94%E -2.95%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.28%EV -4.11%E -1.58%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.62%EV -6.94%E -2.95%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -5.96%E -2.34%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.62%EV -6.94%E -2.95%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -5.96%E -2.34%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-02 17:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.21%EV -6.94%E -2.95%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.86%EV -7.80%E -3.12%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.93%EV -9.45%E -2.45%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.15%EV -6.94%E -2.95%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -9.64%E -3.94%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.29%EV -7.09%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.15%EV -6.94%E -2.95%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -9.64%E -3.94%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.29%EV -7.09%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.12%EV -7.73%E -3.32%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.51%EV -10.38%E -4.27%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.12%EV -7.73%E -3.32%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.51%EV -10.38%E -4.27%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.12%EV -7.73%E -3.32%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.51%EV -10.38%E -4.27%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.66%EV -8.92%E -3.88%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.97%EV -4.11%E -1.58%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-02 17:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.13%EV -8.92%E -3.88%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.20%EV -5.96%E -2.34%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.67%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -8.92%E -3.88%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.90%EV -9.64%E -3.94%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.79%EV -10.62%E -2.80%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.04%EV -9.71%E -4.26%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.57%EV -3.01%E -1.14%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-02 17:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.61%EV -10.90%E -4.84%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -7.80%E -3.12%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.31%EV -10.90%E -4.84%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -9.64%E -3.94%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.67%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.32%EV -10.90%E -4.84%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.11%EV -9.64%E -3.94%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.57%EV -15.33%E -4.26%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.28%EV -12.88%E -5.85%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.61%EV -5.96%E -2.34%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.93I 25.45%NM 23.11%EV -7.56%E -1.92%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-02 17:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.91%EV -12.88%E -5.85%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -7.80%E -3.12%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.08%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.88%EV -12.88%E -5.85%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.02%EV -12.59%E -5.31%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -10.62%E -2.80%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 38.59%EV -12.88%E -5.85%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 35.68%EV -12.23%E -5.14%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.73%EV -22.38%E -6.78%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 17.8% | 2026-05-02 17:51 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.50%EV -14.86%E -6.91%K -12.92%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 36.59%EV -12.23%E -5.14%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.91%EV -10.62%E -2.80%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-05-02 17:40 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.26% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.19% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55% | 1.1% | 2026-05-02 17:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.26% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.19% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55% | 1.1% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.15% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.37% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.49% | 1.4% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.15% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.37% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.49% | 1.4% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.21% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.28% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.51% | 2.0% | 2026-05-02 17:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.00% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.22% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.78% | 2.6% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |