La escuela de los momios

Ajax v PSV Eindhoven

Inicio: 2026-05-02 18:00 UTC

Final: Ajax 2–2 PSV Eindhoven

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Ajax (Local)

Predicción 39.60%2.53momio equitativo
EV +2.96%
Ventaja +1.14%
Kelly +1.85%
Crecimiento +0.055%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.32%39.60%39.55%41.28%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.152.372.402.6046.51%42.19%41.67%38.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

PSV Eindhoven (Visitante)

Predicción 36.88%2.71momio equitativo
EV -3.01%
Ventaja -1.14%
Kelly -1.84%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.63

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.57%36.93%36.91%40.27%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.372.502.502.6342.19%39.96%40.00%38.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 23.52%4.25momio equitativo
EV +1.84%
Ventaja +0.426%
Kelly +0.554%
Crecimiento +0.010%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.41%23.47%23.53%25.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.953.954.3330.30%25.30%25.32%23.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.60I 38.46%NM 37.32%EV +2.96%E +1.14%K +1.85%G +0.055%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.27%EV -11.12%E -4.61%K -7.89%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.41%EV +1.84%E +0.426%K +0.554%G +0.010%3.1%2026-05-02 17:55
Unibet (NL)2.48I 40.32%NM 39.30%EV -1.79%E -0.723%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.49%EV -4.11%E -1.58%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.21%EV -1.21%E -0.289%K -0.379%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-02 17:55
ATG (SE)2.48I 40.32%NM 39.30%EV -1.79%E -0.723%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.49%EV -4.11%E -1.58%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.21%EV -1.21%E -0.289%K -0.379%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-02 17:55
Svenska Spel2.48I 40.32%NM 39.30%EV -1.79%E -0.723%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.49%EV -4.11%E -1.58%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.21%EV -1.21%E -0.289%K -0.379%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-02 17:55
Pinnacle2.45I 40.82%NM 39.52%EV -2.98%E -1.22%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.81%EV -3.01%E -1.14%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.67%EV -3.80%E -0.929%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-02 17:45
Coolbet2.45I 40.82%NM 39.01%EV -2.98%E -1.22%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.23%EV -7.80%E -3.12%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.76%EV -1.21%E -0.289%K -0.379%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-02 17:55
Bet Victor2.45I 40.82%NM 38.80%EV -2.98%E -1.22%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.02%EV -7.80%E -3.12%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.18%EV -3.57%E -0.870%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 17:53
Betr (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.28%EV -2.98%E -1.22%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.28%EV -9.64%E -3.94%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 17:55
BetOnline.ag2.44I 40.98%NM 38.90%EV -3.38%E -1.38%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.07%EV -5.59%E -2.18%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.03%EV -7.09%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 17:51
LowVig.ag2.44I 40.98%NM 38.90%EV -3.38%E -1.38%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.07%EV -5.59%E -2.18%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.03%EV -7.09%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 17:45
BetAnything2.44I 40.98%NM 38.90%EV -3.38%E -1.38%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.07%EV -5.59%E -2.18%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.03%EV -7.09%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 17:51
Unibet (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 39.28%EV -3.77%E -1.55%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.43%EV -5.96%E -2.34%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.28%EV -3.57%E -0.870%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-02 17:55
Unibet2.43I 41.15%NM 38.99%EV -3.77%E -1.55%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.90%EV -7.80%E -3.12%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.11%EV -3.57%E -0.870%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 17:55
NordicBet2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -4.17%E -1.72%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -4.11%E -1.58%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 17:45
Betsson2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -4.17%E -1.72%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -4.11%E -1.58%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 17:45
Bovada2.41I 41.49%NM 39.08%EV -4.57%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.08%EV -6.33%E -2.49%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -7.09%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 17:54
BetUS2.41I 41.49%NM 39.08%EV -4.57%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.08%EV -6.33%E -2.49%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -7.09%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 17:55
Coral2.40I 41.67%NM 39.63%EV -4.96%E -2.07%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.11%E -1.58%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 17:50
Fanatics2.40I 41.67%NM 39.63%EV -4.96%E -2.07%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.11%E -1.58%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 17:50
DraftKings2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -4.96%E -2.07%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -5.96%E -2.34%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -7.09%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 17:55
Casumo2.40I 41.67%NM 39.06%EV -4.96%E -2.07%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.80%E -3.12%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 17:55
betPARX2.40I 41.67%NM 39.06%EV -4.96%E -2.07%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.80%E -3.12%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 17:55
PointsBet (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.77%EV -4.96%E -2.07%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -9.64%E -3.94%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 17:55
Betway2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -4.96%E -2.07%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -11.49%E -4.79%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 17:49
Bet Right2.40I 41.67%NM 38.24%EV -4.96%E -2.07%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.24%EV -11.49%E -4.79%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 17:55
888sport2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -4.96%E -2.07%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -11.49%E -4.79%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.62%E -2.80%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-02 17:55
William Hill2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -4.96%E -2.07%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -11.49%E -4.79%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.62%E -2.80%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-02 17:54
Mr Green (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -4.96%E -2.07%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -11.49%E -4.79%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.62%E -2.80%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-02 17:55
888sport (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -4.96%E -2.07%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -11.49%E -4.79%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.62%E -2.80%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-02 17:55
Unibet (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.83%EV -5.75%E -2.42%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -4.11%E -1.58%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.70%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 17:45
BetMGM2.38I 42.02%NM 39.55%EV -5.75%E -2.42%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -5.96%E -2.34%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 17:49
Marathon Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.24%EV -5.75%E -2.42%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.06%EV -7.06%E -2.80%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.70%EV -7.33%E -1.86%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 17:55
Grosvenor2.38I 42.02%NM 39.14%EV -5.75%E -2.42%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.57%EV -8.54%E -3.44%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 17:55
TABtouch2.38I 42.02%NM 39.14%EV -5.75%E -2.42%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.57%EV -8.54%E -3.44%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 17:55
betfred_uk2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.75%E -2.42%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.34%EV -11.49%E -4.79%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)2.37I 42.19%NM 39.36%EV -6.15%E -2.59%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.32%EV -7.80%E -3.12%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 17:50
Codere (IT)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.14%EV -6.94%E -2.95%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.28%EV -4.11%E -1.58%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 17:45
FanDuel2.35I 42.55%NM 39.62%EV -6.94%E -2.95%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -5.96%E -2.34%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 17:45
Everygame2.35I 42.55%NM 39.62%EV -6.94%E -2.95%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -5.96%E -2.34%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 17:50
PlayUp2.35I 42.55%NM 39.21%EV -6.94%E -2.95%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.86%EV -7.80%E -3.12%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.93%EV -9.45%E -2.45%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 17:45
LeoVegas (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.15%EV -6.94%E -2.95%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -9.64%E -3.94%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.29%EV -7.09%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 17:55
LeoVegas2.35I 42.55%NM 39.15%EV -6.94%E -2.95%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -9.64%E -3.94%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.29%EV -7.09%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 17:55
LiveScore Bet2.33I 42.92%NM 39.12%EV -7.73%E -3.32%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.51%EV -10.38%E -4.27%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-02 17:55
PMU (FR)2.33I 42.92%NM 39.12%EV -7.73%E -3.32%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.51%EV -10.38%E -4.27%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-02 17:55
Virgin Bet2.33I 42.92%NM 39.12%EV -7.73%E -3.32%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.51%EV -10.38%E -4.27%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-02 17:55
Tipico (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.66%EV -8.92%E -3.88%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.97%EV -4.11%E -1.58%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 17:40
SportsBet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.13%EV -8.92%E -3.88%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.20%EV -5.96%E -2.34%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.67%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 17:45
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -8.92%E -3.88%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.90%EV -9.64%E -3.94%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.79%EV -10.62%E -2.80%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-02 17:45
BetRivers2.28I 43.86%NM 41.04%EV -9.71%E -4.26%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.57%EV -3.01%E -1.14%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 17:30
Winamax (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.61%EV -10.90%E -4.84%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -7.80%E -3.12%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-02 17:45
Winamax (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.31%EV -10.90%E -4.84%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -9.64%E -3.94%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.67%EV -5.92%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-02 17:45
Sky Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 39.32%EV -10.90%E -4.84%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.11%EV -9.64%E -3.94%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.57%EV -15.33%E -4.26%K -5.89%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-02 17:45
Betclic (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.28%EV -12.88%E -5.85%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.61%EV -5.96%E -2.34%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 23.11%EV -7.56%E -1.92%K -2.58%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-02 17:44
Unibet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.91%EV -12.88%E -5.85%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -7.80%E -3.12%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.08%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-02 17:45
NetBet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 39.88%EV -12.88%E -5.85%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.02%EV -12.59%E -5.31%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -10.62%E -2.80%K -3.79%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-02 17:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 38.59%EV -12.88%E -5.85%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 35.68%EV -12.23%E -5.14%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.73%EV -22.38%E -6.78%K -9.73%G +0.000%17.8%2026-05-02 17:51
BoyleSports2.15I 46.51%NM 40.50%EV -14.86%E -6.91%K -12.92%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.59%EV -12.23%E -5.14%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.91%EV -10.62%E -2.80%K -3.79%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-02 17:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.26%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.19%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55%1.1%2026-05-02 17:50
Matchbook2.52I 39.68%NM 39.26%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.19%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55%1.1%2026-05-02 17:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.15%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.37%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.49%1.4%2026-05-02 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.15%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.37%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.49%1.4%2026-05-02 17:55
Kalshi2.50I 40.00%NM 39.21%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.28%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.51%2.0%2026-05-02 17:50
Smarkets2.50I 40.00%NM 39.00%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.22%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.78%2.6%2026-05-02 17:55