Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.80
assuming max odds 2.42
assuming max odds 4.20
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ajax (Local): 36.42%; PSV Eindhoven (Visit): 40.03%; Draw: 23.55%. For Ajax (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.75. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.98%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.76%EV +1.98%E +0.706%K +1.10%G +0.022% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.90%EV -4.73%E -1.99%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.34%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV +0.155%E +0.056%K +0.089%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.06%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV +0.155%E +0.056%K +0.089%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.06%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -1.67%E -0.617%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.75%EV -7.13%E -3.07%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.25%EV -3.49%E -1.32%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.03%EV -3.93%E -1.64%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.72%EV -4.62%E -1.14%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.62%EV -3.49%E -1.32%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.17%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-03 03:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.56%EV -3.49%E -1.32%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.27%EV -6.33%E -2.71%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.16%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 06:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.31%EV -3.49%E -1.32%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.69%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -3.49%E -1.32%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -3.49%E -1.32%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -3.49%E -1.32%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.03%EV -4.22%E -1.60%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.41%EV -8.74%E -3.83%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -11.68%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.61%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.17%EV -5.13%E -2.17%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.44%E -0.839%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 08:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.37%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.11%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.52%EV -1.08%E -0.258%K -0.339%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 09:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.37%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.11%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.52%EV -1.08%E -0.258%K -0.339%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 07:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.97%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.66%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-03 23:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.43%EV -9.94%E -4.42%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -12.86%E -3.48%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.86%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 40.64%EV -10.74%E -4.81%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.50%EV -12.86%E -3.48%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.86%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 40.64%EV -10.74%E -4.81%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.50%EV -12.86%E -3.48%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.45%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -13.94%E -6.48%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -11.68%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-03 18:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.66%EV -6.04%E -2.34%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.09%EV -3.13%E -1.29%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.25%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 08:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.66%EV -6.04%E -2.34%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.09%EV -3.13%E -1.29%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.25%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 08:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.05%EV -6.40%E -2.49%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.67%EV -3.93%E -1.64%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.28%EV -3.67%E -0.898%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.05%EV -6.40%E -2.49%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.67%EV -3.93%E -1.64%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.28%EV -3.67%E -0.898%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:14 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.05%EV -6.40%E -2.49%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.67%EV -3.93%E -1.64%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.28%EV -3.67%E -0.898%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:13 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 36.65%EV -6.40%E -2.49%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.09%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.26%EV -4.62%E -1.14%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 08:26 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 36.65%EV -6.40%E -2.49%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.09%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.26%EV -4.62%E -1.14%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 08:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 36.29%EV -6.40%E -2.49%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.03%EV -6.73%E -2.89%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 23.67%EV -7.21%E -1.83%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.46%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.80%EV -3.93%E -1.64%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74%EV -1.08%E -0.258%K -0.339%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-04 08:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.94%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.08%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -3.44%E -0.839%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-03 18:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.94%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.08%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -3.44%E -0.839%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-31 05:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.94%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.08%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -3.44%E -0.839%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 09:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.55%EV -4.73%E -1.99%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 10:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.73%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.86%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-04 08:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.60%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -3.44%E -0.839%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-04 05:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.60%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -3.44%E -0.839%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-04 05:28 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.99%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.56%EV -11.94%E -5.43%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.45%EV -14.04%E -3.85%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-04 12:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.99%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.56%EV -11.94%E -5.43%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.45%EV -14.04%E -3.85%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.99%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.56%EV -11.94%E -5.43%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.45%EV -14.04%E -3.85%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.56%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-30 12:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.56%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-04 08:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.08%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-31 18:03 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.08%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-03 13:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.08%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-31 05:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.86%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.21%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.93%EV -9.33%E -2.42%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-04 08:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-04 07:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-04 07:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-04 07:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-04 07:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 39.76%EV -8.74%E -3.83%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 23.98%EV -10.98%E -2.90%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-04 07:08 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.79%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.67%EV -11.94%E -5.43%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.54%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-03 03:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 40.19%EV -11.14%E -5.02%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.12%EV -12.86%E -3.48%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-04 06:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -10.77%E -4.40%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.78%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.87%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-04 08:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.47%EV -10.77%E -4.40%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.71%EV -9.94%E -4.42%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -11.68%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-02 18:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.14%EV -10.77%E -4.40%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.25%EV -11.94%E -5.43%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.61%EV -11.68%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-03 03:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.38%EV -16.23%E -7.06%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 39.99%EV -13.94%E -6.48%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.63%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 16.3% | 2026-09-04 05:54 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 37.03% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.99% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.98% | 0.0% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.20% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.35% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.44% | 1.6% | 2026-09-04 13:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.20% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.35% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.44% | 1.6% | 2026-09-04 13:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.20% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.35% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.44% | 1.6% | 2026-09-04 13:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.89% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.07% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.04% | 4.0% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |