Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Ajax v PSV Eindhoven

Inicio: 2026-09-05 18:00 UTC

Final: Ajax 1–3 PSV Eindhoven

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Ajax (Local)

Predicción 36.42%2.75momio equitativo
EV +1.98%
Ventaja +0.706%
Kelly +1.10%
Crecimiento +0.022%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.45%36.37%36.48%37.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.302.572.562.8043.48%38.95%39.06%35.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

PSV Eindhoven (Visitante)

Predicción 40.03%2.50momio equitativo
EV -3.13%
Ventaja -1.29%
Kelly -2.20%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.42

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.09%40.05%40.04%41.66%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.152.312.302.4246.51%43.31%43.48%41.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 23.55%4.25momio equitativo
EV -1.08%
Ventaja -0.258%
Kelly -0.339%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.52%23.58%23.49%24.58%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.653.923.924.2027.40%25.51%25.51%23.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Ajax (Local): 36.42%; PSV Eindhoven (Visitante): 40.03%; Empate: 23.55%. Para Ajax (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.75. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.80, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.98%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.76%EV +1.98%E +0.706%K +1.10%G +0.022%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.90%EV -4.73%E -1.99%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.34%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.7%2026-09-04 14:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV +0.155%E +0.056%K +0.089%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.06%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-04 12:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV +0.155%E +0.056%K +0.089%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.06%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-04 12:55
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -1.67%E -0.617%K -0.980%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.75%EV -7.13%E -3.07%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-04 12:55
1xBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.25%EV -3.49%E -1.32%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.03%EV -3.93%E -1.64%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.72%EV -4.62%E -1.14%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-04 14:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.62%EV -3.49%E -1.32%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.17%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 03:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.56%EV -3.49%E -1.32%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.27%EV -6.33%E -2.71%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.16%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 06:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.31%EV -3.49%E -1.32%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.69%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 13:50
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -3.49%E -1.32%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 14:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -3.49%E -1.32%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 14:30
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -3.49%E -1.32%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 14:30
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.03%EV -4.22%E -1.60%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.41%EV -8.74%E -3.83%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -11.68%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 14:30
Pinnacle🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.61%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.17%EV -5.13%E -2.17%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.44%E -0.839%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 08:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.37%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.11%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.52%EV -1.08%E -0.258%K -0.339%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 09:50
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.37%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.11%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.52%EV -1.08%E -0.258%K -0.339%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 07:54
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.97%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.66%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 23:05
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.43%EV -9.94%E -4.42%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -12.86%E -3.48%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 12:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.86%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.64%EV -10.74%E -4.81%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.50%EV -12.86%E -3.48%K -4.76%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-04 14:30
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.86%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.64%EV -10.74%E -4.81%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.50%EV -12.86%E -3.48%K -4.76%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-04 14:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.45%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -13.94%E -6.48%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -11.68%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-03 18:09
NordicBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.66%EV -6.04%E -2.34%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.09%EV -3.13%E -1.29%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.25%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 08:25
Betsson🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.66%EV -6.04%E -2.34%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.09%EV -3.13%E -1.29%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.25%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 08:24
BetOnline.ag🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.05%EV -6.40%E -2.49%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.67%EV -3.93%E -1.64%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.28%EV -3.67%E -0.898%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 13:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.05%EV -6.40%E -2.49%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.67%EV -3.93%E -1.64%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.28%EV -3.67%E -0.898%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 13:14
BetAnything🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.05%EV -6.40%E -2.49%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.67%EV -3.93%E -1.64%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.28%EV -3.67%E -0.898%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 13:13
Bovada🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 36.65%EV -6.40%E -2.49%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.09%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.26%EV -4.62%E -1.14%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 08:26
BetUS🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 36.65%EV -6.40%E -2.49%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.09%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.26%EV -4.62%E -1.14%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 08:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 36.29%EV -6.40%E -2.49%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.03%EV -6.73%E -2.89%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.67%EV -7.21%E -1.83%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 14:30
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.46%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.80%EV -3.93%E -1.64%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74%EV -1.08%E -0.258%K -0.339%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 08:45
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.94%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.08%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -3.44%E -0.839%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 18:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.94%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.08%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -3.44%E -0.839%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 05:39
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.94%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.08%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -3.44%E -0.839%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 09:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.55%EV -4.73%E -1.99%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 10:20
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.73%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.86%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 08:35
Bet Victor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.60%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -3.44%E -0.839%K -1.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 05:25
betano_uk🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.60%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -3.44%E -0.839%K -1.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 05:28
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.99%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.56%EV -11.94%E -5.43%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.45%EV -14.04%E -3.85%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-04 12:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.99%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.56%EV -11.94%E -5.43%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.45%EV -14.04%E -3.85%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-04 12:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.99%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.56%EV -11.94%E -5.43%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.45%EV -14.04%E -3.85%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-04 12:55
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.56%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 12:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.56%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 08:45
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.08%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-31 18:03
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.08%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-03 13:10
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.08%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-31 05:40
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.86%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.21%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.93%EV -9.33%E -2.42%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 08:24
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-04 07:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-04 07:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-04 07:55
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-04 07:54
Betclic (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.76%EV -8.74%E -3.83%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.98%EV -10.98%E -2.90%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-04 07:08
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.79%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.67%EV -11.94%E -5.43%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.54%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-03 03:15
NetBet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 40.19%EV -11.14%E -5.02%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.12%EV -12.86%E -3.48%K -4.76%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-04 06:05
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -10.77%E -4.40%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.78%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.87%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-04 08:45
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.47%EV -10.77%E -4.40%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.71%EV -9.94%E -4.42%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -11.68%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-02 18:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.14%EV -10.77%E -4.40%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.25%EV -11.94%E -5.43%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.61%EV -11.68%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-03 03:10
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.38%EV -16.23%E -7.06%K -12.49%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.99%EV -13.94%E -6.48%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.63%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%16.3%2026-09-04 05:54
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎2.70I 37.04%NM 37.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.99%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.98%0.0%2026-09-04 13:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.20%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.35%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.44%1.6%2026-09-04 13:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.20%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.35%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.44%1.6%2026-09-04 13:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.20%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.35%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.44%1.6%2026-09-04 13:45
Smarkets◎2.68I 37.31%NM 35.89%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.07%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.04%4.0%2026-09-04 14:35