Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Ajax v PSV Eindhoven

Coup d’envoi : 2026-09-05 18:00 UTC

Score final : Ajax 1–3 PSV Eindhoven

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Ajax (Local)

Prévision 36.42%2.75cote équitable
EV +1.98%
Avantage +0.706%
Kelly +1.10%
Croissance +0.022%

avec la cote maximale 2.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
34.45%36.37%36.48%37.46%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.302.572.562.8043.48%38.95%39.06%35.71%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

PSV Eindhoven (Visiteur)

Prévision 40.03%2.50cote équitable
EV -3.13%
Avantage -1.29%
Kelly -2.20%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.42

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
39.09%40.05%40.04%41.66%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.152.312.302.4246.51%43.31%43.48%41.32%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 23.55%4.25cote équitable
EV -1.08%
Avantage -0.258%
Kelly -0.339%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.20

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
22.52%23.58%23.49%24.58%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.653.923.924.2027.40%25.51%25.51%23.81%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Ajax (Local) : 36.42% ; PSV Eindhoven (Visiteur) : 40.03% ; Match nul : 23.55%. Pour Ajax (Local), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 2.75. 3 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 2.80, soit une espérance positive de +1.98%.

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.76%EV +1.98%E +0.706%K +1.10%G +0.022%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.90%EV -4.73%E -1.99%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.34%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.7%2026-09-04 14:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV +0.155%E +0.056%K +0.089%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.06%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-04 12:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV +0.155%E +0.056%K +0.089%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.06%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-04 12:55
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -1.67%E -0.617%K -0.980%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.75%EV -7.13%E -3.07%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-04 12:55
1xBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.25%EV -3.49%E -1.32%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.03%EV -3.93%E -1.64%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.72%EV -4.62%E -1.14%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-04 14:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.62%EV -3.49%E -1.32%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.17%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 03:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.56%EV -3.49%E -1.32%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.27%EV -6.33%E -2.71%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.16%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 06:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.31%EV -3.49%E -1.32%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.69%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 13:50
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -3.49%E -1.32%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 14:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -3.49%E -1.32%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 14:30
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -3.49%E -1.32%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 14:30
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.03%EV -4.22%E -1.60%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.41%EV -8.74%E -3.83%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -11.68%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 14:30
Pinnacle🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.61%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.17%EV -5.13%E -2.17%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.44%E -0.839%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 08:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.37%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.11%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.52%EV -1.08%E -0.258%K -0.339%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 09:50
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.37%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.11%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.52%EV -1.08%E -0.258%K -0.339%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 07:54
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.97%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.66%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 23:05
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.43%EV -9.94%E -4.42%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -12.86%E -3.48%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 12:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.86%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.64%EV -10.74%E -4.81%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.50%EV -12.86%E -3.48%K -4.76%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-04 14:30
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.86%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.64%EV -10.74%E -4.81%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.50%EV -12.86%E -3.48%K -4.76%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-04 14:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.45%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -13.94%E -6.48%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -11.68%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-03 18:09
NordicBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.66%EV -6.04%E -2.34%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.09%EV -3.13%E -1.29%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.25%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 08:25
Betsson🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.66%EV -6.04%E -2.34%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.09%EV -3.13%E -1.29%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.25%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 08:24
BetOnline.ag🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.05%EV -6.40%E -2.49%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.67%EV -3.93%E -1.64%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.28%EV -3.67%E -0.898%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 13:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.05%EV -6.40%E -2.49%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.67%EV -3.93%E -1.64%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.28%EV -3.67%E -0.898%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 13:14
BetAnything🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.05%EV -6.40%E -2.49%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.67%EV -3.93%E -1.64%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.28%EV -3.67%E -0.898%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 13:13
Bovada🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 36.65%EV -6.40%E -2.49%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.09%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.26%EV -4.62%E -1.14%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 08:26
BetUS🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 36.65%EV -6.40%E -2.49%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.09%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.26%EV -4.62%E -1.14%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 08:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 36.29%EV -6.40%E -2.49%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.03%EV -6.73%E -2.89%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.67%EV -7.21%E -1.83%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 14:30
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.46%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.80%EV -3.93%E -1.64%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74%EV -1.08%E -0.258%K -0.339%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 08:45
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.94%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.08%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -3.44%E -0.839%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 18:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.94%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.08%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -3.44%E -0.839%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 05:39
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.94%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.08%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -3.44%E -0.839%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 09:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.55%EV -4.73%E -1.99%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 10:20
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.73%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.86%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 08:35
Bet Victor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.60%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -3.44%E -0.839%K -1.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 05:25
betano_uk🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.60%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -3.44%E -0.839%K -1.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 05:28
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.99%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.56%EV -11.94%E -5.43%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.45%EV -14.04%E -3.85%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-04 12:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.99%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.56%EV -11.94%E -5.43%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.45%EV -14.04%E -3.85%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-04 12:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.99%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.56%EV -11.94%E -5.43%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.45%EV -14.04%E -3.85%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-04 12:55
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.56%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 12:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.56%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 08:45
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.08%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-31 18:03
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.08%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-03 13:10
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.08%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-31 05:40
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.86%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.21%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.93%EV -9.33%E -2.42%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 08:24
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-04 07:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-04 07:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-04 07:55
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-04 07:54
Betclic (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.76%EV -8.74%E -3.83%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.98%EV -10.98%E -2.90%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-04 07:08
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.79%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.67%EV -11.94%E -5.43%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.54%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-03 03:15
NetBet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 40.19%EV -11.14%E -5.02%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.12%EV -12.86%E -3.48%K -4.76%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-04 06:05
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -10.77%E -4.40%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.78%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.87%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-04 08:45
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.47%EV -10.77%E -4.40%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.71%EV -9.94%E -4.42%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -11.68%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-02 18:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.14%EV -10.77%E -4.40%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.25%EV -11.94%E -5.43%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.61%EV -11.68%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-03 03:10
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.38%EV -16.23%E -7.06%K -12.49%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.99%EV -13.94%E -6.48%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.63%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%16.3%2026-09-04 05:54
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Kalshi◎2.70I 37.04%NM 37.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.99%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.98%0.0%2026-09-04 13:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.20%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.35%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.44%1.6%2026-09-04 13:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.20%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.35%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.44%1.6%2026-09-04 13:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.20%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.35%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.44%1.6%2026-09-04 13:45
Smarkets◎2.68I 37.31%NM 35.89%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.07%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.04%4.0%2026-09-04 14:35