L’École des cotes

Ajax v NEC Nijmegen

Coup d’envoi : 2026-02-21 20:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Ajax (Local)

Prévision 52.50%1.90cote équitable
EV -2.87%
Avantage -1.55%
Kelly -3.38%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.85

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
49.56%52.38%52.50%53.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.621.781.801.8561.73%56.10%55.56%54.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

NEC Nijmegen (Visiteur)

Prévision 24.28%4.12cote équitable
EV -0.434%
Avantage -0.106%
Kelly -0.140%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.31%24.37%24.28%25.70%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.353.823.854.1029.85%26.20%25.97%24.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 23.21%4.31cote équitable
EV -0.180%
Avantage -0.042%
Kelly -0.054%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.30

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
22.24%23.25%23.21%25.22%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.403.943.994.3029.41%25.36%25.06%23.26%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Unibet (NL)1.85I 54.05%NM 52.25%EV -2.87%E -1.55%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%EV -0.434%E -0.106%K -0.140%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-21 19:55
Svenska Spel1.85I 54.05%NM 52.25%EV -2.87%E -1.55%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%EV -0.434%E -0.106%K -0.140%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-21 19:55
ATG (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 52.25%EV -2.87%E -1.55%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%EV -0.434%E -0.106%K -0.140%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-21 19:55
NordicBet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.39%EV -2.87%E -1.55%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -10.15%E -2.74%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.91%EV -3.66%E -0.882%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-21 19:55
Betsson1.85I 54.05%NM 51.39%EV -2.87%E -1.55%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -10.15%E -2.74%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.91%EV -3.66%E -0.882%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-21 19:55
1xBet1.84I 54.35%NM 52.61%EV -3.40%E -1.85%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.88%EV -5.53%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.51%EV -0.180%E -0.042%K -0.054%G +0.000%3.3%2026-02-21 19:50
Pinnacle1.83I 54.64%NM 52.74%EV -3.92%E -2.14%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 24.01%EV -2.38%E -0.591%K -0.787%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.26%EV -3.66%E -0.882%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-21 19:50
BetMGM1.83I 54.64%NM 51.70%EV -3.92%E -2.14%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -8.93%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -4.82%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-21 07:40
Coral1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -3.92%E -2.14%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -7.72%E -2.03%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 07:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -3.92%E -2.14%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -8.93%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 07:39
Unibet (SE)1.82I 54.95%NM 52.20%EV -4.45%E -2.44%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV -2.86%E -0.716%K -0.954%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.05%EV -8.30%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-21 19:55
PlayUp1.82I 54.95%NM 50.73%EV -4.45%E -2.44%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -11.36%E -3.11%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -10.63%E -2.76%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-21 19:55
Unibet1.81I 55.25%NM 52.18%EV -4.97%E -2.75%K -6.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -2.86%E -0.716%K -0.954%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-21 19:55
Bet Victor1.80I 55.56%NM 53.23%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -2.86%E -0.716%K -0.954%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.81%EV -2.50%E -0.595%K -0.782%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-21 19:54
Coolbet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -2.86%E -0.716%K -0.954%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-20 05:35
Fanatics1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -2.86%E -0.716%K -0.954%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-21 19:35
Unibet (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.57%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -7.72%E -2.03%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -2.50%E -0.595%K -0.782%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-20 05:35
DraftKings1.80I 55.56%NM 52.45%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.52%EV -6.50%E -1.69%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -4.82%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-21 19:45
Grosvenor1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -2.86%E -0.716%K -0.954%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 19:55
LeoVegas1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -2.86%E -0.716%K -0.954%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 19:55
Casumo1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -2.86%E -0.716%K -0.954%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 19:55
betPARX1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -2.86%E -0.716%K -0.954%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 19:55
Bovada1.80I 55.56%NM 52.15%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -6.50%E -1.69%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-21 19:55
Everygame1.80I 55.56%NM 52.15%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -6.50%E -1.69%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-21 19:00
BetUS1.80I 55.56%NM 52.15%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -6.50%E -1.69%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-21 19:55
BetAnything1.80I 55.56%NM 52.15%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -6.50%E -1.69%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-21 19:55
Betway1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -12.58%E -3.49%K -4.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-21 19:45
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -8.93%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -11.79%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 19:45
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -8.93%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -11.79%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 19:45
888sport (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -8.93%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -11.79%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 19:45
Mr Green (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -8.93%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -11.79%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 19:45
LowVig.ag1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -6.02%E -3.36%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.31%EV -0.434%E -0.106%K -0.140%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.31%EV -4.82%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-21 19:55
BetOnline.ag1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -6.02%E -3.36%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.31%EV -0.434%E -0.106%K -0.140%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.31%EV -4.82%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-21 19:55
Codere (IT)1.79I 55.87%NM 52.59%EV -6.02%E -3.36%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -6.50%E -1.69%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -4.82%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-20 05:35
BetRivers1.79I 55.87%NM 52.12%EV -6.02%E -3.36%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -2.86%E -0.716%K -0.954%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -11.79%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-21 19:45
Betr (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.59%EV -6.55%E -3.68%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -5.29%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 17:40
Marathon Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 52.37%EV -6.55%E -3.68%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%EV -6.50%E -1.69%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.42%EV -7.61%E -1.91%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-21 19:54
TABtouch1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -6.55%E -3.68%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -4.08%E -1.03%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -10.63%E -2.76%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-21 19:55
Tipico (DE)1.77I 56.50%NM 52.73%EV -7.07%E -4.00%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -5.29%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 19:45
Bet Right1.77I 56.50%NM 52.58%EV -7.07%E -4.00%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -5.29%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -8.30%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-21 17:40
PointsBet (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -7.07%E -4.00%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.29%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-21 07:35
FanDuel1.77I 56.50%NM 52.40%EV -7.07%E -4.00%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -7.72%E -2.03%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-21 19:10
Fliff1.77I 56.50%NM 51.58%EV -7.07%E -4.00%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.01%EV -11.36%E -3.11%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.41%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-21 19:45
LeoVegas (SE)1.76I 56.82%NM 52.23%EV -7.60%E -4.32%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -5.29%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -11.79%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 19:55
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -8.12%E -4.64%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -12.58%E -3.49%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -11.79%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.2%2026-02-21 19:10
Sky Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 50.85%EV -8.12%E -4.64%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -15.00%E -4.29%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -12.95%E -3.45%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.4%2026-02-21 19:10
LiveScore Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 52.19%EV -8.65%E -4.97%K -11.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.59%EV -6.50%E -1.69%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.22%EV -12.95%E -3.45%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-21 19:55
Virgin Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 52.19%EV -8.65%E -4.97%K -11.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.59%EV -6.50%E -1.69%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.22%EV -12.95%E -3.45%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-21 19:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 49.56%EV -9.17%E -5.30%K -12.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.22%EV -17.43%E -5.13%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.22%EV -21.07%E -6.20%K -8.78%G +0.000%16.6%2026-02-21 19:38
Winamax (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 52.04%EV -9.70%E -5.64%K -13.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -15.00%E -4.29%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%11.7%2026-02-20 05:35
Parions Sport (FR)1.71I 58.48%NM 52.59%EV -10.22%E -5.98%K -14.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.64%EV -11.36%E -3.11%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.77%EV -8.30%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%11.2%2026-02-21 08:09
BoyleSports1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -10.75%E -6.32%K -15.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -15.00%E -4.29%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%12.4%2026-02-21 17:20
Betclic (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 53.14%EV -11.80%E -7.02%K -17.35%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.26%EV -10.63%E -2.89%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.60%EV -8.30%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%12.0%2026-02-21 19:35
Winamax (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 51.75%EV -12.85%E -7.74%K -19.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.64%EV -18.65%E -5.57%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.61%EV -11.79%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000%16.4%2026-02-20 05:35
NetBet (FR)1.65I 60.61%NM 52.48%EV -13.37%E -8.10%K -20.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.74%EV -15.00%E -4.29%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.79%EV -11.79%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000%15.5%2026-02-21 19:49
PMU (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 51.38%EV -14.95%E -9.23%K -24.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 24.84%EV -18.65%E -5.57%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.78%EV -18.75%E -5.36%K -7.50%G +0.000%20.2%2026-02-21 19:10
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook1.90I 52.63%NM 52.49%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.32%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.19%0.3%2026-02-21 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.17%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.05%0.9%2026-02-21 19:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.17%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.05%0.9%2026-02-21 19:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.17%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.05%0.9%2026-02-21 19:55
Smarkets1.88I 53.19%NM 52.27%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.88%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.85%1.8%2026-02-21 19:55