La escuela de los momios

Ajax v NEC Nijmegen

Inicio: 2026-02-21 20:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Ajax (Local)

Predicción 52.50%1.90momio equitativo
EV -2.87%
Ventaja -1.55%
Kelly -3.38%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.56%52.38%52.50%53.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.621.781.801.8561.73%56.10%55.56%54.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

NEC Nijmegen (Visitante)

Predicción 24.28%4.12momio equitativo
EV -0.434%
Ventaja -0.106%
Kelly -0.140%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.31%24.37%24.28%25.70%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.353.823.854.1029.85%26.20%25.97%24.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 23.21%4.31momio equitativo
EV -0.180%
Ventaja -0.042%
Kelly -0.054%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.24%23.25%23.21%25.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.403.943.994.3029.41%25.36%25.06%23.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)1.85I 54.05%NM 52.25%EV -2.87%E -1.55%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%EV -0.434%E -0.106%K -0.140%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-21 19:55
Svenska Spel1.85I 54.05%NM 52.25%EV -2.87%E -1.55%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%EV -0.434%E -0.106%K -0.140%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-21 19:55
ATG (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 52.25%EV -2.87%E -1.55%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%EV -0.434%E -0.106%K -0.140%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-21 19:55
NordicBet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.39%EV -2.87%E -1.55%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -10.15%E -2.74%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.91%EV -3.66%E -0.882%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-21 19:55
Betsson1.85I 54.05%NM 51.39%EV -2.87%E -1.55%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -10.15%E -2.74%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.91%EV -3.66%E -0.882%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-21 19:55
1xBet1.84I 54.35%NM 52.61%EV -3.40%E -1.85%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.88%EV -5.53%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.51%EV -0.180%E -0.042%K -0.054%G +0.000%3.3%2026-02-21 19:50
Pinnacle1.83I 54.64%NM 52.74%EV -3.92%E -2.14%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 24.01%EV -2.38%E -0.591%K -0.787%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.26%EV -3.66%E -0.882%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-21 19:50
BetMGM1.83I 54.64%NM 51.70%EV -3.92%E -2.14%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -8.93%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -4.82%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-21 07:40
Coral1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -3.92%E -2.14%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -7.72%E -2.03%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 07:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -3.92%E -2.14%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -8.93%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 07:39
Unibet (SE)1.82I 54.95%NM 52.20%EV -4.45%E -2.44%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV -2.86%E -0.716%K -0.954%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.05%EV -8.30%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-21 19:55
PlayUp1.82I 54.95%NM 50.73%EV -4.45%E -2.44%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -11.36%E -3.11%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -10.63%E -2.76%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-21 19:55
Unibet1.81I 55.25%NM 52.18%EV -4.97%E -2.75%K -6.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -2.86%E -0.716%K -0.954%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-21 19:55
Bet Victor1.80I 55.56%NM 53.23%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -2.86%E -0.716%K -0.954%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.81%EV -2.50%E -0.595%K -0.782%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-21 19:54
Coolbet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -2.86%E -0.716%K -0.954%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-20 05:35
Fanatics1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -2.86%E -0.716%K -0.954%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-21 19:35
Unibet (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.57%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -7.72%E -2.03%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -2.50%E -0.595%K -0.782%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-20 05:35
DraftKings1.80I 55.56%NM 52.45%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.52%EV -6.50%E -1.69%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -4.82%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-21 19:45
Grosvenor1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -2.86%E -0.716%K -0.954%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 19:55
LeoVegas1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -2.86%E -0.716%K -0.954%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 19:55
Casumo1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -2.86%E -0.716%K -0.954%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 19:55
betPARX1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -2.86%E -0.716%K -0.954%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 19:55
Bovada1.80I 55.56%NM 52.15%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -6.50%E -1.69%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-21 19:55
Everygame1.80I 55.56%NM 52.15%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -6.50%E -1.69%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-21 19:00
BetUS1.80I 55.56%NM 52.15%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -6.50%E -1.69%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-21 19:55
BetAnything1.80I 55.56%NM 52.15%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -6.50%E -1.69%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-21 19:55
Betway1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -12.58%E -3.49%K -4.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-21 19:45
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -8.93%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -11.79%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 19:45
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -8.93%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -11.79%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 19:45
888sport (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -8.93%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -11.79%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 19:45
Mr Green (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -5.50%E -3.05%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -8.93%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -11.79%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 19:45
LowVig.ag1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -6.02%E -3.36%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.31%EV -0.434%E -0.106%K -0.140%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.31%EV -4.82%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-21 19:55
BetOnline.ag1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -6.02%E -3.36%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.31%EV -0.434%E -0.106%K -0.140%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.31%EV -4.82%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-21 19:55
Codere (IT)1.79I 55.87%NM 52.59%EV -6.02%E -3.36%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -6.50%E -1.69%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -4.82%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-20 05:35
BetRivers1.79I 55.87%NM 52.12%EV -6.02%E -3.36%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -2.86%E -0.716%K -0.954%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -11.79%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-21 19:45
Betr (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.59%EV -6.55%E -3.68%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -5.29%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 17:40
Marathon Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 52.37%EV -6.55%E -3.68%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%EV -6.50%E -1.69%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.42%EV -7.61%E -1.91%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-21 19:54
TABtouch1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -6.55%E -3.68%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -4.08%E -1.03%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -10.63%E -2.76%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-21 19:55
Tipico (DE)1.77I 56.50%NM 52.73%EV -7.07%E -4.00%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -5.29%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 19:45
Bet Right1.77I 56.50%NM 52.58%EV -7.07%E -4.00%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -5.29%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -8.30%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-21 17:40
PointsBet (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -7.07%E -4.00%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.29%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-21 07:35
FanDuel1.77I 56.50%NM 52.40%EV -7.07%E -4.00%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -7.72%E -2.03%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-21 19:10
Fliff1.77I 56.50%NM 51.58%EV -7.07%E -4.00%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.01%EV -11.36%E -3.11%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.41%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-21 19:45
LeoVegas (SE)1.76I 56.82%NM 52.23%EV -7.60%E -4.32%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -5.29%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -11.79%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 19:55
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -8.12%E -4.64%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -12.58%E -3.49%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -11.79%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.2%2026-02-21 19:10
Sky Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 50.85%EV -8.12%E -4.64%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -15.00%E -4.29%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -12.95%E -3.45%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.4%2026-02-21 19:10
LiveScore Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 52.19%EV -8.65%E -4.97%K -11.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.59%EV -6.50%E -1.69%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.22%EV -12.95%E -3.45%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-21 19:55
Virgin Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 52.19%EV -8.65%E -4.97%K -11.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.59%EV -6.50%E -1.69%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.22%EV -12.95%E -3.45%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-21 19:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 49.56%EV -9.17%E -5.30%K -12.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.22%EV -17.43%E -5.13%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.22%EV -21.07%E -6.20%K -8.78%G +0.000%16.6%2026-02-21 19:38
Winamax (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 52.04%EV -9.70%E -5.64%K -13.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -15.00%E -4.29%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%11.7%2026-02-20 05:35
Parions Sport (FR)1.71I 58.48%NM 52.59%EV -10.22%E -5.98%K -14.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.64%EV -11.36%E -3.11%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.77%EV -8.30%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%11.2%2026-02-21 08:09
BoyleSports1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -10.75%E -6.32%K -15.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -15.00%E -4.29%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%12.4%2026-02-21 17:20
Betclic (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 53.14%EV -11.80%E -7.02%K -17.35%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.26%EV -10.63%E -2.89%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.60%EV -8.30%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%12.0%2026-02-21 19:35
Winamax (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 51.75%EV -12.85%E -7.74%K -19.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.64%EV -18.65%E -5.57%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.61%EV -11.79%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000%16.4%2026-02-20 05:35
NetBet (FR)1.65I 60.61%NM 52.48%EV -13.37%E -8.10%K -20.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.74%EV -15.00%E -4.29%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.79%EV -11.79%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000%15.5%2026-02-21 19:49
PMU (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 51.38%EV -14.95%E -9.23%K -24.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 24.84%EV -18.65%E -5.57%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.78%EV -18.75%E -5.36%K -7.50%G +0.000%20.2%2026-02-21 19:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.90I 52.63%NM 52.49%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.32%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.19%0.3%2026-02-21 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.17%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.05%0.9%2026-02-21 19:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.17%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.05%0.9%2026-02-21 19:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.17%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.05%0.9%2026-02-21 19:55
Smarkets1.88I 53.19%NM 52.27%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.88%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.85%1.8%2026-02-21 19:55