The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Ajax v Heerenveen

2026-08-16 14:45 UTC — Dutch Eredivisie

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ajax (Local)

Prediction 59.25%1.69fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -3.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.41%59.25%59.37%59.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.571.571.6566.67%63.74%63.69%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Heerenveen (Visit)

Prediction 19.49%5.13fair odd
EV -0.403%
Edge -0.079%
Kelly -0.098%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.81%19.49%19.42%20.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.704.805.1123.81%21.27%20.83%19.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.26%4.70fair odd
EV -4.32%
Edge -0.961%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.19%21.26%21.21%22.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.274.204.5025.64%23.44%23.81%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Ajax (Local): 59.25%; Heerenveen (Visit): 19.49%; Draw: 21.26%. For Heerenveen (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.13. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 5.11, with an expected value of -0.403%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.25%EV -2.24%E -1.36%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.11I 19.57%NM 18.81%EV -0.403%E -0.079%K -0.098%G +0.000%4.19I 23.87%NM 22.94%EV -10.91%E -2.60%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-08 11:42
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.68%EV -5.20%E -3.25%K -8.67%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10%EV -2.55%E -0.509%K -0.637%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.22%EV -4.32%E -0.961%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-08 11:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.93%EV -5.20%E -3.25%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%EV -6.44%E -1.34%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -6.45%E -1.47%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-08 11:44
SportsBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.39%EV -6.98%E -4.45%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.42%EV -6.44%E -1.34%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -6.45%E -1.47%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 11:44
FanDuel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.39%EV -6.98%E -4.45%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.42%EV -6.44%E -1.34%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -6.45%E -1.47%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 11:48
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -6.98%E -4.45%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -10.34%E -2.25%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.70%E -2.55%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-08 11:44
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.68%EV -9.35%E -6.11%K -17.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.95%EV -12.29%E -2.73%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -10.70%E -2.55%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-08 11:44
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.68%EV -9.35%E -6.11%K -17.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.95%EV -12.29%E -2.73%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -10.70%E -2.55%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-08 11:49
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.41%EV -11.13%E -7.42%K -22.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.50%EV -18.14%E -4.32%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.08%EV -17.08%E -4.38%K -5.89%G +0.000%16.1%2026-08-08 11:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.