Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.48
assuming max odds 7.01
assuming max odds 5.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ajax (Local): 65.14%; Heerenveen (Visit): 15.39%; Draw: 19.46%. For Heerenveen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.50. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.01, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.90%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.31%EV -4.89%E -3.35%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 7.01I 14.27%NM 13.81%EV +7.90%E +1.13%K +1.31%G +0.104% | 4.87I 20.53%NM 19.88%EV -5.21%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-16 14:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.73%EV -3.59%E -2.42%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.41%EV +3.90%E +0.577%K +0.678%G +0.026% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.85%EV -4.62%E -0.944%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-16 14:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.73%EV -3.59%E -2.42%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.41%EV +3.90%E +0.577%K +0.678%G +0.026% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.85%EV -4.62%E -0.944%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-16 14:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.19%EV -5.54%E -3.82%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.22%EV +3.90%E +0.577%K +0.678%G +0.026% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.59%EV -4.62%E -0.944%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-16 14:34 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.25%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.68%EV +0.049%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-16 13:18 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.25%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.68%EV +0.049%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-16 13:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.59%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV +0.049%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -7.54%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 14:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.76%EV -7.50%E -5.28%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV +0.049%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -8.52%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 14:34 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.76%EV -7.50%E -5.28%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV +0.049%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -8.52%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 14:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.48%EV -7.50%E -5.28%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV +0.049%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -10.46%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-16 14:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.48%EV -4.24%E -2.88%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 6.47I 15.46%NM 14.88%EV -0.413%E -0.064%K -0.076%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.64%EV -4.62%E -0.944%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-16 14:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.40%EV -4.24%E -2.88%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.79%EV -1.49%E -0.233%K -0.276%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.81%EV -11.44%E -2.51%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-16 13:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.40%EV -4.24%E -2.88%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.79%EV -1.49%E -0.233%K -0.276%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.81%EV -11.44%E -2.51%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-16 13:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.70%EV -5.54%E -3.82%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.24%EV -3.80%E -0.608%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-16 11:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.19%EV -5.54%E -3.82%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.12%EV -3.80%E -0.608%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -6.57%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 11:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.23%EV -6.84%E -4.79%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -3.80%E -0.608%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -8.52%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 14:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -6.84%E -4.79%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -3.80%E -0.608%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -10.46%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-16 14:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -6.84%E -4.79%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -3.80%E -0.608%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -10.46%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-16 14:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -6.84%E -4.79%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -3.80%E -0.608%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -10.46%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-16 14:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.82%EV -7.50%E -5.28%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV -3.80%E -0.608%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -12.41%E -2.76%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-16 14:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.30%EV -4.89%E -3.35%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -6.11%E -1.00%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-16 13:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.30%EV -4.89%E -3.35%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -6.11%E -1.00%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-16 13:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.30%EV -4.89%E -3.35%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -6.11%E -1.00%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-16 13:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.30%EV -4.89%E -3.35%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -6.11%E -1.00%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-16 13:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.71%EV -6.84%E -4.79%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.17%EV -6.11%E -1.00%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -10.46%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-16 14:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.31%EV -3.59%E -2.42%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -6.57%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-16 14:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.29%EV -5.54%E -3.82%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.93%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-16 14:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.04%EV -5.54%E -3.82%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.25%EV -4.62%E -0.944%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 14:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-16 14:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-16 13:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.78%EV -5.54%E -3.82%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -6.57%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-16 14:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.78%EV -5.54%E -3.82%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -6.57%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-16 14:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -5.54%E -3.82%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -7.54%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 14:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -6.57%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-16 14:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.12%EV -7.50%E -5.28%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.47%EV -7.54%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-16 11:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-16 14:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-16 14:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-16 14:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-16 14:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.13%EV -7.50%E -5.28%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.70%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-16 14:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.03%EV -8.80%E -6.29%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -10.46%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-14 15:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.29%EV -8.15%E -5.78%K -19.87%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.60%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-16 14:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.29%EV -8.15%E -5.78%K -19.87%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.60%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-16 14:34 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.83%EV -8.80%E -6.29%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -18.25%E -4.35%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-16 14:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.11%EV -11.40%E -8.39%K -31.68%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.13%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-16 14:34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.11%EV -11.40%E -8.39%K -31.68%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.13%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-16 14:34 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 64.91%EV -10.10%E -7.32%K -26.58%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.18%EV -9.19%E -1.56%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.91%EV -12.41%E -2.76%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-16 14:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.12%EV -8.80%E -6.29%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.48%EV -10.73%E -1.85%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.40%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-16 14:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.12%EV -8.80%E -6.29%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.48%EV -10.73%E -1.85%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.40%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-16 14:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.12%EV -8.80%E -6.29%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.48%EV -10.73%E -1.85%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.40%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-16 14:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.12%EV -6.84%E -4.79%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -11.50%E -2.00%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.93%EV -10.46%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-16 11:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.25%EV -10.10%E -7.32%K -26.58%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.80%EV -12.27%E -2.15%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -7.54%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-16 14:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.76%EV -8.15%E -5.78%K -19.87%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.60%EV -15.34%E -2.79%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -4.62%E -0.944%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-16 14:29 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.55%EV -8.80%E -6.29%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -15.34%E -2.79%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.02%EV -7.54%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-16 13:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 64.44%EV -9.45%E -6.80%K -24.23%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.90%EV -18.42%E -3.48%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.66%EV -6.57%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-16 14:29 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.66% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.07% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27% | 0.7% | 2026-08-16 14:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.43% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.37% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20% | 1.0% | 2026-08-16 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.43% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.37% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20% | 1.0% | 2026-08-16 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.43% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.37% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20% | 1.0% | 2026-08-16 14:35 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.32% | 7.14I 14.01%NM 13.86% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.81% | 1.0% | 2026-08-16 14:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.58% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.32% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.11% | 1.5% | 2026-08-16 14:40 |